Weekly Preview: Rocket Mortgage Classic

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Detroit Golf Club
Detroit, MI

The PGA Tour heads to Michigan for the fourth Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Much like the 3M Open in Minnesota, we don't have a very deep field, but there is at least a bit more firepower at the top. Speaking of this past week, with only a few big names in the field, it was both surprising and encouraging to see Tony Finau come out on top. It's not often that one of the big names in a weaker field winds up in the winner's circle, but that's exactly what happened, so congrats to the folks at the 3M Open who wound up with a worthy champion.

As for this week, Finau is in the field along with a couple other high-end golfers in Patrick Cantlay and Will Zalatoris. While the 3M Open finds itself in a tough spot on the schedule, the Rocket Mortgage Classic sits in a pretty good spot, two weeks removed from the Open Championship and two weeks in advance of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. For those near the top of the standings looking to get a tune-up in before the three-week playoff stretch, this is the perfect spot, as they can take next week off if needed.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Cam Davis shot a final round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Troy Merritt.

FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay (8-1)

After the favorite won in Minnesota, it makes sense that the Rocket Mortgage Classic favorite checks in with odds that are a bit ridiculous. There's no doubt Cantlay is the best player in the field, but as I alluded to above, it's pretty rare that the favorite wins in these situations. This is Cantlay's first trip here, which doesn't necessarily dissuade me as much as the odds do.

Will Zalatoris (12-1)

We now know that Zalatoris won't pick up his first career major win this year. He came close on several occasions, but in the end, he couldn't seal the deal. We're now back to square one, which is Zalatoris grinding it out every week looking for his first PGA Tour win of any kind. It's inevitable that it will happen somewhere soon, and this looks like a decent spot. At this price, though, I think I'll pass.

Max Homa (14-1)

In the span of about 12 months, Homa has gone from underrated to properly rated. It's not often a player who has success is thought of in the proper terms, but it feels like we all are on the same page regarding Homa. He's not going to rip off a ton of wins in a short span, but he's capable of winning anytime he tees it up. This week he's being shown a good deal of respect as one of the favorites, yet he's only a marginal play, as there isn't a ton of value at this number.

THE NEXT TIER

Cameron Young (18-1)

Young could be considered one of the favorites, but there aren't many "mid-tier" prices on the betting board, so I have to stretch my definition of that term a bit. Young is quickly budding into a solid player on the PGA Tour, and even the majors are fair territory now. This will be Young's first start at this event, but as we've seen a couple times this year, that should not be a deterrent. At this number, there is some value on a win bet.

Maverick McNealy (25-1)

McNealy is having himself quite the season. He enters this week 29th in the FedExCup Standings, banking over $2.5 million in earnings. He disappointed this past week with a T49 in a weak field, but over his previous three starts he posted two top-10s and a top-20 in the three starts. He has experience on this track, notching a T8 in 2020 and a T21 this past year.

Kevin Kisner (35-1)

Even with a stretch of four consecutive missed cuts earlier this year, Kisner has managed to stay within striking range of a top-30 spot in the standings. He currently sits at No. 32, and with a good showing in Detroit, he could enter the playoffs inside the top 30. Kisner played well in his past two starts, recording a T21 at the Open Championship and a T6 the week prior. His track record here is solid, with two top-10s in three starts.

LONG SHOTS

Webb Simpson (50-1)

If Simpson is serious about making the playoffs, he needs to get going and fast. He still has the safety blanket of the Wyndham Championship, so he may not need to do anything here, but it would be a good idea to round into form before next week's event. Simpson is not in the best form right now, but he knows the stakes and I expect him to turn it up a notch. Simpson has one top-10 in two starts here.

Doug Ghim (100-1)

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Ghim is close to winning, but he's definitely close to contending and the distance between those two can be as short as one final round or as long as several years -- I'm looking at you, Tony Finau. As for Ghim, he posted three top-20s in his past six starts, and each time one round above 70 derailed his chances to win. This past week that poor round happened to come Sunday. One of these weeks he's going to get it figured out.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Max Homa - I just can't imagine there are many OAD players with either Cantlay or Zalatoris available, so I'm looking at Homa as the most popular pick. Homa is a solid play, as not only has he raised his ceiling, he's also improved his consistency. I have only one reservation about Homa this week, which I'll get to in a moment.

Moderately-owned Pick: Kevin Kisner - If you've used all the favorites, you'll need to look at the second-tier guys, and at the top of that list is Kisner, who has a better track record at Detroit GC than just about anyone in the field. His form is decent, which makes me believe he can make another run here.

Lightly-owned Pick: Doug Ghim - We are really getting down the list with Ghim, but if you need to make up ground and want to ensure no one else matches your pick, Ghim could be your guy. Even though he blew up in the final round in Minnesota, he still managed a top-20. If he can put together four quality rounds, that could turn into a top-5.

Buyer Beware: Patrick Cantlay - I'll point out first that this doesn't mean I don't like Cantlay's chances this week. It just means you might not get what you expect. In this case, if you use Cantlay you are probably expecting a win. I would caution you by stating that it's not often a heavy favorite wins a golf tournament.

Last Week: Joohyung Kim - T26 - $55,875

Season Total: $10,536,640

This Week: Kevin Kisner - Back to the aforementioned Homa comment. This pick came down to Homa or Kisner, because like many of you, I don't have a ton of options left. With that in mind, I'm choosing to save Homa for the playoffs, as he's currently top-10 in the standings and will be available for all three events. As for Kisner, he's not a default pick in this spot, but he has the history and form to do some damage on this course.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Max Homa ($11,500)
Middle Range: Kevin Kisner ($10,700)
Lower Range: Doug Ghim ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Cam Davis - T16

Streak: 1

This Week: Kevin Kisner - I'm going to double-up on Kisner for a few reasons. The first couple were already noted. The third is that you never know who is going to show up for these non-premier events. This past week, Finau and Sungjae Im played well, but Hideki Matsuyama did not and withdrew. You want a guy who is invested, and given his track record, you know Kisner will be all-in.