Weekly PGA Preview: Henley's Home in Houston

It started a few weeks ago when Tiger Woods started to play well. The odds were updated and Tiger was suddenly on top, but I'm not talking about odds, I'm talking about preparation. Not the preparation of the golfers, preparation of those who will partake in Masters pools.

Although there are four majors on the PGA Tour schedule, no tournament captures the attention of golf fans in the United States quite like the Masters. With that comes added preparation and speculation. Speculation such as, is Tiger really the favorite, or just the betting favorite? Is Bubba the new favorite after winning last week? Let's not forget the track record; Bubba has two Green Jackets, you know. What about J.T.? Has anyone played better than him over the last couple months? Do we give up on D.J.? He hasn't won on the mainland this year; he's probably a non-factor, right?

The answer to every question is yes ... and no. Anyone who watched the Dell Match Play event knows that momentum can change within one single hole, let alone from hole to hole, so why wouldn't it change day to day or week to week? That guy who is on fire now? Well, that fire could be doused with one bad hole at Augusta. The point is to not get too excited about form headed into the Masters. Augusta is a beast unto its own and if you know how to get around it, you know how to get around it, if you don't, then it doesn't matter how well you are playing in the weeks leading up to it.

Keep that in mind as a new Houston Open winner is crowned this week. He might look like the best player on the planet this week, but next week they're playing on a different planet.

This week: Houston Open - Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas

Last Year: Russell Henley shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Sung Kang.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Russell Henley

Henley has not been sharp this season, but he hasn't been so bad that I wouldn't consider him this week. The reasons to consider him go well beyond his win here last year. Henley's track record here is incredible, with three top-10s in addition to his win in five starts.

Henrik Stenson

Stenson was on his game two weeks ago at Bay Hill and if not for Rory McIlroy catching fire late Sunday, Stenson might have won. He decided to skip last week's match-play event, which will probably help his cause this week. Stenson has finished runner-up at this event twice and considering his current form, another top-2 is certainly in play again this week.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson was on a roll entering the match-play event in Austin last week, and though he didn't fare well, it's easy to dismiss that result as it's match play on a unique course. Mickelson has a solid track record at this event with six top-20s in his last seven starts, including a win in 2011.

Luke List

List has been quite the revelation with seven top-25s, three top-10s and nearly $2 million in earnings already this season. He fell flat last week at the match-play event, but again, quirky event on a quirky course, we can just throw that out. List does not have a lengthy history here. He has only played this event three times, but he showed that he can get around this track last year when he finished in the top 3.

J.B. Holmes

Holmes is certainly not on top of his game entering this week, but if there's any place where he could find his game, it's this venue. Holmes won this event in 2015, finished runner-up in 2009 and has four top-20s in eight starts.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Brandt Snedeker

Snedeker shows signs a few weeks ago that his game might be coming around, but if his track record here is an indication of what's to come this week, he might lose some momentum heading into Augusta. Snedeker has played this event four times and he's yet to make a cut here.

Scott Stallings

It's not a stretch to say that Stallings is a better golfer now than at any point in the past, but even if that's true, he has a lot of bad mojo to overcome this week. Stallings has teed it up here six times and has made the cut once, posting at least one round of 75 or higher in each of his last four starts.

Matt Jones

Jones won this event in 2014 and at the time, it looked like he was a player on the rise. Four years later we know that's not the case, and even though he might have some good vibes here, it's not enough to overcome his current form. Jones missed the cut in three of his last four tour starts.

Lee Westwood

When Westwood was a better player, he was pretty good at this event, but his game has really dropped the last couple years and with it, his results at this event. Westwood hasn't made a cut at this event since 2014. He's still a big name, but he doesn't have the game to contend now.

Bill Haas

It's been a rough year for Haas, both on and off the course, and though he's bound to find his game at some point this season, it probably won't be this week as his track record at this event is pretty bad. Haas has made only two cuts at this event in seven starts.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Paul Casey (T17) - $97,916; Season - $3,903,032

This week: Henrik Stenson - I've used a lot of big guns this season already and I was thinking about saving Stenson for a major or a WGC event. But there are so many golfers in play now for big events that I think it's best to just pull the trigger whenever it seems wise. And it's certainly seems wise this week with Stenson.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

This Week:

Starters: Henrik Stenson, Luke List, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley

Bench: Justin Rose, J.B. Holmes

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: N/A - N/A - (N/A); Streak - 1

This week: Scott Piercy - Piercy is not the most reliable golfer in this format, but this week he's about as reliable as it gets. Piercy has played this event six times and made the cut each time. Piercy has played well on the weekend here in his last three starts as well, so it's certainly no fluke that he's making the cut every year.