Weekly Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Orlando as the Arnold Palmer Invitational gets underway. 

Have I mentioned how much I love this new schedule? Last week was supposed to be the lull in an otherwise outstanding five-week stretch of golf that culminates with the PLAYERS next week, but as luck would have it, the Honda Classic turned out to be quite entertaining. No, we didn't have the big names battling down the stretch like we had in previous weeks, but we had a couple good storylines, including Chris Kirk, who has been through quite a bit since he last hoisted a trophy on the PGA Tour. Now, we can't expect that level of drama every week outside of the elevated events, but like I've said before, we don't need a great event every week, if we could get a handful of entertaining events outside of the elevated events this season, then the new schedule will be considered a smashing success. Now, onto this week, another elevated events with a stellar field. The beauty of the new schedule is that you have all of these top players playing in sync, so there's little question about form. Jon Rahm, he played two weeks ago, as did Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and all the other elite players. We have a great gauge on form because they've all played within the past two weeks, it's not like previous years where one guy has been off for five weeks and the other has played in each of those five weeks. This should make things easier for us going forward. As for the course, we're at Bay Hill again, so plenty of course history to use this week.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7:05 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 72 on his way to a one-stroke victory over three players, including Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

As far as the odds are concerned, there are now three players clear of everyone else on a weekly basis. Within that group, Rahm is the frontrunner and the only way that changes is if McIlroy goes on a run. Rahm has played this event just once, so these odds are based solely on the fact that he's in form and he's the best player in the world. Is that enough to carry him to another win? I wouldn't bet against him, but I'm still not a fan of taking anyone with odds this low to start an event.

Scottie Scheffler (15-2)

I was a little surprised to see Scheffler behind McIlroy to start the week, and his odds are now lower than his counterpart's. Both players have won here and although McIlroy's track record is much more extensive, Scheffler's current form more than makes up for that. McIlroy has always been a darling of the betting public, but at least for one week, Scheffler gets the edge. Among the top trio, Scheffler is the play to make this week.

Rory McIlroy (17-2)

With Rahm now the favorite whenever he tees it up, we're seeing some better odds on McIlroy, and he's almost to the point where some value is starting to emerge. I say almost because this number is really light for anyone in a field like this, but McIlroy does have one huge advantage over Rahm, and that's his history here. McIlroy is a perfect 8-for-8 in cuts made and finished outside the top 20 just once in those eight starts. He also won this event in 2018. With the odds factored in, I prefer McIlroy over Rahm this week.

THE NEXT TIER

Max Homa (20-1)

Don't buy into the narrative that Homa only plays well out west. He's got the game to play anywhere, and while most of his success has happened out west, it doesn't preclude him from playing well in Florida. His track record here is pretty good, with three top-25s in three starts, and we know his form is rock solid, so perhaps he finds another win this week.

Viktor Hovland (20-1)

Hovland's game has been all over the map in the past 15 months, but he looks to be settling back into the player we thought he was going to be when he first joined the PGA Tour. Hovland hasn't been great this season, but he's been good enough to get noticed. He's hanging around at these events, but he's just not finding that final gear. That could change as he returns to the site of a runner-up finish this past year.

Matt Fitzpatrick (31-1)

If his form were better, his odds could be even lower, because Fitzpatrick's track record here is pretty solid. He has missed two cuts in eight starts, but on the six occasions in which he played the weekend he found his way into the top 10 four times. His best finish was a solo second in 2019, so we know the upside is there. The question is, can he turn his game around and make a run this week?

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (55-1)

Sometimes you have to make a play based on principle alone. Burns has not shown his "A" game this season, but he did post a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. These odds are generally reserved for golfers that have never had much success or ones that are well past their prime. Burns does not fall into either of those categories. In fact, he's still on his way up. He's just hit a bit of a lull -- one that he could pull out of at any moment.

Billy Horschel (110-1)

This is the same situation as Burns. Horschel is a golfer who is not past his prime, who knows how to win but hasn't played his best this season. Horschel is not at the level of Burns currently, but he's still a very accomplished player who has plenty left in the tank. He's also known to play well in Florida, so at this number he's worth a look. Horschel was one of three players who finished one stroke back of Scheffler here last year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - As we've talked about already this season, there's no need to save the best players for the majors now that the prize pool is almost as big during the elevated events. The only question on McIlroy is his form. He won overseas a few weeks ago, but he hasn't played that well in the states since that win. He does have the track record here however, so I can't argue with this pick.

Moderately-owned Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick - Same as McIlroy, the biggest question on Fitzpatrick this week is his form. He's got the track record here and if the wind is up, then you want a guy like Fitzpatrick who won't get rattled by the conditions. Fitzpatrick's form is a little more troubling than McIlroy's however as he's made just a third of his cuts this year.

Lightly-owned Pick: Billy Horschel - If this weren't an elevated event, I think Horschel would be more popular, but since the stakes are so high most OAD players are going to be looking for someone a little further up the list. Horschel likes to play in Florida, and he's had some success here in the past, so he's a good option if you are looking to break from the pack.

Buyer Beware: Collin Morikawa - Morikawa looks to be back on track after an off 2022 season, but one thing he hasn't figured out yet is how to play in the wind again. He didn't seem to struggle with the wind early in his career, but anytime the wind has been up over the past 12 months, including in recent months, Morikawa has been awful. With high winds projected late Thursday and all of Friday, I'm steering clear of Morikawa.

This Week: Keith Mitchell - I sincerely hope I'm making this pick because it's the best play and not because I'm tired of being stuck in the pack, but whatever the reason, Mitchell is my play this week. This was not an easy pick; I probably spent more time on this pick than any other to this point. One thing to remember, even though you don't need to save the elite players because the purses are just as big this week, you still want to have some players left than can win a major. I say this because I thought long and hard about using Scheffler this week, but in the end, I decided to save him for a major. As for Mitchell, he has two top-10s here in four starts and he's played well over the past month. One additional note with the potential winds, I don't want to use a big name this week only to have him struggle with the wind and miss the cut.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($11,800)
Middle Range: Tyrrell Hatton ($10,400)
Lower Range: Lucas Herbert ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Tyrrell Hatton - It's rare that both of my picks do not appear anywhere else in the article, but that's the case this week as there are a lot of good options. Hatton would be a good OAD pick as well, but I think he'll be a little too popular for my taste. As for this format, he's a good pick because he's never missed a cut in six tries here. Further, he's finished outside the top 30 just once in this event.

Previous Results