This article is part of our Weekly PGA Recap series.
If you had been told in advance that a golfer who played at the University of Alabama was going to win the 3M Open, you're first thought probably wouldn't have been Lee Hodges. You'd have thought that Justin Thomas had finally broken out of his slump, qualified for the playoffs and now would certainly be on the upcoming Ryder Cup team.
But only one Crimson Tide alum had been playing anywhere near decently lately, and it wasn't Thomas.
Hodges won for the first time on the PGA Tour, by a deceptive seven strokes over the trio of J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman and Martin Laird. Hodges did have a large lead almost the entire weekend, but it had been whittled to three with one hole to go. And with the 18th at TPC Twin Cities being water-laden and one of the hardest par-5s on Tour, as they say, anything could've happened.
It did.
Poston tripled and Hodges birdied and the winning margin became even bigger than Brian Harman's at the Open Championship the week before.
By then, Thomas was long gone, having missed his fifth cut in seven starts. So, to recap: The Alabama alum who had a good week was not Thomas and the J.T. who had (mostly) a good week also was not Thomas. More on Thomas in a minute.
Hodges is in his second season on Tour; this was his 65th event. He had come close once before, losing a 54-hole lead at the 2022 Amex in only his 14th Tour start.
The Alabama native has had some moments in between the close call and the win. He had top-10s earlier this season at the CJ Cup and the Valero. He was 12th at both the Memorial and Canadian Open.
So he's surely a decent golfer. But he also just turned 28, a late bloomer for sure. And he had not been in the top-50 in any strokes-gained metric before the 3M. Now, he's inside on only one, sitting 49th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's ranked 122nd in greens in regulation.
We aren't prepared to say that Hodges had the week of his life, because he surely could win again at some point. But this sure seems like an aberration in a watered-down field the week after a major.
But for now, Hodges is the 54th best golfer in the world, according to the OWGR. And, at 33rd in the FedExCup Standings, he's guaranteed to get into at least the second playoff event, the BMW Championship. One of the perks of getting into the BMW is that it also gets you into all eight designated events next season, those with the $20 million purses.
Hodges' bank account, golf career and life just changed dramatically.
The question is, how much better of a golfer is he than he was just last week?
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Justin Thomas
Let's get Thomas out of the way first, since he's the biggest story of the week. He missed another cut, this time by two strokes, despite a spirited finish in which he birdied four of his final five holes on Friday. He fell from 75th to 79th in the points standings, and now will need a top-20 or maybe a top-15 at this week's Wyndham to sneak into the top-70 playoff threshold at the last possible moment. Perhaps of even greater importance to Thomas than making the playoffs is making the Ryder Cup team. Zach Johnson will have a very hard decision if Thomas misses another cut this week. The six captain's picks will be named after the Tour Championship. By then, Thomas could be idle for weeks, while his competitors for a captain's pick could be impressing in the playoffs.
J.T. Poston
Poston had second place locked up. On the final hole of the tournament, he was three behind Hodges and three ahead of the two guys in third place. As long as he avoided the water on 18, as long as he didn't triple-bogey, he'd make $850,000 and earn 300 FedEx Cup points for second place. After a tee ball that almost went in the water, a layup was the only sensible play. Poston went for the green from a bad lie more than 200 yards out. The shot never had a chance. It rinsed. Poston tripled. He lost more than a quarter of a million dollars and more than 90 points after winding up in a three-way tie for second. He said he'd do it again. It made zero sense. He is now 49th in FedEx points. If he had safely taken the solo second, he'd be in 38th place, a virtual lock for the BMW Championship and all of next season's $20 million designated events. There are eight of them. It was a terrible decision.
Martin Laird
Laird had his best finish since winning the 2020 Shriners. Don't read much into it. It was a great week but that's all it was. He climbed to 111th in the FedEx Cup point standings and the top-125 keep their cards for next season. But remember, that won't be settled after the Wyndham like it used to; it will be determined at the end of the fall season in November.
Kevin Streelman
The 44-year-old keeps chugging along, taking a one-third share of runner-up. Streelman moved to 84th in points, so he'd need another top-10, or better, to qualify for the playoffs. If nothing else, he'll surely be in the top-125 at the end of the fall season so he'll keep his playing privileges for 2024.
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell has had a subpar season. This tie for fifth was his first top-10 since February. He moved to 57th in points, which ensures he's in the playoffs. But it's too soon to know whether this was anything more than one good week amid a season of mostly bad ones.
Dylan Wu
The golfer who resides in the $6000s on DraftKings continued a season of finishes better than that price point would suggest. Wu tied for fifth – the best showing of his PGA Tour career, now in its second full season. He jumped to 85th in the point standings, which is a fantastic season for him. But he'd need a similar week at the Wyndham to sneak into the playoffs.
Tony Finau
The defending 3M champion tied for seventh. Was it enough to show Zach Johnson he should be on the Ryder Cup team? Finau is in the top-10 in the point standings, so his situation is nothing like Thomas'. But the majority of those points were front-loaded. Finau is guaranteed two and probably all three playoff events, so he has time to further pad his resume for Johnson.
Sam Ryder
Ryder shot 29 on the back on Sunday to zoom into a tie for seventh. That moved him from a precarious 69th in the point standings to 62nd. That cushion should be plenty big enough to get him into the playoffs.
Aaron Baddeley
Baddeley tied for seventh, which gets him into the Wyndham. He's 92nd in points, so the playoffs are unlikely. But being 92nd even at this juncture would seem to be enough to stay inside the top-125 even after the entire fall season in November. That would ensure Baddeley's playing privileges for 2024 in his age-43 season.
Billy Horschel
To illustrate how hard it is for anyone to move up the standings with anything outside of a top-5 finish, consider Horschel's week. He tied for 13th, yet moved up only three spots, from 119th to 116th. Horschel will need a top-5, maybe a top-4, at the Wyndham to get inside the top-70. He has railed about there being too few playoff spots. Horschel has had a terrible season and finishing in the top 125 is no certainty. That doesn't mean he isn't right about too few guys getting into the playoffs.
FedExCup Standings Top 70
Here are the guys precariously on the inside of the top 70 heading into the Wyndham: No. 66 Vincent Norrman, No. 67 J.J. Spaun, No. 68 Ben Griffin, No. 69 Cam Davis and No. 70 Austin Eckroat. Davis moved up from 77th with a tie for 10th at the 3M, but none of these guys is certain of a playoff spot just yet. For Eckroat, who has played so well the past few months but missed the 3M cut, missing the playoffs would ruin his best season on Tour. With Hodges and Davis moving into the top 70, Ben Taylor and K.H. Lee fell out.
MISSED CUTS
Thomas was the big name, but there were also Cameron Young, Sepp Straka, Gary Woodland, Sahith Theegala and Ludvig Aberg. Young could get a pass since he was in the thick of things on Sunday at the Open Championship. But he probably still has to show Zach Johnson more to get on the Ryder Cup team. Woodland sits 97th in points and likely will miss the playoffs. Aberg would need a win at the Wyndham to qualify for the playoffs.
