This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The Sentry
Kapalua Resort
Kapalua, HI
The PGA Tour heads to Hawaii for the lid-lifter on the 2024 schedule.
As we begin a new season, there are of course several storylines to keep an eye on. The LIV Golf situation has not faded away, and while we have no idea what will come of the merger that was discussed last summer, one thing is for certain: LIV plucked one of the best players from the PGA Tour.
What has happened since has spoken volumes in that no one has joined the since-departed Jon Rahm. From a PGA Tour player's perspective, perhaps the desire to leave is lower now that Rahm is gone. After all, they no longer have to worry about beating him on a weekly basis. I once thought that if any of the top 10 players went to LIV that would open the floodgates, but apparently I was wrong, and I couldn't be happier about that. Losing Rahm is a big blow because he was one of the guys that could be counted on to play at a high level almost every time he teed it up, but there are still plenty of good players out there, some of which will no doubt capitalize on his absence.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Wednesday.
LAST YEAR
Jon Rahm shot a final-round 63 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Collin Morikawa.
FAVORITES
Scottie Scheffler (11-2)
With Rahm gone the door is open for Scheffler to completely take over the PGA Tour, but will he? Scheffler is such a reliable ball striker that it really just comes down to the putter. He seemed to get things figured out late last year, so it would make sense if he comes out of the gates hot. I would not generally wager on odds like this, but in a smaller field it might actually be a sound play.
Viktor Hovland (10-1)
This past season the discussion about "the best golfer in the world" generally revolved around Scheffler and Rahm. This season, Hovland could replace the latter. Sure, Rahm can still win majors, but he's essentially an afterthought until April unless you are a LIV fan. Hovland had a big hole in his game until this past year, but now that the short game has improved there's no stopping him. As for this week, his track record here isn't great and that doesn't pair well with odds like this, so I will pass.
Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
Cantlay is also someone who should benefit from Rahm's absence, as he has been a top-5/top-10 guy for a while now and should be able to take advantage. Is he in the conversation with Scheffler and Hovland for best in the world? No, but if everything falls into place he could have a massive season. His track record in Hawaii is pretty solid, with two top-5s in five starts. At this price there is some value, but I'd probably look elsewhere.
THE NEXT TIER
Ludvig Aberg (16-1)
Now it gets real. Aberg took the PGA Tour by storm this past fall, living up to or even surpassing all expectations, but now comes the real test. Aberg could be the next big thing, or he might fade as the competition gets tougher. My guess is that he continues playing at a high level in 2024. If he's as good as we think, it will be tough to get odds like this on him later in the season.
Tom Kim (25-1)
Speaking of the next big thing, Kim entered the last campaign with a ton of momentum, and things didn't really pan out for him. That's not a huge surprise, as it's extremely rare for a young kid to sustain success throughout his first full run on the PGA Tour. Now that he has a year under his belt and the spotlight isn't as bright, I'm expecting Kim to play his best golf. Like Aberg, if Kim gets off to a strong start the odds are going to shrink fast.
Tony Finau (35-1)
Perhaps it's too early to go with a hunch, but then again, we haven't seen most of these guys for a while, so maybe this is the perfect time to do so. Finau has played well here in the past, but he hasn't posted a top-5, so the track record really isn't driving this pick. The reason I like him this week -- and even this season -- is the way everything has played out with the LIV talk. It's not that Finau is the most important player on the PGA Tour, but if he had left immediately after Rahm, we could have seen more defections. Finau's refusal to leave seems to have stemmed the tide. The point being, it's nice to feel wanted and appreciated and I think Finau is feeling both right now. That should only help him this week and beyond.
LONG SHOTS
Cameron Young (35-1)
He's now the same price as Finau, but he opened at 40-1 so we will list him here. There are a handful of really good players that underperformed last year and Young is certainly in that group. However, I'm expecting a bounceback from him, and if he plays well this week you won't see odds in this range anytime soon. Young is just too talented to have a season like he had this past year. He's a top-10/top-15 golfer and will show that again very soon.
Harris English (90-1)
English was nowhere near the top of his game this past year, but he has come full circle more than once in his career, so there's a chance he makes another comeback. He's a former champion here, and not that long ago. He won this event in 2021, and even though it's unclear what shape his game is in, we are getting odds like this against a short field.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-Chosen Pick: Collin Morikawa - If OAD players are looking at course history, then Morikawa is bound to be a popular pick. He finished runner-up here this past year and has finished no worse than T7 in four Kapalua starts. He's certainly a good option if you want to hold onto Scheffler and Hovland.
Moderately-Chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg - Aberg is going to be an interesting study when it comes to OAD pools. There will be a group of players wanting to strike now while the iron is seemingly still hot, a group wanting to hold him for later in the season and a group that thinks he's overhyped and might not use him unless he shows he can beat the best. I'm in group one or two, but I don't think we need to save him for a major quite yet, so this could be a good spot.
Lightly-Chosen Pick: Cameron Young - It's a bit of a gamble using Young before he gets going, but he is guaranteed a check this week, so maybe? Then again, that guaranteed check isn't as big as it was this past year because the field is larger. There is some potential value here, as I don't believe many will be on Young.
Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler / Viktor Hovland - As is often the case for this pick, this isn't to say that either of these guys will play poorly. It's more about roster management. Yes, both of them are great, but we have no idea about their current form, and do you really want to burn one of them in the season opener?
This Week: Tom Kim - I don't believe that any golfer can maintain momentum across a three-month layoff, but even without that, Kim's Shriners win in October should provide a big confidence boost moving forward. Kim struggled for much of the past season, but he got it figured out near the end and should hit the ground running.
FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Collin Morikawa ($11,800)
Middle Range: Tony Finau ($10,400)
Lower Range: Sahith Theegala ($9,000)
