Weekly PGA Preview: RBC Heritage

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head Island, SC

The PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head Island, SC this week as the RBC Heritage gets underway. 

Before we get to Hilton Head, I have to take a look back at what happened this past week at the Masters. By now you've heard all the opinions and stats surrounding Rory McIlroy's win and there's nothing new I can add to the mix, so I'll simply tell you what I noticed this past week as someone that's been following this game for the past 30 years. 

The first thing I noticed was Rory repeating his tendencies from the past. This started on Thursday, after getting to four-under as he finished hole 14 on Thursday, Rory looked to be a in a great spot heading into round 2. Two shots later he was still in a great spot, but that third shot, the one that trickled into the water changed everything. I Tweeted at the time that I didn't think Rory could rebound from that and truth be told, he didn't…right away anyway, as he posted another double bogey just two holes later. He went from a great spot to middle of the pack in just two holes and honestly, that's the first time I thought he was done, but it wasn't the last.

He wasn't done however. Leaving the scars of the 15th-hole behind him, Rory came back on Friday and started like nothing had happened on Thursday. This was the first time I noticed his resolve. It's one thing to say a golfer just needs to forget about a bad hole and move on, but it's another thing for that golfer to actually do it. To his credit, it looked like he had actually put that disastrous Thursday finish behind him. By the end of Friday, he was back in the mix.

Saturday could not have started any better, he was pouring in 3s like Steph Curry. Rory took a solid Friday round and continued to build on Saturday. This was the first time I noticed that he could actually win. It wasn't even the scores he was posting that gave me this notion, but it was his demeanor. He was on a mission, and he wasn't going to be stopped. Make no mistake, if they had played 36 holes on Saturday, Rory would have won by 10 strokes.

But they don't play the final 36 holes in one day, unless the weather forces them to, so McIlroy had even more time to deal with the only thing between himself and a career Grand Slam – his mind.

The scars were plenty. A decade plus of close calls, yet no majors, 14 years since a great chance slipped through his hands at Augusta. Nothing about Sunday was going to be easy, lead or no lead and to no surprise, that lead vanished in an instant on Sunday, but things were different this time. Where in past years Rory might have let this opening hole disaster derail his entire round, this time he steadied himself. This was the first time I noticed that Rory had the ability to regroup within a round in a spot like this.

Bryson DeChambeau's lead after the second hole was brief, Rory took the lead back soon after and never looked back…is how it looked like this story would play out after 10 holes on Sunday, but we all knew better.

Though he had weathered the storm and built a four-stroke lead, Hole 11 was the first time I noticed that Rory wasn't actually in control. A wobbly approach to 11, one that could have easily reached the water was the first indication that he had a long way to go to close this out. DeChambeau helped Rory's cause by choosing to go for the pin at 11, a decision that the CBS commentators seemed to agree with, but I still can't fathom, yet it was made and it ended any chance of Bryson being a factor. With McIlroy's history, it amazed me that DeChambeau thought he had to make his move on of all places, the 11th green, but that wasn't the story on this day, Rory was the story and even after the bogey on 11, he appeared to be in the clear.

As he approached his 3rd shot at the par-5 13th, it seemed a forgone conclusion that Rory would complete the career grand slam, after all, he had a big lead, he was in a great spot on 13 and no one appeared ready to make a charge, but that's when I noticed that Rory wasn't in fact in a great space mentally, that he was still carrying all that baggage. In what can only be described as a yip from the fairway, Rory instantly inserted drama back into this final round.

It was around that time that Justin Rose decided that he would be the lone golfer to make a charge at Rory and with the two golfers headed in opposite directions now, this was bound to be a Masters for the ages.

Two holes later, with Rose charging and Rory stalling, with everything seemingly slipping away from McIlroy, this was the first time I noticed Rory's true resolve. A beautiful approach to the 15th green left everyone stunned. We knew he could do it, but under the circumstances, considering everything that had unfolded just 30 minutes earlier, I wasn't sure he had it in him, but he did and although the missed the eagle putt, it didn't matter. What mattered was that he had the resolve to come back from disappointment time and time again. It's something that we'd never seen from Rory in a major before and it meant that no matter what happened over the final three holes, Rory had a chance to win.

His chance to win came on the 72nd-hole, a putt that he makes 9/10 times for his first Masters and the career Grand Slam, yet we know how this story goes, right? Nothing had been easy on this Sunday, so why would he make this putt and provide relief to all the golf fans that had been on the edge of their seats all day?

It would have been easy for McIlroy to crumble after all the disappointment of so many chances to close out the win in regulation, but to his credit, he stayed strong and provided two great shots in the playoff to finally edge Justin Rose. That's when I noticed just how much this all meant to Rory.

A fist pump, a jump in the air, a huge scream, these are all common reactions to winning a major, but as Rory fell to the ground and wept after making that final putt, it was clear that all these years of trying to get that last piece to the puzzle actually meant as much to him as it did to us. Often times we project our desires onto professional athletes and it's not exactly clear if they want "it" as bad as we want it for them, but in that moment, when we couldn't see his face, we could only see the signs of a man that was heaving from tears, we knew just how much this chase had meant to him for all these years.

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LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final round 68 on his way to a three-stroke win over Sahith Theegala.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+360) 

Last week I stated that Scheffler's odds needed to be higher, that there was no reason why he should be at 5-1 entering the Masters and that proved true. This week is a different story however and these odds appear to be exactly where they should be. Scheffler has yet to win this season, but it's not as if he's playing poorly. Heck, just this past week you could have sworn that his game was off the rails, and he ended up in 4th-place! He's very close and he's going to win soon. I think this is the week he gets win No. 1 of 2025.   

Collin Morikawa (11-1)

Morikawa was a popular pick this past week at the Masters and although he played well in spurts, he was never a factor at Augusta. Morikawa's track record here is good, but not great. He has two top-10s in five starts, with his best showing a T7 in 2021. His form is good enough to get back into the winner's circle, but this winless drought is going to become a thing if he doesn't win soon. I think he plays well this week, but at this price, there just isn't enough value.

Ludvig Aberg (12-1)

Aberg played well for 71 holes at Augusta, but he blew up on the last hole and ruined what was a pretty solid week for him. With that said, his form was solid for almost the entire tournament, so I'm guessing he'll play well again this time around. Then again, he had plenty of opportunities to make it into the playoff on Sunday if he made a putt or two and didn't blow up on the final hole, so perhaps we'll see some scar tissue from that. My guess is that if he starts well, he'll be in the mix on Sunday, if not, he could be a non-factor by the end of Thursday.    

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Corey Conners (22-1)

Conners had a good track record at The Masters, so it wasn't a surprise to see him play well. What was a surprise was the fact that he was in the mix on Sunday, well, he was in the mix until he missed a bunny on the 1st-hole, but I digress. Conners has the form to contend this week and although his track record here isn't great, he did post a T4 at this event in 2021.  

Russell Henley (25-1)

It would be easy to load these next two sections with guys that played well a week ago, but as we all know, previous week's play is not always an indicator of how things will go in the current week. Henley was a popular under the radar play at Augusta, but things did not go as planned. Still, I think Henley bounces back as he's shown the ability to not only play well at signature events, but to win them. He's had enough success here to make me think he can be a factor at Harbour Town if he can wash off the stain from Augusta

Sepp Straka (45-1)        

I can't bring up Straka this week without mentioning how he missed the cut at Augusta. After a terrible opening round, Straka was on a huge roll in Friday's round, only to finish bogey-triple to miss the cut. Even with that finish however, he still shot 71, which goes to show how well he was playing up until that point. If he can get over the disappointing of missing the cut in that manner, he should be all good to go. His track record here is all over the place, but he does have two top-5s here in his past three starts.

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LONG SHOTS

Brian Harman (80-1)    

This isn't Augusta, there aren't many golfers in the field with strong/consistent track records here, so when you see Harman's track record here, it looks pretty darn solid. Harman has 15 starts here, with 11 made cuts and three top-10s, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Harman has finished inside the top-15 here in three of his past four starts, and he's finished outside the top-35 just once in his past eight starts here. He also won two weeks ago and played well enough to make the cut at Augusta.

Sahith Theegala (80-1)

Things are starting to come together for Theegala, who has struggled for much of this season. He finished T29 at Augusta and he's returning to a site where he's had a lot of success. Theegala finished runner-up here a year ago and finished T5 the year prior. His game has been off for most of this season, but a return to Harbour Town might be what he needs to kick start his season. It's a long shot that he can go from just making cuts to a win, but that's why we're getting these huge odds on him this week. Once he starts playing well again, we won't get anything near this number. 

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay – The form isn't great, but it's good enough that he could make a run on a course he's very familiar with. If you're wondering why this is the first you've seen of him in this article it's because he isn't among the top-three favorites this week, but his odds are currently at 18-1, so there's no spot above where he fits. Anyhow, his track record here is going to draw a lot of attention. Cantlay has finished inside the top-three here in five of seven starts! Like I said, he's going to be a popular play, so if you are in a good spot, then go with Cantlay, but I'd imagine his ownership will be very high.

Moderately-Chosen Pick:  Scottie Scheffler – If you somehow haven't used him yet, this is the week. I can't imagine there are many OAD players left that haven't used him, but I believe this is the week, so if you've got him, use him now. Sure, he's going to be a factor at the majors, but he'll have to deal with the LIV players and Rory, so why not take him when all of those players are absent, and he seems to be rounding into form?

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Sepp Straka – Straka is having a great season, but his play has fallen off just enough to go under the radar this week. His track record here suggests that he'll get back on track this week though, so if you're looking for a golfer that could help you jump up in the standings this week, then Straka if your man.      

Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth – To be honest, I'm a bit surprised his odds are down at 40-1 this week, I thought they would be lower considering he won this event in 2022 and finished runner-up in 2023. On paper he looks like a solid play, but the same could have been said this past week at The Masters and he wasn't a factor. It looks like Spieth is close to finding his best game, but there's something not quite right just yet. Perhaps he just needs more time to recover from his injury or perhaps it's something more. Whatever the case, I don't think he's ready to contend quite yet.

This Week: Sepp Straka – After falling even further behind this past week at The Masters, I am not fully committed to playing under the radar picks the rest of the way. With so much ground to make up, I need to take guys that will have less than 20% ownership each week and I think Straka falls into that category. He's coming off a disappointing MC at Augusta, but his form overall this season has been great, and he's posted top-5s in two of his past three starts at this event.  

Previous Results

Visit the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
Middle Range: Sepp Straka ($10,200)
Lower Range: Sahith Theegala ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: No cut this week

Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit our PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.