Weekly PGA Preview: PGA Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

PGA Championship

Quail Hollow Club
Charlotte, NC

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for season's second major.

It's PGA Championship week, so as is custom around these parts, I don't want to spend much time looking back, but before we get to the matter at hand this week, I should mention what Sepp Straka is doing this year. Straka started the year off on fire and while many in his position would simply coast off his accomplishments, Straka has not slowed down at all. He picked up another signature win this past week and has already made this season a career best. A major would be the cherry on top, but even if he falls flat in every event the rest of the way, it will still be an incredible season. Now, let's take a peek at what's in store this week.

The best part about the lead-up to any major is the collection of story lines. Prior to the Masters, there were plenty and that is true again heading into the PGA Championship.

We'll start at the top, for what I think is the most fascinating story heading into this week and that's the odds of the two at the top. You'll see exactly what I'm talking about in a minute, but I can't remember a pair of players with odds this small entering a major. We've seen Scottie Scheffler at less than 5-1 and of course Tiger Woods has been there, but never have we seen two guys in that range, but with Rory McIlroy's play this season, the odds makers were forced to do it.

I can honestly say I'm not sure which of the two I'd favor this week. Scheffler is the best player in the world, and he's finally rounded into form, but Rory won the last major and no longer has the burden of chasing the career grand slam.

Speaking of career Grand Slam, Jordan Spieth can complete his own with a win, but he's not getting nearly the attention that Rory was getting prior to the Masters. The reason, of course, is that Spieth's not nearly as likely to win this week as Rory was this past month. That however might work in Spieth's favor as he has been playing well this season.

As with all the majors, we also have the return of the LIV golfers, which outside of Bryson DeChambeau haven't been much of a factor over the past year, so I'm not sure how much of a story that is any longer. It used to be a LIV vs. PGA thing at the majors, but since almost of the LIV guys have checked out over the past 13 months, it's pretty much just a chance to see how well DeChambeau plays.

There are plenty more story lines, I can't get to them all, but something tells me that as this week unfolds, we're going to be focused on three guys, and I think you know which ones I'm talking about.  

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LAST YEAR

Xander Schauffele shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory of Bryson DeChambeau. 

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (9-2) 

If Scheffler had not won two weeks ago, he would not have been the favorite this week for the first time in over two years, but he did win and he looked amazing while winning, so he's right back atop the odds chart. The only thing working against Scheffler this week is his unfamiliarity with this course, which normally wouldn't matter, but there are some big guns in the field that have played this course a lot over the years, so it could come into play. Scheffler is one of a few guys that can win this week, but obviously I'm not fond of the number he's getting.  

Rory McIlroy (9-2)

The only thing not to like about McIlroy this week is that there's nothing not to like about McIlroy. It sounds stupid, but I get a little worried when everything points to a good performance and everything does point to a solid week, so does that mean he's going to flop? Not likely. Maybe if he hadn't just won the Masters I'd be more worried, but the huge pressure release is going to change Rory. All of those close calls over the past decade no longer matter, there's no baggage there, it's just about golf and that's where he can thrive. His track record at this course is outstanding and no that he's playing freely, he has a chance at grabbing the first two majors this season.  

Bryson DeChambeau (7-1)

This the new "Big 3" at the majors, which is a little strange considering there's a guy just outside this group that won two majors last year. But it is what it is, people like betting on these three guys. There's plenty of reason to like DeChambeau this week as he's become a staple atop the leaderboard at just about every major over the past 13 months. DeChambeau also played well on this course prior to his departure to LIV. In three starts at Quail Hollow, DeChambeau has posted two top-10s, including a solo fourth in 2018.   

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Justin Thomas (20-1)

Like McIlroy, Thomas was dealing with some demons over the past couple years as well, but also like McIlroy, he seemingly vanquished those demons with a win earlier this year. The next step would be to win another major and he's certainly capable of doing that. Thomas has played very well this season and now that he's got the burden of that winless streak behind him, he can play more freely. Thomas has also had a lot of success on this course. He won the PGA Championship on this course in 2017 and his worst showing, from four starts at the Truist was a T26 in 2021.

Xander Schauffele (22-1)

I just mentioned Schauffele's name, but he really is getting lost in the shuffle here and you have to wonder if that bothers him at all. He won two majors this past year, he's the defending champion this week and all anyone can talk about are the two guys at the top of the odds chart. Schauffele has been working his way back from injury all season and he's still a work in progress, but he knows this course well, he finished runner up in 2023 and 2024 and he's highly motivated, so maybe gets back to his old self this week.    

Tommy Fleetwood (45-1)          

It wasn't that long ago that it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Fleetwood would win a major at some point in his career, and though he's come close a few times, he's yet to get over that hurdle. Well, maybe 2025 will end up being the year that several golfers get that one big win they've been waiting for. McIlroy got his, as did JT, so maybe Fleetwood is next? Okay, it's a bit flimsy, but I'm simply trying to justify what is essentially a hunch. Fleetwood always seems to be hanging around, but never can close the deal. Maybe that changes this week. He's played well on this course, and he's fared pretty well with the PGA setups over the years, so maybe it all clicks.

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LONG SHOTS

Jordan Spieth (55-1)     

Can you imagine two guys completing career grand slams in the same season? If Spieth were to win this week, it would vault the 2025 season into one of the best seasons in the history of golf. The question is, can he do it? Well, the odds are stacked against him, but Spieth has shown winning form in recent weeks, he just hasn't actually won. This track record at PGA Championships is a bit scattered, but he did finish runner-up in 2015 and T3 in 2019. He landed in the top-30 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.     

Corey Conners (70-1)  

Is Conners set for a breakthrough win? This would be quite unexpected, but Conners seems to have the tools to win a major. Conners has played well at the PGA Championship over the years, but he's lacking the high-end finishes, which could change this week. Conners has fared well on this course over the past two years, posting a T13 at the Truist in 2022 and a T8 in 2023. If someone outside the top group is to win this week, it could be a guy like Conners, who has the game, but just hasn't quite put it all together at a major yet.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Rory McIlroy – At this point in the season, I can't imagine that many teams have Scheffler left at their disposal, but McIlroy is still probably in the mix for a bunch of teams as few would have trusted him at the Masters. If you've still got him, this is the spot to use him. His confidence is at maybe an all-time high and he's going to have a sense of freedom that we haven't seen in over a decade.     

Moderately-Chosen Pick:  Justin Thomas – With the top-3 getting most of the attention this week, Thomas might slip under the radar. Now that he's found the winner's circle again, he, like McIlroy, should be playing with a sense of freedom as well. Also like McIlroy, Thomas has a strong track record on this course, so I'd be shocked if he's not at least in the mix come Sunday.  

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Corey Conners – Anyone outside the top 4-5 guys is going to be lightly owned this week, so you have plenty of guys to choose from, but if you're looking to make up some ground, yet you want to play it safe as well, then Conners is your guy. I have no doubt that he'll make the cut and be hanging around the top-20 or so, it's just a matter of whether he can find that extra gear and actually contend on Sunday.         

Buyer Beware: Ludvig Aberg – Just a week ago I picked him as my winner, but that did not work out at all. Aberg is going to be a popular play at the majors moving forward, and with good reason, but he seems to be fighting something right now and I don't like his chances at all this week. Perhaps he's hyper-focused on the majors now which is affecting his performance at the other events, but even if that's the case, can he really turn it around this quickly? He started well at the Truist and then the wheels came off. I'm not sure he can turn it around in time to be a factor.

My Pick: Bryson DeChambeau – I should have used DeChambeau at the Masters, but hopefully I can make up for that by getting a good performance from him this week. I've used a lot of big guns already this season, so I need to focus on the LIV guys while they are available. DeChambeau is obviously the top LIV guy this week, so that's who I'm going with.          

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400)
Middle Range: Justin Thomas ($10,600)
Lower Range: Daniel Berger ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Rory McIlroy – unlike the OAD situation, I've got plenty of big guns left in this format, so there's no reason to hold back this week. McIlroy has the form and more importantly, the course history here that puts him a notch above anyone else.