U.S. Open Preview: Koepka Shoots for 3-Peat

The PGA Tour heads back to Pebble Beach this week for the 119th U.S. Open. The first 116 were won by golfers not named Brooks Koepka, and the last two, well, you get the point. Will Koepka become the second golfer in U.S. Open history to win three consecutive titles after Willie Anderson in 1903-05? That's just one of many story lines this week. 

We also have Tiger Woods aiming for major number 16, Phil Mickelson going for the career grand slam, Rory McIlroy attempting to go back-to-back on the PGA Tour and Dustin Johnson trying to capture major No. 2 on a course with which he is  very familiar. There are plenty more story lines, of course, and those will develop as the week goes on, but if any of the aforementioned plot lines pick up steam after Thursday, it's going to be one heck of a week. Aside from the golfers, Pebble Beach will also take center stage with its picturesque views and challenging layout. 

Speaking of the layout, let's hope  the USGA does not take center stage this week as it often does when the set up becomes borderline unplayable. Although the course will not play exactly like it does during the AT&T Pro-Am, there will certainly be a level of comfort among those who have played well here.    

This Week: The U.S. Open – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif.

Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Tommy Fleetwood.  

FAVORITES: 

Brooks Koepka (15-2) 

If this event were at more of a neutral site, Koepka would be a heavier favorite, but since we are at Pebble and some notables in the field have strong track records here, Koepka is merely a strong favorite. There's nothing not to like about Koepka this week, however. Not only is he the two-time defending champ at the U.S. Open, but he's the unquestioned best major golfer in the world. Koepka did not participate in the previous U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, but he finishED T8 in his only start at the AT&T Pro-Am.    

Dustin Johnson (8-1)   

If not for Koepka's performance during the majors the Last couple years, DJ would be the clear favorite this week. As it is, DJ is a close second, trailing Koepka by just a smidge this week. DJ has only one major championship on his resume, but he's come close several times and he has somewhat of a home-course advantage this week. While not his "home course," DJ has had plenty of success at Pebble Beach, winning the AT&T Pro-Am twice and finishing in the top-5 in seven of the last 10 years. His lone major also came on a USGA layout in 2016.   

Rory McIlroy (8-1) 

Were it not for his impressive win last week at the Canadian Open, McIlroy would likely not have been among the favorites this week, but his play was so impressive, it made him hard to ignore. That said, I wouldn't get too excited about his prospects this week. You know how teams in any sport want to peak at the right time? Well, McIlroy peaked a week too early and in this sport, it's not exactly easy to carry spectacular form from one event to the next. That's not to say that he won't be a factor this week; McIlroy should be in the mix at some point, but I don't see him winning.         

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Tiger Woods (9-1) 

If not for his missed cut at the PGA Championship, Woods would be contesting Koepka and Johnson as the odds-on favorite this week. Woods knows how to get around Pebble under USGA conditions, and though he looked rusty a month ago, he looked much better in his most recent start. Tiger had the edge over Koepka at Augusta because he knows Augusta, just like he knows Pebble. Tiger is one reason this U.S. Open isn't technically on a neutral site. It's like a hybrid between a regular U.S. Open and the Masters. Some golfers have an edge this week before they even tee off.    

Patrick Cantlay (16-1) 

Cantlay was in the sweet spot a couple weeks ago at the Memorial. His game was peaking and there wasn't that much buzz surrounding him. For all we know, his game is still sharp, but there's much more buzz surrounding him entering this week and that's rarely a good thing. It's not that he can't overcome the added attention and expectations, but he certainly has his work cut out for him. Still, Cantlay might be a special player, one who gets better as the stage gets bigger. We'll find out a lot about him this week.   

Xander Schauffele (25-1) 

There are a lot of options around this price range, but Schauffele looks like the best. He didn't fare well in his only start at Pebble, but that was during the AT&T Pro-Am and we all know how Schauffele saves his best for the big stage. In that aspect, he's kind of like Koepka-light. Schauffele has played extremely well at the majors the last couple seasons and it's only a matter of time before he breaks through. He may not win this week, but he'll be in contention.        

LONGSHOTS

Phil Mickelson (50-1)  

This feels like a gift. I know his game isn't anything better than 50-1, but there are some variables with Mickelson that aren't reflected in the odds. Mickelson has won multiple majors and knows how to maneuver his way around a USGA layout, but more important than anything else is his familiarity with Pebble Beach. Mickelson has won on this course five times! He's finished first or second in three of his last four starts at the AT&T Pro-Am. Mickelson finished T4 when the U.S. Open was held here in 2010 and T16 in 2000. If he gets off to a good start, he'll be a factor on Sunday.     

Viktor Hovland (250-1) 

When we get into longshot range, we are either looking for guys who have the slimmest chance of winning or guys who could surprise with a solid effort. Hovland, still an amateur, falls into the latter category. Hovland is here because he dismantled the amateur competition at Pebble Beach last year, but that's not the only reason to like him this week. He was also the high-amateur at The Masters (T32) just two months ago. Lest you think he's not ready for the big leagues, he's turning pro on Monday.   

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - Anyone that has yet to use DJ this year, likely will pull the trigger on him in this spot. In fact, many OAD players have him sitting on him for this very moment, and I can't blame them. I burned Johnson earlier this year, but if I had him, I would use him here. He's my top pick this week, even over Koepka – and you all know how much respect I have for Koepka at the majors.          

Moderately Owned Pick: Tiger Woods - If Woods had fared better at the PGA Championship, he would have likely been the most popular pick this week. As it stands, he'll still be popular, but I'm guessing DJ will have higher ownership. I don't have Woods available either this week, otherwise I wouldn't hesitate to use him here. In fact, he's third on my list this week, behind DJ and Koepka.        
Lightly Owned Pick: Jason Day - It feels like people are starting to sour on Day, and there's certainly reason to feel that way, but I don't think this is the spot to give up on him. The reason, of course, is his history on this course. Day has never missed a cut at the AT&T Pro-Am in nine tries. He finished in the top-6 in six of those starts. Day also runs hot and cold at the U.S. Open, finishing in the top-10 in five of his eight starts and missing the cut in two. That tells me that he's up to the challenge at the U.S. Open ... if he likes the track and he likes this track.                

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - McIlroy was at his peak last weekend in Canada, and if this were a normal PGA Tour stop, perhaps that form would carry over, but there's a reason why it's so difficult to win the week before a major and back that up with another win – it's almost a different game. Well, mentally, it is a different game. No disrespect to the Canadian Open, but the pressure is not comparable to the U.S. Open. Not to mention the test that a USGA always provides. McIlroy could be a factor this week, but again, I don't see him coming out on top.                

Last week: Scott Piercy (MC) - $0; Season - $6,386,149  

This week: Jason Day - Well, it seems as I put myself in a bit of a bind this week as I don't have any of my top-3 options. But there are a couple of options I like. It came down to Schauffele and Day and the deciding factor was Day's track record on this course. That, and Day has won a major already. That's not to say that Schauffele can't win this week, but I always feel more comfortable taking a guy who has been there and done that.                                          

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Dustin Johnson ($12,200)/Phil Mickelson ($10,300)/Viktor Hovland ($7,600)

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: Scott Piercy - (MC); Streak - 0 

This week: Jason Day - Thanks to Scott Piercy, pulling a "Tony Finau" and completely spacing out last week, I'm back to zero, which means I can take a guy who might be considered a risk this week. If Day is considered a risk, it's only because his recent play hasn't met expectations. As mentioned previously, this isn't the week to give up on Day. Day will find his major-championship form and make the cut with ease on his way to a strong finish.