SBS Tournament of Champions Recap: Thomas Wins at Kapalua

Where does Justin Thomas go from here? Or, more precisely, where do we, the fantasy gamers, go from here with Justin Thomas?

The only thing we know for sure is that Thomas is the first golfer to qualify for next year's SBS Tournament of Champions, having won the event on Sunday, fending off Hideki Matsuyama by three strokes.

Thomas surely was a nice golfer last year, reaching the Tour Championship. But he wasn't even a consideration for the Ryder Cup team and there was no outcry at his omission.

He won the CIMB Classic in November 2015 for his first career win, but despite three T3s the rest of the season, Thomas never really contended again. Yes, tying for third is an excellent result, but at the Honda he finished four strokes back and at The Players and the Travelers he had to go way low on Sunday just to get to T3. He really was never in the conversation about winning those tournaments.

I may take a different view on Thomas' 2015-16 since I owned him in the RotoWire League, and we tend to be more critical of guys we are invested in. And candidly, when he won the CIMB again this past November, not long after our league's season ended, I just shook my head: "Where was this when I owned him?"

But now Thomas quickly has a second victory this season, and his first in the United States (Me: "Again, where was this when I owned him?"). The TOC field was only 32. The strength-of-field, according to OWGR.com, was 321, which is roughly equivalent to the 2016 CIMB (335) and the 2016 Travelers (326). In other words, it wasn't even the 2016 Dean & Deluca and a far cry from even the 2016 Memorial, and those are still light years from the majors.

Still, you can only beat the golfers on the course, and Thomas did that, rising to a career-best No. 12 in the world. That's better than the likes of Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson, and it seems only a matter of time before Thomas overtakes fading Bubba Watson and Danny Willett to reach the top-10.

So the obvious question is: Will Thomas win a major and, if so, when?

In my mind, he will, but not yet.

He's only 23, and not many golfers win majors at 23. If you think Thomas will win a major this year, then he'd join the likes of Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy.

Fowler hasn't won one, Patrick Reed hasn't won one. Heck, until seven months ago, Dustin Johnson hadn't won one. And until six months ago, Henrik Stenson hadn't won one.

My biggest takeaway on Thomas from the week came at the very end, when his enormous five-stroke lead with five holes to play became three with four holes to play and then one with three holes to play. He steadied himself, finishing par-birdie-birdie for the final three-stroke margin.

That sure seems like a strong indicator of his comportment, his demeanor. And that's something that's hard to come by. It will serve him well.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama now has four wins and two runners-up in his last six worldwide starts – and the only guy to beat him has been Thomas. The Japanese star turns 25 next month, and he seems primed to be the next golfer to win his first major. Of course, Matsuyama cannot keep up his pace of top-2 finishes, but multiple victories and a boatload of top-10s are on the horizon in 2016-17.

Jordan Spieth

It goes down as a T3 for the defending champion, but it's a backdoor T3 if there ever was one after an 8-under 65 on Sunday zoomed Spieth up the leaderboard. He characteristically was fourth in proximity to the hole and third in strokes gained putting, meaning Spieth's troubles from last season – off the tee – are still with him. He had a triple-bogey, two doubles and five bogeys on the week, which at Kapalua is extraordinary. In comparison, Thomas had a double and three bogeys all week. That's almost the six-stroke difference between the two right there. Definitely something to keep an eye on with Spieth.

Pat Perez

Perez says he's healthy and playing the best golf of his career after missing most of last year following shoulder surgery. And who's to doubt him? Now 40, Perez got into the field after winning the OHL Classic in November in his third start back, and tied Spieth for third at Kapalua. The strongest part of the year for Perez has always been the West Coast swing, so keep riding him till Florida and maybe even thereafter.

Ryan Moore

Moore shared the 36-hole lead with Thomas before "fading" on the weekend with a pair of 2-under 71s to join Spieth and Perez at T3. He's done well on the Plantation Course through the years, so the result was not a surprise. Moore had perhaps the best year of his career in 2015-16, culminating with a Ryder Cup selection. He has won three years in a row and four of the past five, so a win in 2016-17 would not be unexpected. It's just hard to envision a season quite as good as last year.

Dustin Johnson

For a guy who was never in the conversation about winning the tournament, Johnson steadily went through the week with a 69-70-69-69 to tie for sixth. It was a typical week for the masher, finishing first in strokes gained off the tee and third in tee-to-green. Putting has never been Johnson's strong suit, but ranking 26th out of 32 in SGP will not get it done, even for him.

Patrick Reed

Reed entered the week detailing the fatigue he felt after a grueling season that saw him tee it up more than 30 times (if we include the start of this season, when he surprisingly traveled to the Far East). But after a so-so 3-under 70 on Thursday, Reed found a second wind with a 65 on Friday and did enough to hang around on the first page of the leaderboard, tying for sixth with Johnson. You have to wonder how he'd have done if not fatigued. And you also have to wonder whether Reed is learning a lesson about playing too much. It's easy to see how a tired golfer can excel in a special event such as the Ryder Cup. It's harder in the daily and weekly grind of the PGA Tour season, and that includes the majors.

Brendan Steele

Steele has never cracked the top-50 in the word but seems capable of doing so now. He ended 2016 at No. 60, having won the season-opening Safeway. He tied for sixth at Kapalua with another consistent performance, finishing sixth in the field in SGT2G and making 310 feet worth of putts, sixth in the field. Steele may not win again this season, but we can envision a handful of top-10s.

Jimmy Walker

We believe Walker's PGA Championship win is one of the great outliers in recent years. He traditionally has done well in Hawaii but not so much this past week. He opened with the first-round lead, but followed that 65 with a 70-70-73 to tie for ninth. Even though Walker is a two-time Sony Open winner, we'd be surprised if he contends this week, as the fairways are much narrower at Waialae than at Kapalua.

Jason Day

It was Day's first start since he withdrew from the Tour Championship with recurring back issues. There was no sign of injury at the TOC, as the No. 1 golfer in the world (still!) tied for 12th. He wasn't good, he wasn't really bad. Just so-so. Day was a putter for the ages in 2015-16, but he was 20th in SGP at Kapalua, at -0.166. It's probably just rust, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Cody Gribble

Here's the golfer who was first in SGP, at +1.937. That was good enough to finish a shot behind Day in the group tied for 14th. The rookie showed his putting chops in winning the Sanderson Farms back in October. With the proliferation of advanced stats, we are increasingly seeing that approach shots are a better indicator of winning than is putting. But there's still something to be said for great putting – it cures a lot of bad stuff – and Gribble is showing that he's among the best on the green. Even on greens he'd never seen before.

Branden Grace

The South African was solo 32nd on the week – that's last place, if you're scoring at home -- and he's surely a better golfer than about half the field. There could be a number of factors, including how difficult it is to play Kapalua if you've never played there before. It's a course unlike any other the golfers will see all year. The winner hasn't come from a first-time player in a decade. Don't read too much into this for Grace.