This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Just two weeks removed from the end of the 2016-2017 season, the 2017-2018 season is already upon us. This is where I'd normally insert a joke about how short the offseason is, but we've been through this several times and quite frankly, I'm out of new material. So in lieu of recycling an old joke, I'll simply just move – you're welcome.
As the new season starts, a few things to keep in mind. First, expect the young guys, especially the rookies, to start well in the fall portion of the season. This is a result of a couple factors, including adrenaline of the new guys and generally weaker fields than you'll see in spring and summer.
We also know the fall season is not a predictor of things to come in 2018. One mistake I often see is drafting golfers based solely on how they play in fall, which in the case of rookies can be a huge mistake because all we have is four to six events to go off.
As for as who will rise to the top of the PGA Tour this season? We won't be able to even start that conversation until January, or maybe even March. The point is, don't overreact to what you see the next six weeks.
This week: Safeway Open - Silverado Resort and Spa North, Napa, Calif.
Last Year: Brendan Steele shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patton Kizzire.
PLAYERS TO
Just two weeks removed from the end of the 2016-2017 season, the 2017-2018 season is already upon us. This is where I'd normally insert a joke about how short the offseason is, but we've been through this several times and quite frankly, I'm out of new material. So in lieu of recycling an old joke, I'll simply just move – you're welcome.
As the new season starts, a few things to keep in mind. First, expect the young guys, especially the rookies, to start well in the fall portion of the season. This is a result of a couple factors, including adrenaline of the new guys and generally weaker fields than you'll see in spring and summer.
We also know the fall season is not a predictor of things to come in 2018. One mistake I often see is drafting golfers based solely on how they play in fall, which in the case of rookies can be a huge mistake because all we have is four to six events to go off.
As for as who will rise to the top of the PGA Tour this season? We won't be able to even start that conversation until January, or maybe even March. The point is, don't overreact to what you see the next six weeks.
This week: Safeway Open - Silverado Resort and Spa North, Napa, Calif.
Last Year: Brendan Steele shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patton Kizzire.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Kevin Na
A lot of golfers in the field haven't played on the PGA Tour in several weeks, so I'm going to side with course history over recent play, more often than not. Na has played well at this event every time since the venue change in 2014. He has three top-10s in three starts on the current course.
Martin Laird
One thing we need to factor in to any pick the next six weeks is the golfer's value during the 2018 portion of the season. We definitely don't want to use anyone who we'll need for a major or a big event in 2018. However, if said golfer has a big advantage, then by all means, use him. In this case, we won't need Laird for 2018, so this is a good spot. Laird has two top-10s in three starts at the current venue.
Brendan Steele
Steele is the defending champ and under normal circumstances, I wouldn't recommend him, but since this is a fall event and there's less attention on the sport as a whole, I don't mind going with the defending champ. It doesn't hurt that Steele has a good track record outside of his win last year as well, with two top-25s in the two starts prior to his win.
Chris Kirk
Kirk lit it up last year during the fall portion of the season and then he fell off the map during the 2017 portion. I expect a bounce back from Kirk this season, and if he's going to get back to form, it will probably start this fall. Kirk has only two starts here, one of which resulted in a top-10 last year.
Ryan Blaum
I am high on Blaum this season and if he's to improve upon his numbers from last season, he'll want to get something done during fall this season. Last season he did most of his damage during the 2017 portion of the season, which is always a good sign, but this season, that should translate to early season success as well.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Rory Sabbatini
New venue or not, Sabbatini has never had much success at this event. Sabatini has made just two cuts in seven starts at this event and has yet to make a cut on the current course. Sabbatini is the type who is in play during fall, but not this week.
Nick Taylor
Taylor had a solid 2016-2017 season, finishing 93rd on the final FedEx Points list, but judging by his previous results at this event, he'll have to wait one more week to get started on his new season. Taylor has teed it up here three times and has yet to make a cut.
Zach Johnson
Johnson has played exactly three fall events the last three season and his best finish was a T75. This is his first time at this event and he's probably trying to end the year on a high-note after playing poorly for long stretches last season, but with no recent success in the fall season, it's unlikely he finishes strong.
Kelly Kraft
Kraft had a solid 2016-2017 season, but that was based mostly on a couple runner-up finishes. Although it was a great season, Kraft was inconsistency, which is something he'll have to improve this season. Kraft likely will need another week to start that work on his consistency as he's missed the cut here twice in his two starts at this venue.
Patrick Rodgers
Positive momentum is tough to carry over this long stretch, but what about negative momentum? Rodgers hopes that all momentum, good and bad, doesn't carry over because Rodgers had some bad momentum built up at the end of last season. He has also been inconsistent at his venue with one top-10 and two missed cuts in three starts.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: N/A (n/a) - $0; Season - $0
This week: Kevin Na - Na is generally should be used early in the year – not the season, but the year – as he's at his best during the first couple months of the year, but his track record at this event is so strong, it's hard to pass on him.
SURVIVOR PICK
This week: Kevin Na - It's hard to trust anyone this time of the year, but, once again, considering the track record, it's hard to imagine that Na will miss the cut this week. Above all, you need a guy who is invested in this event, and three top-10s in three starts at this venue shows Na is invested.
