RBC Canadian Open Preview: DJ the Dominator

The PGA Tour heads north of the border as the start of the "Open Season" begins...Is that not a thing? Can we make that a thing? Either way, the RBC Canadian Open is first up, followed of course by the U.S. and British Opens. It's no wonder those in the United Kingdom prefer to call their event, "The Open Championship" -- there are so many Opens, to be The Open is quite a feat. The Canadian Open is certainly not the most prestigious Open, but it's getting more attention thanks to a schedule change that moved it right in front of the U.S. version and led to four of the top six golfers in the rankings teeing it up this week. It would be a mistake, however, to think that the big names in the field will be giving this event as much attention as the two upcoming ones that double as majors. Why mention that? Well, you might want to be cautious with the top guys this week, as the list of winners over the past decade includes only a couple elite golfers. As for the course, it has been used previously for three Canadian Opens, in 2003, 2006 and 2012.  

This week: The Canadian Open – Hamilton Golf and CC - Hamilton, Ontario 

Last Year: Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 66 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Whee Kim.  

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (11-2) 

If not for Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka, DJ would be the talk of golf, as he's played very well in the majors this year and has won a WGC event. He's also the defending champ at this event, which if nothing else, shows that he's capable of giving it his full attention. The fact he is sponsored by RBC doesn't hurt, either. The only concern is that he hasn't played this track in particular before, but most of the field this week is in that boat.

Brooks Koepka (6-1)   

If this were a major, Koepka would be favored. It's a rule now. However, this isn't a major, and we just don't know which Koepka will show up. It's no secret that Koepka is ultra-focused during majors but lacks that focus elsewhere -- he's admitted to that fact. He mentioned that he hopes to turn that around and play better outside the big-ticket events, but we really haven't seen it yet; and until we do, I'd avoid him outside the majors.  

Rory McIlroy (10-1) 

McIlroy missed the cut last week at the Memorial, but that was probably just a blip on the radar in what's been a solid season. This will be his first time at the Canadian Open, which gives me a slight pause, but again, there aren't many guys in the field this week that have a ton of experience on this course.        

MID-TIER GOLFERS

Scott Piercy (25-1) 

It's a strange week in that it feels like there's a big drop-off after the first few guys listed, but that means nothing if those elite players aren't fully focused. These are probably the shortest odds you'll see on Piercy all season, but there's a reason for that: Piercy has four top-20s in his past five starts and two of those were top-3s. He also won this event in 2012 -- the last time Hamilton G&CC hosted the Canadian Open.    

Brandt Snedeker (30-1) 

Snedeker has only one top-10 since the calendar turned to 2019, but that's not to say he's played poorly this season. He enters this week inside the top 50 on the FedEx Points list, and he posted top-20s in his past two starts. The problem has been finding a high finish. Perhaps a return to Canada is what Snedeker needs. He usually plays well at this event, no matter the venue. One thing we know for certain is that he'll be focused -- he's also sponsored by RBC -- and not looking ahead to next week.  

Bud Cauley (40-1) 

Again, like with the odds on Piercy, it doesn't feel like we are getting full value here, but that doesn't mean that Cauley is a bad pick this week. In fact, he's actually a pretty solid pick; he just doesn't have the cache that most people want when making their OAD selection or putting money down. Cauley is coming off a strong performance last week at the Memorial and he finished inside the top-5 here in 2012, on this course.       

LONG SHOTS

Keegan Bradley (60-1)  

Bradley's win last fall caught us all by surprise, and although he hasn't parlayed that into a great season just yet, he's still hanging around, currently slotting in 72nd on the FedExCup Standings. Not great, but not bad either. What I like about him this week is his track record the last two seasons. He finished fourth a year ago and 14th the year before, and shot under 70 in six of his eight rounds over that span.

Mackenzie Hughes (100-1) 

It's the Canadian Open. We have to have a Canadian on the list, right? Seriously, I wouldn't put someone on here if they had no chance, and while the odds that Hughes wins this week are slim, well, they are actually 100-1. I do believe he can play well this week. Hughes posted a T8 in his most recent start on the PGA Tour and posted a T8 at this event last year. It's a different course, sure, but for a Canadian, it's good to see he can play under the home-crowd pressure.   

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Scott Piercy - All the favorites this week are destined for high ownership during the majors, which means that the most popular picks will come from the next level, or even a notch below that. Enter Piercy, who, with his win here in 2012, should be a popular pick. I like Piercy in this spot, even if he's highly-owned. There won't be a consensus, which means even if you pick Piercy, you should be able to gain some ground.          

Moderately Owned Pick: Brandt Snedeker - Snedeker is also a good option this week as there aren't many spots left on the calendar that you would use him, and he should be only moderately-owned. Snedeker is generally top-of-mind early in the season, which means there's potential to make up some ground with him this week in the OAD format.       

Lightly Owned Pick: Mackenzie Hughes - Unless your OAD pool started in the fall, there won't be many people even looking Hughes' way this week, and that's where you swoop in... if you are way behind in your pool. This is a total flyer that could pay off, so if you are in a good to decent spot in your pool right now, I would not advise going this route.               

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - This may go without saying, but Thomas is much too risky this week. He had a multi-week absence, followed by a missed cut. He might feel like he's close to being back to where he wants to be, and he might actually be close for all we know, but there's just no reason to use Thomas in this spot. You might get lucky, but more likely, you'll burn a guy you might still want to use down the road.           

Last Week: Matt Kuchar (MC) - $0; Season - $6,386,149  

This Week: Scott Piercy - It came down to Piercy or Snedeker and I went with Piercy for a couple reasons. First, he won this event on this course in 2012. Yes, that's a while back, but it can't hurt to have those visuals in his head while he's making his way around the course. Second, he's had a better season than Snedeker and looks to be in better form. I'm also crossing my fingers and hoping that half my league doesn't also have him this week.
          
FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Dustin Johnson ($12,600)/Scott Piercy ($10,500)/Mackenzie Hughes ($8,700) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: Tiger Woods - (T9); Streak - 4 

This week: Scott Piercy - Might as well double up with Piercy. The most important qualification for a Survivor pick this week is that he's invested in this event, not the one next week. Being a former champ here, there's no doubt Piercy will be focused. Outside of that, he has the current form and course history covered as well. Piercy has not missed a cut at this event in six tries.