This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
It is well known among PGA Tour fans, and players as well, that winning for the first time is an incredibly difficult task. It's not only the statistical problem – a golfer must often be the best among 120-150 golfers on any given week – but there's also the mental hurdle that one must get past. It's a hurdle that, more often than not, players fail to overcome.
Once you get over that hurdle, you are in the clear, though, right? Not necessarily. Paul Casey first won on the PGA Tour in 2009, but it would be another nine years before picking up his second win. Casey was in the clear until he wasn't.
The shelf life for "being in the clear" generally lasts for roughly two years after the first win, but let that drought stretch to three or four years, then you've got problems. A golfer with "tons of potential" becomes a giant question mark. The original question of "can this guy win on the PGA Tour?", turns into "can this guy ever win again on the PGA Tour?". The latter is not a question anyone wants asked about his game, but then again, that particular question can only be asked of those who have already won on the PGA Tour, so they've got that going for them.
Casey's winless drought went on so long it became a bit of joke. He was obviously good enough to win, and he had no problem winning on the Euro Tour.
It is well known among PGA Tour fans, and players as well, that winning for the first time is an incredibly difficult task. It's not only the statistical problem – a golfer must often be the best among 120-150 golfers on any given week – but there's also the mental hurdle that one must get past. It's a hurdle that, more often than not, players fail to overcome.
Once you get over that hurdle, you are in the clear, though, right? Not necessarily. Paul Casey first won on the PGA Tour in 2009, but it would be another nine years before picking up his second win. Casey was in the clear until he wasn't.
The shelf life for "being in the clear" generally lasts for roughly two years after the first win, but let that drought stretch to three or four years, then you've got problems. A golfer with "tons of potential" becomes a giant question mark. The original question of "can this guy win on the PGA Tour?", turns into "can this guy ever win again on the PGA Tour?". The latter is not a question anyone wants asked about his game, but then again, that particular question can only be asked of those who have already won on the PGA Tour, so they've got that going for them.
Casey's winless drought went on so long it became a bit of joke. He was obviously good enough to win, and he had no problem winning on the Euro Tour. Casey finally answered all questions in March at the Valspar Championship and things were looking up. The second win, especially after such a long drought, is supposed to truly set a golfer free. The statistical problem still remains, but the mental hurdle should no longer exist, and maybe it doesn't, but it sure looked like it was still there on Sunday as Casey struggled down the stretch.
The first one is usually the hardest, but for some, the second isn't much easier, nor are any subsequent wins that follow. Bobby Jones is credited with saying,"competitive golf is mainly played on a 5-inch course, the space between your ears." Bobby Jones won a few tournaments in his day. He might have been onto something.
This week: Quicken Loans National - TPC Potomac at Avenel, Potomac, Md.
Last Year: Kyle Stanley shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Charles Howell III.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Tiger Woods
If Tiger brings his best game this week, there is a good chance he'll find his way back into the winner's circle. Everything is lined up for a win. Woods has the track record; he's won this event multiple times and, quite honestly, there isn't much resistance this week with most of the world's best players taking the week off.
Rickie Fowler
For one of the better players in the world, Fowler is sure tough to peg on a weekly basis. You simply don't know when he's going to show up. But, just like Woods, he has the advantage of playing against a lesser field, and if he's sharp, he should have no trouble contending. Fowler also has a strong track record at this event, with two top-3s in his last three starts.
Kyle Stanley
Stanley got his career back on track last year at this event and hasn't looked back since. Stanley didn't have a great history at this event prior to his win last year, but he managed to find his way around this track for four days and considering he's a stronger golfer now, he can probably do it again. Stanley is only three weeks removed from a runner-up showing at the Memorial and carded a top-15 last week, so we know his game is strong coming in.
Bill Haas
Haas is in the midst of a tough season, both on and off the course, but if he's to find success this season, it will likely be here. Haas has been very steady at this event, with three top-5s in his last five starts, including a win in 2013.
Charles Howell III
Howell III doesn't have a lot of high-end finishes this season, but he's been about as steady as anyone on the PGA Tour. Howell III has recorded 12 top-25s in 21 starts and he's sprinkled in four top-10s as well. Howell III recorded a runner-up showing at this event last year when he lost in a playoff to Stanley.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Sung Kang
Kang isn't normally a guy you would consider, but he did post a top-5 at this event last year, so he might be on a radar or two. With that in mind, he's not a good option this week as he's yet to crack the top 30 on the PGA Tour this year. Kang is somehow inside the top 125 on the FedEx Cup Points list, but that is mainly due to a top-3 that he carded in the fall.
Si Woo Kim
It's always a tough situation when a golfer has a poor track record at an event, yet is clearly a better golfer than he was in previous starts. Kim continues to improve his overall game, so he might improve his play at this event, but to this point, he's been really bad at this event. Kang missed the cut here in both of his starts, and missed it by a country mile last year.
Jimmy Walker
Walker stumbled out of the gate this season, but he got back on track in April and is set up for a nice run through the FedEx Playoffs. That's the good news. The bad news is he's never really played well at this event. Walker has made the cut in just three of six starts and has never cracked the top-20 here.
J.B. Holmes
Holmes is coming off a fine showing at the Travelers Championship last week, but he's never put four rounds together at this event. Holmes has made the cut in six of seven starts here but finished in the top 40 just once. It's quite a bizarre track record in that he usually plays well enough to make the weekend, but he can't get anything going once there. Perhaps it's the pin locations?
Rory Sabbatini
Sabbatini is playing fairly well this season as evidence by his ranking of 83rd on the FedEx Points list, but his track record at this event would indicate he won't moving up the points list this week. Sabbatini has teed it up here four times and has yet to crack the top 60.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Bubba Watson (1) - $1,260,000; Season - $6,914,235
This week: Rickie Fowler - A quick note about last week. I had to switch my pick in the comments section as an astute reader pointed out that I had used Casey earlier in the year. I fortunately switched to Watson. As for this week, this pick was not an easy decision, but I'm going to go with the big gun here. I've decided that I am not going to use Fowler at either of the remaining majors, so I might as well use him here.
PGATOUR.COM PICKS
Starters: Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, Kyle Stanley, Charles Howell III
Bench: Marc Leishman, Bill Haas
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Ryan Moore - (MC); Streak - 0
This week: Robert Garrigus - Certainly not a name I thought I would use in this format, but it's hard to argue with his success here. Garrigus has made the cut here in 10 of 11 starts and posted two top-25s in his last four starts on the PGA Tour. Garrigus is not the safest pick, but with so many big names absent, this week is sure to be a little odd, which means, no pick is safe.
