PrizePicks Golf: AT&T Byron Nelson

This article is part of our PrizePicks Golf series.

PrizePicks offers a unique twist on DFS play in the form of Over/Under picks for individual players in almost every sport imaginable. You have the opportunity to pick two, three or four players per entry, and the goal is to predict whether the individual player will end up over or under the projected total PrizePicks provides.  For PGA play, you are required to pick at least one Over and one Under play.  The legend for scoring in this format is as follows:

Unlike your usual PGA DFS platforms, PrizePicks offers PGA gameplay on a per-round basis, not for an entire tournament.  So, the projected totals you see today are for the individual rounds on Thursday, and once Thursday's round commences, you will see updated numbers for Friday, and so on.

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This week brings us the AT&T Byron Nelson in Dallas, and due to the upcoming PGA Championship, we have a depleted stable of players as many top golfers are taking the week off.

COURSE DETAILS

Trinity Hollow Golf Club – Par 71, 7,380 yards

Dallas, TX

This is only the second year that the Byron Nelson is held at Trinity Hollow, so it's best to ignore course history and past winners.  Aaron Wise won here last year, with a blistering 23-under-par result, which gives you an idea of the overall difficulty of this layout.  The course is one of the most wide-open tracks on tour, and potentially one of the easiest.  Water hazards are non-existent here, and the rough is pedestrian, at best. The course also has some of the biggest greens you'll find on tour, and they will likely run slow due to the impending weather (see below).

KEY STATISTICS

Driving Distance : There's very little rough and you could taxi a 747 through some of the fairways.  Long bombers will have little reason to ease off on this course.

Birdie or Better Percentage: If Aaron Wise's total last year is any indication, total scores of -20 and higher will be in abundance this week. This will be an important stat to consider when you approach a relatively easy course layout.

Proximity to Hole (PTH): For reasons that will become clearer when I discuss the weather, this will be an important stat to look at, especially Thursday.

WEATHER

Rain will pellet this course with plenty of moisture Wednesday, which means drives and greens will roll slow, but approach shots should stick the greens. This is good news for those with excellent iron play as they approach the green, which is why I like the PTH statistic above. Wind will be variable throughout the weekend, and I don't think there's a distinct advantage to teeing off early or late Thursday, although the early golfers will see much wetter course conditions.

OVER PICKS

Brooks Koepka – 23.5 (OVER)

Although Koepka is a notoriously slow starter, he's one of the longest hitters in the game, and his birdie or better percentage ranks 14th on tour.  You'd be hard-pressed to find a better course that's tailor-made for Koepka's skill set.  He'll be in position to post low numbers on the Par 5's and will likely face short approach shots to many of the Par 4's as well.

Marc Leishman – 22.5 (OVER)

Leishman boasts one of the highest Birdie or Better percentages in the field. His driving stats, especially accuracy, leave a little bit to be desired but on such an open course, it shouldn't be too much cause for concern.  Great showings at the Sony Open and the Genesis Open along with a win at the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lampur make him a sneaky favorite in this field.

Rafa Cabrera Bello -23.0 (OVER)

Here's a guy who usually starts out hot and fades down the stretch. He ranks 14th on tour in Birdie or Better percentage, and despite his lack of length off the tee (75th), he's one of the most accurate ball strikers in the field, as is evidenced by his excellent Par 4 average of 3.96.  I like his chances to be at the top of the leaderboard Thursday.

UNDER PICKS

Patrick Reed – 22.0 (UNDER)

There's no question that Reed is in a slump. This easy layout could be a spot where he bounces back, but I don't think he'll do enough to get above this number Thursday.  His Par 4 percentage is 4.01 and length off the tee in another concern when considering Reed.  Even worse is his Par 5 BoB percentage of just below 50 percent, and it's crucial to score there for an O/U like this one.

Aaron Wise – 22.0 (UNDER)

I tend to fade previous winners and I think it's a good day to do it here.  Wise averages just above 71 in Round 1 showings (174th on tour), and his best finish this season was 10th in the Myakoba Golf Classic in a very soft field.   Despite posting a sky-high total last year, I think he'll be slow out of the gate.

Hideki Matsuyama – 23.5 (UNDER)

Matuyama is one of those guys that you always see with a high salary in standard DFS play, but after a nice showing at the Players, success eluded him at the Masters and the Wells Fargo.  A projected score of 23.5 is a tough number to hit for any golfer, and it could be even harder for Hideki. He ranks 115th on tour in Round 1 Scoring Average, and his 22.85% BoB percentage is also lacking.  I think he's a safe bet to go under this number in Round 1.