Phoenix Open Recap: Matsuyama Wins Another

Sometimes, in the desire to separate ourselves from other gamers, looking for that little bitty edge that will put us over the top, we think too much.

Which brings us to Hideki Matsuyama, who won the Waste Management Phoenix Open on Sunday. That's the same Matsuyama who had won the tournament last year, finished second the year before and fourth the year before that. That's the same Matsuyama who has been the hottest golfer in the world the past four months, with four worldwide wins entering the week.

That's the same Matsuyama who was owned, according to various DraftKings pricing reports, by about 20-25 percent of DFS gamers.

This was not the place to get cute.

There are different schools of thought on what carries more weight: course history or recent form. But when there's both?

There's a trend to consider a lot of stats that don't really tell us anything or tell us the obvious. Birdie or better percentage is a big one. Yes, that stat could be indicative of a guy to play on a course that yields a lot of birdies. But what it really is, for the most part, is a stat that tells us who the best golfers are. Better golfers get more birdies. It's not an exact science; there are always outliers. Greg Owen is T10 in BOB, but the top four are Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott and Matsuyama.

The 2016-17 numbers are still a small sample size. Last season's BOB leaders read like this: Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer, Phil Mickelson, Scott and, tied for 10th, Robert Garrigus and J.B. Holmes.

Can there be more chalk there? Sure, there are a few gunslingers there, and they're worth considering when it's a decision between two guys, because in DraftKings birdies are worth a lot more (3 points) than bogeys (-0.5 points) are costly. Even double bogeys lose only 1 point. Remember, you also get three points for a bogey-free round.

The perfect DK lineup this past week included the top six guys on the leaderboard: Matsuyama (1), J.J. Spaun (T4), Louis Oosthuizen (3), Webb Simpson (2), Rickie Fowler (T4) and Byeong-Hun An (6). The only guy not high on the leaderboard who was a top-10 DK scorer was Charley Hoffman, another gunslinger.

More and more, the advanced golf stats are showing us that guys who get on the green in regulation and get it close to the hole are the best golfers. These are bread-and-butter, boring stats. What happens off the tee and on the green are often secondary. Matsuyama was second in greens in regulation, second in proximity from the fairway and T12 in scrambling (And T6 in driving accuracy). He was 47th in strokes gained putting. All but one of the top six Phoenix guys were top-10 in GIR (Simpson, T17). All but one of the top six guys were outside the top-10 in SGP (Spaun, 7th).

If you can determine the guys who you think will be high on the actual leaderboard, more times than not you'll do quite well in DK play, especially cash games. If you want to go with a gunslinger, good luck. How many of you had Hoffman?

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Webb Simpson

Simpson lost to Matsuyama in a four-hole playoff and actually putted far better than the world No. 5. He was 13th in the field in SGP. Simpson has always been one of the best tee-to-green golfers (11th last season, 19th this season). Putting has been his kryptonite, but he's employing a funky, almost painful looking, grip that seems to be working. It's hard to actually win a tournament when you're not at least a decent putter, but we saw Sunday that Simpson can win. After all, one more putt and he would've won. Simpson is up to No. 56 in the world. Not too shabby for a guy who can't putt.

Louis Oosthuizen

There was a lot of chatter that Oosthuizen's DK price was out of whack, at only $6,900, and that turned out to be spot-on. He was solo third, a shot shy of the playoff. Oosthuizen is sitting out Pebble Beach but he surely will go up in price for his next start. We need to keep an eye on more curious DK prices and whether this will be the new norm.

J.J. Spaun

What to make of Spaun, who two weeks ago was a nonentity in fantasy golf? Before this season, he had played only two career PGA Tour events. In Spaun's first seven this season, T28 was his best finish, by far. But he tied for ninth at the Farmers and for fourth at Phoenix. He went to San Diego State, so he knows Torrey Pines. But how do we explain TPC Scottsdale? All Spaun's stats are horrible because, before two weeks ago, he was horrible. Spaun had a win and two runners-up last season on the Web.com Tour, so there has to be some game there. Very rarely do guys come out of the blue to become good overnight. But Spaun sure looks good now, and he's up to 111th in the world.

Rickie Fowler

What to make of Fowler? He's really been among the most disappointing top golfers. It's surprising he's still ranked so high, at No. 14. This T4 was his best showing since a T4 last May at the Wells Fargo. One thing we know for sure: Fowler likes TPC Scottsdale, losing in a playoff to Matsuyama last year. It wouldn't be surprising to see Fowler play better going forward, even win. Just too good not to.

Byeong-Hun An

Maybe the enormity of having a three-stroke lead on the back nine caught up with the 25-year-old rookie. But he's got a track record of winning the U.S. Amateur and on the European Tour. As a full member of the PGA Tour now, albeit one who's expected to play the minimum number of tournaments, An will be heard from often.

John Peterson

The T12 was one of the best cashes of the former Louisiana State star's career. Peterson showed flashes for two seasons before missing almost all of 2015-16 with an injury. Now healthy and playing on a major medical extension, who knows? He's got 17 tournaments left to earn $458,142 or 342.610 FedEx Cup points, This was a guy who finished fourth in the 2012 U.S. Open as a 23-year-old.

Phil Mickelson

Boy, Mickelson sure looks good. Yes, he imploded with a back-nine 40 after a 4-under front nine got him onto the leaderboard. Or maybe he got tired. This was the third week in a row he was playing, and he's slated to make it five in a row with Pebble Beach and Riviera. Seems a bit much.

Patrick Reed

Reed was rested after a week off. Or was he? Reed tied for 68th and now has just one top-10 in five starts this season (and that was in the limited-field TOC). This follows a grueling 2015-16 and fall season. We saw what a too-busy sked did to Jordan Spieth, how he never really recovered from being tired.

Sergio Garcia

Garcia recently got engaged. On Sunday, he won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic to get back into the top-10 at No. 9. Can one of the game's most tortured souls find happiness on the golf course through happiness in his personal life. Can it be the catalyst to his first major win? Maybe so. But it's Sergio, so probably not.

RotoWire value picks

Last week: Runner-up (Howell), three top-fours, seven top-25s, five missed cuts.

This week: Winner (Matsuyama), three top-10s, 7 top-25s, five missed cuts.

Of the 16 golfers offered in the RotoWire value pics, we struck on seven top-25s for the second week in a row. And we have five missed cuts for the second week in a row. You spend $12,000 on Jordan Spieth, the top guy on the board, as we did and T9 is not good enough. But Hideki Matsuyama won the tournament at $11,700 and Rickie Fowler tied for fourth at $9,500. Brooks Koepka (T42) was a stinker at $9,100 in our top-tier picks. In Tier 2, we continued to ride Brendan Steele to a T16, and Zach Johnson tied for 12th. Bubba Watson missed the cut, and trunk-slamming at a course he always had done well on doesn't bode well for him this season. In Tier 3, we had two top-25s (Billy Horschel and William McGirt) and two MCs (going to the well once too often on Russell Knox and Keegan Bradley). Like last week, we had two cuts and two MCs among our long shots, with Kyle Stanley and Lucas Glover playing the weekend. We consider two weekend plays out of four long shots a victory.