This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
There are two PGA Tour events this week, the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions event in Shanghai where Bubba Watson is the defending champion and many PGA Tour regulars -- Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler among them -- return to the big stage. Meanwhile, in Mississippi, we have the opposite-field Sanderson Farms Championship, where another young gun, probably 22 or 23 years old, has a chance to continue an insane streak of young players winning on the PGA Tour. Here's a stats look at both events.
History Lesson
The last two editions of this event have been won by Dustin Johnson and Watson, two of the longest players on the PGA Tour.
As for which you can start, Bubba seems to play his best when he likes a golf course and he sure did that here last year, hitting 67 percent of his fairways and 67 percent of his greens, with a long drive topping out at 337 yards. He had a strong run through the FedEx Cup Playoffs, going 3-T29-T10-T5, and we would START him this week expecting that to continue, even though it's his first start of the new season.
Johnson closed strong when he won here in 2013, shooting two weekend rounds of 66. That week he hit 84 percent of his greens, 69 percent of his fairways and had a long drive of 361 yards. But this is his first start of the year and with his play as 2015 ended kind of streaky, we recommend you
There are two PGA Tour events this week, the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions event in Shanghai where Bubba Watson is the defending champion and many PGA Tour regulars -- Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler among them -- return to the big stage. Meanwhile, in Mississippi, we have the opposite-field Sanderson Farms Championship, where another young gun, probably 22 or 23 years old, has a chance to continue an insane streak of young players winning on the PGA Tour. Here's a stats look at both events.
History Lesson
The last two editions of this event have been won by Dustin Johnson and Watson, two of the longest players on the PGA Tour.
As for which you can start, Bubba seems to play his best when he likes a golf course and he sure did that here last year, hitting 67 percent of his fairways and 67 percent of his greens, with a long drive topping out at 337 yards. He had a strong run through the FedEx Cup Playoffs, going 3-T29-T10-T5, and we would START him this week expecting that to continue, even though it's his first start of the new season.
Johnson closed strong when he won here in 2013, shooting two weekend rounds of 66. That week he hit 84 percent of his greens, 69 percent of his fairways and had a long drive of 361 yards. But this is his first start of the year and with his play as 2015 ended kind of streaky, we recommend you SIT him this week.
So with driving distance playing a role in determining a champion, here's are the other 2014-2015 PGA Tour leaders in that category playing this week:
Adam Scott - START. Scott's putter finally came alive! Scott shot a dazzling Sunday 63 at the CIMB Classic, finishing one shot shy of winner Justin Thomas in a week where he was T2 in driving accuracy, T9 in greens in regulation, and fifth in putts per GIR. I'd take a risk with him this week. He may be back to being the Adam Scott we've been waiting to see.
Gary Woodland - SIT. In his first start of the season last week Woodland finished T56, ranking T49 in greens in regulation and T43 in putts per green in regulation. He also didn't have a good end to the 2014-2015 PGA Tour season, with no top-10 finishes since a T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship in May and finished the season ranked 86th in strokes gained-tee to green and 85th in strokes gained-putting. We need to see more improvement before starting him.
Rory McIlroy - Your choice. He contended in Turkey last week ... and made some putts ... but also shot a Sunday 71 to fall out of contention. This after being in contention a couple weeks ago at the Frys.com Open only to have a balky putter. The game is now there -- this one comes down to trust. If you play in the PGA Tour's AVIS League and have bench options, you may want to start Rory and then see how he's faring. That'll give you options with him and Jordan Spieth (see below).
Justin Thomas - START. He finally got the win. Thomas shot a dazzling 61 at the CIMB Classic last week in round two, and then bounced back from a potentially devastating double bogey on the 14th hole on Sunday to birdie his next three holes and close in 66 for his first PGA Tour victory. He hit 76 percent of his fairways in the process and with his length, we think this could week could be a prime opportunity for back-to-back wins.
A Note on Jordan Spieth
Spieth leads the crowd of other PGA Tour notables, and with him comes a predicament. Two weeks off. The return off a busy stretch that included the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the Presidents Cup. These days him, Rory and Rickie (along with Jason Day who isn't playing this week) are the surest bets in fantasy. But do you want to start him? In 2015, finished T7 in his first calendar start of the year ... and missed the cut the next week. At Doral, after a long layoff he finished T17 while opening with 75 -- and then started his epic spring run. He opened with 74 before coming back with 62 at the RBC Heritage a week after winning the Green Jacket, and started slow at the John Deere Classic before winning there too. He also missed the cut in the first two FedEx Cup Playoff events ... before winning the Tour Championship. Bottom line: like with Rory, if you have flexibility, it may be a nice option with Spieth this week. Angry Jordan is the Most Dangerous Jordan, but in case he doesn't start fast and turn it around, it'll give you options to turn to someone else. He finished T35 in this event last year.
Sanderson Farms Championship:
If this event is part of your fantasy league, look toward Smylie Kaufman who won in Las Vegas two weeks ago, finishing 11th in strokes gained-tee to green and eighth in strokes gained-putting in the process. Other players to keep an eye on: Patton Kizzire, who nearly won in Vegas as well, Graham DeLaet, and Patrick Rodgers. The defending champion is also playing this event, Nick Taylor.
