Memorial Tournament Recap: Dufner’s Now 27th in the World

Jason Dufner had been having a really good season even before he won the Memorial on Sunday. So a victory, even in one of the strongest fields of the year, should not have been a surprise. Until maybe we look at little closer.

For all of the top-25s that Dufner had racked up – now 10 in his 15 starts – he hadn't had so much as a single top-10 in a stroke-play event all season.

Dufner had been vaguely Matt Kuchar-esque: piling up a bunch of good finishes and gathering a lot of FedEx Cup points (and cash) without ever really contending for a title. Not exactly a bad thing.

And it goes to show, again, how slim the difference is between winning and not winning on the PGA Tour. All Dufner had to do was elevate his game just a little bit, and it vaulted him over the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and other stars. Fowler ended up the closest, tying for second with India's Anirban Lahiri. Thomas and Kuchar tied for fourth (in yet another Kuchar-esque performance).

Now 40 years old, Dufner moves to No. 27 in the world, coming all the way back from a fall well outside the top-100 in 2015.

He's been a remarkable comeback story and has been a sound DFS play all season, especially because he's been favorably priced in most tournaments. And that likely will continue when Dufner is lined up alongside the top names, including those listed above. Including at the U.S. Open in two weeks.

Dufner tied for eighth in the Open last year, so you have to wonder: If he can elevate his game just a little more once again …

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Since most top golfers will be skipping Memphis this week, we'll now use the player notes below to look at how the Memorial affected some top players preparing for the U.S. Open.

Rickie Fowler

Even though Dufner was outstanding down the stretch, Fowler did lose the lead on the back-nine. Which doesn't truly instill confidence in us if he's in a similar situation at Erin Hills. But Fowler has been playing quite well for a few months now, with only one stroke-play finish outside the top-12 since winning the Honda in February. He's the one golfer in the top-10 in the world who is in the Memphis field, and we think that's a detriment, forcing consolidated prep time on a new major course.

Bubba Watson

One could argue that Watson doesn't fit into the "top player" category noted above. But the guy did start the year at No. 10 in the world (he's now 34th). The T6 at the Memorial was, incredibly, Watson's first top-10 in a stroke-play event this season. On the one hand, it's hard to be believe his game had sunk as far as it did coming into last week; on the other, this one result wasn't enough to lead us to expect anything substantial from him at the U.S. Open.

Justin Thomas

Thomas is an interesting possibility. He seems to do his best on courses where you can let loose off the tee with little fear of the consequences, and the fairways at Erin Hills will be quite wide. But Thomas has not been fully on his game since his back-to-back wins in early January. The T4 at the Memorial was just his second top-10 in a stroke-play event since his Sony victory. We don't put Thomas in the very highest echelon of golfers, and we'd be surprised if he's on the first page of the Open leaderboard. But that doesn't mean he couldn't be a part of a successful lineup.

Jordan Spieth

It appeared Spieth might be in line for another backdoor top-10 at Muirfield, but a Sunday fade left him T13. Despite more than fourth months of good-but-not-great play since winning at Pebble in February, Spieth heads to Erin Hills as the top choice in many people's minds. As he should be. He's even one of the few familiar with the track, from the 2011 U.S. Amateur. Since Dustin Johnson cooled off, none of the top guys is really at the top of his game right now (except maybe Sergio Garcia). One of them should still win the Open, since we don't envision a dark horse, so Spieth has to be considered a real threat for another major title.

Jason Day

Day is another interesting possibility. Really interesting. He's still No. 3 in the world and heads to Erin Hills playing his best golf of the season. Granted, that wasn't hard to accomplish based on the way he started out 2016-17, but Day followed up a solo second at the Byron Nelson with a T15 at Muirfield – his best cash ever at the Memorial. Day has run off four straight top-10s at the Open and five in the past six. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if Day won at Erin Hills.

Adam Scott

Scott tied for 31st at the Memorial. That shouldn't be viewed all that negatively, since Scott clearly gears his season to do well in the big events, at the expense of all other tournaments. To wit: Scott's two best showings in 2017 have been T9 at the Masters and T6 at The Players. Scott has been top-20 the past three years at the U.S. Open, and that's another real possibility this time around, too.

Hideki Matsuyama

Of all the guys in the top-10, Matsuyama arguably is playing the poorest, the latest evidence being a T45 at the Memorial, where he won two years ago. He's now gone four months since his last top-10, which was a win at Phoenix. Matsuyama has just one Open top-10 and that was three years ago. He missed the cut last year. That wouldn't be a surprise to happen again.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson missed the cut at the Memorial, and many people said that was the best thing that could've happened to him, allowing for an earlier arrival at Erin Hills. We agree. Johnson has been far more mortal since suffering a back injury before the Masters. He may not be fully healed. We don't know. But he will go into the Open as the favorite, and rightfully so.

Jon Rahm

Rahm also missed the Memorial cut, but in this case we don't view that as a positive. It was his first MC of the season. That in and of itself is not so bad. It happens. But for all the great results the rookie has been lining up, his worst showings largely have come in the strongest fields. Of course, that may seem obvious on one level. But on another, the top, top guys should play their best in the hardest situations. Rahm was T27 at the Masters, T72 at The Players and now an MC in another loaded field (he was, however, T3 at the WGC-Mexico).

RotoWire Value Picks

Last week: Winner (Kisner), five top-12s, six top-25s, three missed cuts.
This week: One top-5, six top-25s, five missed cuts

Tier 1 was a washout, with Johnson and Rahm missing the cut, and Scott tying for 31st. We also limited ourselves to three picks in Tier 2. Matt Kuchar delivered with a T4, but Emiliano Grillo (T40) and Patrick Reed (T57) didn't. We went six-deep in Tier 3, with good results. David Lingmerth tied for 15th and both Ross Fisher and Phil Mickelson tied for 22nd. Patrick Cantlay was T35, Tony Finau was T40 and Adam Hadwin missed the cut. Among the long shots, Marc Leishman was solid at T15, as was Byeong Hun An at T25. Ryan Moore and Rafa Cabrera-Bello missed the cut.

We cashed in our DraftKings game, finishing ninth in a field of 57. We played Kuchar, Reed, Finau, Grillo, Fisher and Cantlay for a total of 431 points.