Mayakoba Golf Classic Preview: Kuchar Swings for Repeat

After a rare week off, the PGA Tour resumes its fall schedule in Mexico this week. Before you ask, no, last week is not considered a break between seasons. It was just a week off; this is not a new season. 

Now that we have that cleared up, let's focus on the finish line, which is just two weeks away. The fall stretch wraps up next week in Georgia and then we get the break that we so richly deserve. This year we'll get more than a month, and then we are back at it in Hawaii once again. There's no telling how 2020 will play out, but if it's anything like the start to the season this fall, it's going to be great. 

As for this week, the field is predictably thin as most of the big names have called it quits after the Asian swing. The good news is, we have plenty of course history as El Camaleon has been the only course for this event since its inception in 2007.        

This week: Mayakoba Golf Classic – El Camaleon, Playa Del Carmen, Mexico

Last Year: Matt Kuchar shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Danny Lee.  

FAVORITES

Matt Kuchar (14-1)

Kuchar is the defending champ this week, and if he's not careful he might get bogged down with all the questions about last year's "caddie-gate" at this event. Something tells me Kuchar doesn't really care too much that people's opinion of him might have changed after that incident last year, and as such, he probably won't be phased by all the extra attention this year. What could be a problem is his limited track record here, just two starts and only one good outing. He came out of the gate on fire last season, which means his win could have been a result of great form and great form only.          

Jason Day (16-1)  

Day did not have a great 2019 season, but it already looks as though he's found his old form at the start of the new season. OK, so maybe he's not quite all the way back as his only "win" came at the "Skins Game," but he's played fairly well in his two official starts this season. Day hasn't played this event since 2009, which isn't much of a surprise as he hasn't needed to play in a spot like this for most of the last decade, but now he's in "confidence-building mode" and this is where you gain confidence.            

Viktor Hovland (18-1)

It's actually amazing that Hovland seems to have caught on with both the oddsmakers and the betting public this quickly as he hasn't yet won on the PGA Tour, yet he's consistently among the favorites each week. The reason, of course, is that he's consistently giving himself a chance to win. He is going to win at some point and this spot looks as likely as any as there aren't many big names to outgun this week.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                     

Joaquin Niemann (22-1)

Niemann picked-up his first PGA Tour win in his first start of the fall season, and though he predictably played poorly in the weeks following that win, he has managed to right the ship in his two most recent starts. With some more space from that win and much needed week off, expect Niemann to get back to contending again this week.                

Russell Knox (25-1)

Knox is far from a guy you can trust every week, but his upside is fairly high, especially at events like this. Knox played well in his most recent start, a T11 at the Bermuda Championship and he certainly has the track record here, with two top-3s and a T9 in his last three start at this event.

Charles Howell III (28-1)

Howell is generally a guy you consider using early in the calendar year, but he's had a knack for playing well at this event, which puts him in play. Howell has been hit or miss at this event lately, but he has made eight of 10 cuts overall and posted top-10s in two of his last three starts here.

LONGSHOTS

Emiliano Grillo (33-1)  

Grillo got off to a rough start this fall, but it looks like he's starting to find his way back. Grillo posted a pair of top-30s against some solid fields in Asia and how the competition provides a bit of a break. The real reason to get on Grillo this week, though, is his track record at this event. Grillo has three top-15s in three starts at this event.  

Brice Garnett (80-1)  

If you are a fan of track records, then Garnett's inclusion on this list will not come as much of a surprise. In five starts, Garnett has finished inside the top-7 three times and posted one additional top-25. Garnett has spent five full seasons on the PGA Tour, and while he hasn't had a ton of success, he has played well in spots and this is certainly one of those spots.              

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Russell Knox - This gives you an idea of how I expect the distribution to look this week. I don't expect anyone to be highly owned, especially not the big names, which leaves the second- and third-tier golfers. In steps Knox, who has the track record here to garner some attention this week.                    

Moderately Owned Pick: Emiliano Grillo - Like Knox, Grillo's track record at this event is going to attract some attention. In both cases, the track record is enough to get on board as both guys seem like good options this week. Grillo has longer odds this week, but he's probably a better option as he's proven to be more reliable than Knox the last couple seasons.            

Lightly Owned Pick: Brice Garnett - This is the perfect week to go off the beaten path and if you choose to do so, Garnett is your guy this week. Garnett has played fairly well in three of his four starts this season and again, like the all the guys on this list, he has a strong track record at this event. There won't be a better spot to use Garnett this season.                          

Buyer Beware: Danny Lee - Lee has had a great start to his season and has played well at this event, but he runs very hot and very cold and his last start being two weeks ago worries me. He really is that fickle, where an extra week off can change his entire mindset. I could be jumping the gun, assuming his hot streak will end, but I'm just going off his history, which shows that his hot streaks never last that long.                        

Last Week: Erik van Rooyen (T38) $67,000; Season - $639,659  

This Week: Brice Garnett - I've gone the better part of the last couple months without taking many, if any, big names in this spot and I'm not about to switch it up at this point. Besides, as mentioned, there is no reason to take a big name this week as the best picks are those a little further down the odds chart. Garnett is not the most reliable guy on the PGA Tour, but he's reliable enough in a spot like this.                                                    

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Viktor Hovland ($11,700)/Emiliano Grillo ($10,500)/J.J. Spaun ($8,300)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: no cut; Streak - 1

This Week: Brice Garnett - I would not think of taking Garnett in a normal week, but considering he's made the cut in three of four starts this season and his track record at this event is exceptional, I'll take a chance on him this week. Similar to his Survivor situation, there isn't a spot down the line where you'd need Garnett in this format.