This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
Valero Texas Open
Two of our experts last week were on the Min Woo Lee train and it certainly paid off in a big way to the tune of just over $1.7 million. Lee came in with great form and was one of the top course fits for Memorial Park. Things got touchy coming down the stretch, but Lee had just enough of a gap to survive and pick up PGA Tour win No. 1 over Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland. Lee was one of the most popular plays in the RotoWire OAD pool, and those players made up quite a bit of ground to get back into the fight.
This second leg of this Texas two-step is about a three-hour drive West to San Antonio where we have an identical purse and winner's payout to last week. Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay and Maverick McNealy make it six top-20 ranked golfers who are hoping to get in contention in their final Masters tuneup. There are 96 players who have qualified for The Masters next week, and one more spot is up for grabs for the winner of the Valero Texas Open should they not be already exempt. We saw that happen a year ago when Akshay Bhatia held off a hard-charging Denny McCarthy in a playoff to score the win and qualify for his first Masters the following week.
Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course (7,438 yards, par 72)
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Purse: $9.5 million ($1.71 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Akshay Bhatia (-20)
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Tournaments: -17.2
TPC San Antonio has been the host of the Valero Texas Open since 2010. They play on the Oaks Course which was designed by Greg Norman with consultation from Sergio Garcia. It's a course that does a nice job challenging all aspects of a players game. There's some room to work with off the tee, but bomb and gauge is typically off the table given the tree-lined fairways and penal fairway bunkers. The green complexes here are also quite tricky to attack. There are a lot of runoff areas, deep greenside bunkers and very pronounced ridges on these putting surfaces. The top players in SG: Approach are generally near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. The greens are also usually not the most receptive, so it takes a really well struck shot to get the ball to stop close to some of the more tricky set of pin positions on Tour. We also see quite a bit of wind during this tournament. Combine that with the course sitting at 1,100 feet of elevation, and you can see how players and caddies who are dialed in are able to separate themselves here with ball-striking. Last year Bhatia and McCarthy finished nine clear of third place Rory McIlroy.
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Valero Texas Open: One and Done Picks
I thought about going with Jordan Spieth in this spot, but Conners seems like the better play. Even though he's bound to be on a lot of OAD teams, sometimes you just have to make the right play, and that looks to be Conners. Conners has won this event twice and his form suggests he could make that a trifecta when the week is done. --Greg Vara
There are plenty of very viable options, but I'm going to go with Bradley because of his consistent ball striking and solid record at TPC San Antonio. The U.S. Ryder Cup Captain has made his last 13 cuts while recording with four top-6 finishes and nine top-25s in that stretch. Bradley ranks top-25 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, total driving, SG: Approach and proximity. He is also 5-for-6 at TPC San Antonio with a pair of top-10 finishes. --Ryan Andrade
Mitchell has a solid track record at TPC San Antonio with finishes of T26, T17 and his T14 last year. He also ranked top-5 in SG: Off-the-Tee in two of three appearances. Mitchell is coming off a season-best T18 finish at Memorial Park as well. Mitchell's ball striking continues to shine, but he has lost strokes with his short game in five consecutive tournaments. If he can right the ship in that area, I like his chances to contend. --Ryan Pohle
The 2021 Valero Texas Open champion has gained an average of 7.2 strokes from tee to green per start throughout his last six trips to TPC San Antonio, and he's coming off a season-high 7.6 strokes gained on approach at the Valspar Championship. Despite the name brand, Spieth isn't a player you need to save for majors/signature events, and I think he's live to pick up his first victory in nearly three years. --Bryce Danielson
One of these days, Fleetwood will win a PGA Tour event, right? A lot of things must align for that to happen, and that looks like it could happen this week. For one, this isn't the deepest field and he's one of the top guys in it. Also, he's been playing very well in 2025, with four finishes of top-16 or better in five starts. And they've mostly come in far tougher fields. Fleetwood is ranked 12th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Tee-to-Green. Finally, he has even played well here before, finishing seventh a year ago. --Len Hochberg
Valero Texas Open: One and Done Fades
It's not often that I have to go this far down the odds chart to find someone to avoid, but that's the case this week as the golfers in front of Finau are either good plays or not up to the standard of avoidance. Anyhow, Finau gets the double-whammy this week as his form is not very good entering the week and his track record here is lacking. He is a big name however, which might draw in some OAD players, but I'd simply just wait him out and take him later in the season when his form is sure to return. --Greg Vara
After a strong close to 2024 and the he came out and won The Sentry, it seemed like we might be in for one of Matsuyama's best seasons on Tour. It just hasn't quite happened since that win at Kapalua, as Matsuyama has not had a top-10 in seven starts since then. He's really struggled of late with his iron play, losing strokes approaching the green in three of his last five starts, which is not something you normally worry about with him. Matsuyama is also having one of his worst driving seasons at 104th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 168th in driving accuracy. He has played well at TPC San Antonio the last couple years, but I'd rather wait until we see some better ball-striking form. --Ryan Andrade
Matsuyama is coming off a missed cut at The PLAYERS and has lost strokes on approach in back-to-back tournaments. He's failed to post a top-10 since winning The Sentry, and it probably makes more sense to save him for a major or a signature event. The Memorial or U.S. Open are my preferred targets for Matsuyama if you haven't used him already. --Ryan Pohle
Nobody beat Woodland's eight-under 62 this past Sunday at Memorial Park, and his valiant T2 effort at the Texas Children's Houston Open ended a disappointing MC-MC-MC-T47 stretch from The Genesis Invitational through the Valspar Championship. However, it's unlikely we ever see Woodland gain more than eight strokes putting in an event again for the remainder of his career, and I want a bit more win equity from someone who might surpass the five-percent owned mark but can still be found longer than 50/1 outright. In my opinion, he's a better inexpensive click in DFS/betting formats than OAD this week. --Bryce Danielson
Saying Aberg is a "fade" is too strong of a word. Just don't think he will win this week because he's got one eye looking ahead to the Masters, where he had a phenomenal debut a year ago, finishing second to Scottie Scheffler. --Len Hochberg
