This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
After a week off for most One-and-Done leagues due to the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas for the third of four events on the schedule in the Lone Star State. This will be the fifth time the Byron Nelson has been hosted at TPC Craig Ranch. Apart from Scottie Scheffler, it is a pretty grim looking field with just one other player -- Sungjae Im, at No. 20 -- finding himself among the top 35 in the OWGR. Most of the other top players are taking some time off to get prepped for a big upcoming stretch that includes three signature events and and two majors in a seven-week stretch. While THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson won't have as much consequence in OAD as some of those bigger tournaments, the $9.9 million purse is the largest among regular events on the PGA Tour. That said, OAD players can't take this week for granted, even with a lackluster field.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,569 yards, par 71)
- Location: McKinney, Texas
- Purse: $9.9 million ($1.782 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Taylor Pendrith (-23)
- 2024 Scoring Average: 68.50
- Average Winning Score Last 4 Tournaments: -24.25
TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the ultimate birdie barrages on the PGA Tour since it was introduced to the schedule back in 2021. Not only has the winning score averaged just over 24-under-par over these last four years, but just to make the weekend has taken a score of 4-under, 5-under and 6-under twice during that span. The ultimate formula when we get into a shootout is hitting greens and sinking putts. That will once again be the case this week, but after some new tee boxes were added for this year's tournament, TPC Craig Ranch now reads 7,569 yards as a par 71. The bombers will certainly be able to feast around here, especially considering the width of these fairways and lack of rollout.
Spring time in Texas is always a bit of a question mark in terms of whether or not we see a delay. Storms are known to pop up at any time, but as of now the biggest risk of weather is on Friday. It seems unlikely that one side of the draw would have a big advantage, but you just never know how these things are going to work out with the timing of the delays. That all said, we know that when play is taking place on this golf course that it's going to play soft. Really the only defense Craig Ranch has is the wind, and it doesn't ever appear that it will reach a point where these players will have to play conservative. If you're not shooting at least 5-to-6-under per round, you're getting left in the dust this week.
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RotoWire One and Done Tools
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: One and Done Picks
I thought about using Byeong Hun An here, but I think he'll be fairly popular, so I'm going with Kim. I like Kim for two reasons this week. First, he's only a couple weeks removed from some really good golf. Yes, he cracked in the final round at the RBC, but he played very well in the three rounds leading up to that. Second, you're going to need someone with a lot of upside to best Scheffler this week and Kim has just that. He hasn't shown it in quite a while, but it's there. --Greg Vara
This event feels pretty wide open after crossing off heavy favorite Scheffler, who you'd want to save for a larger purse, so I'm comfortable reaching a bit further down the outright odds board than usual to find a lower-owned ceiling pivot like Gerard, especially if facing a deficit in large-field pools. He recently notched back-to-back top-10s at the Texas Children's Houston Open and the Valero Texas Open, and Gerard ranks 13th or better in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. --Bryce Danielson
Scheffler is the obvious pick, and if you have Scheffler, why not use him here? He's under 3-1 odds, probably the lowest he'll be all season -- because the field is so weak. But it's understandable if you don't want to burn Scheffler here at a smaller winner's share. I don't even have that choice because Scheffler was a pick already. Spieth is the No. 2 choice in the field. He'll be the most popular pick this week. You have to ask yourself: Will I use Spieth at all this season? If the answer is no, okay. If the answer is yes, this would be the best week to use him the rest of the season. --Len Hochberg
Hughes has been hot of late with a T10 finish in Houston followed up by a top-5 in a signature event at Harbour Town two weeks ago. He's also shown form at the event, shooting 65 or better in five of his last eight rounds at TPC Craig Ranch highlighted by a T14 in 2023. At a place where putting tends to be a key factor, this is a great time to use Hughes. --Ryan Pohle
TPC Craig Ranch where aggressive play is rewarded and there's not many more aggressive on Tour than Jaeger. He usually just takes driver every time and looks to hammer it as far as possible. That will play on this venue. Jaeger's approach play has been very strong of late, gaining strokes in his last five starts, including three of those events when he was north of 1.2 strokes per round. Jaeger is also top-35 in SG: Putting and putts per GIR. He's never missed a cut at Craig Ranch in three starts with a pair of top-20s the last two years. --Ryan Andrade
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: One and Done Fades
He's lost an average of 3.1 strokes on approach per event throughout his last five starts dating back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so I'm willing to fade a popular Im at a venue that requires precise iron play in order to accumulate enough birdie chances to contend. Additionally, Im traveled to and from South Korea this past week just to miss the cut at the Woori Financial Group Championship. --Bryce Danielson
It's dangerous fading one of the higher-ranked players in a field that's so weak. But you can't fade a scrub, so here we are. Kim has been pretty bad this season. In 10 starts, he has only one top-25 (T7 at Pebble Beach). Yes, he's been great on approach -- ranked 13th on Tour -- but awful everywhere else. At a track where you better make birdies, Kim is ranked 150th putting inside 10 feet and 136th in birdie average. In three spins around Craig Ranch, Kim has never finished better than 17th -- and that was in his first try three years ago. --Len Hochberg
Burns is likely to be on people's radar considering he has a runner-up finish here, but that was four years ago when he was in much better form. He hasn't recorded a top-10 since the season opening event and has missed the cut in each of the last three full field events he's played in. Burns has struggled mightily with his iron play, and I'd like to see some improvement in that regard before I consider using him. --Ryan Pohle
A shootout like what we will see this week at Craig Ranch is all about giving yourself as many quality birdie looks as possible. That said, it's really hard to back a player who ranks 178th in SG: Approach this season. Funny enough, Im has actually never played a tournament at this venue, and is also coming off a missed cut back on the Korean Tour last week. Im's biggest strengths this season of driving accuracy and scrambling won't really be that important to the overall equation at Craig Ranch. Save him for later in the year. --Ryan Andrade
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
