This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
Two thousand FedEx Cup points will be dished out to the winner of this week's Northern Trust, quadruple the amount of a regular season victory as the playoffs commence at New Jersey's Liberty National. The pool of PGA Tour card holders has been cut down to the FedEx Cup standings' top-125, but come Sunday afternoon, only 70 will advance to the BMW Championship where they'll battle for a coveted spot in the TOUR Championship. We'll now jump into several fantasy trends and a few injury updates with only three events remaining on the 2018-19 schedule.
VALUE RISING
Simpson ascended to 13th in the OWGR after notching his third runner-up finish in five starts this past week in Greensboro. The North Carolina native gained at least 1.5 strokes on the field in each Strokes Gained category at Sedgefield CC, and he's now gained a collective 28.5 strokes with the flat stick over his last four measured events. He's up to ninth in the FedEx Cup standings and second on Tour in scoring average as he heads to Liberty National, where Simpson placed top-15 twice at the Northern Trust in 2009 and 2013.
Residing one spot ahead of Simpson in the OWGR, Fleetwood followed up his solo runner-up performance at the Open Championship with a T4 in Memphis as the FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he gained 7.6 strokes from tee to green. The Englishman has finished no worse than T23 over his past four starts and he
Two thousand FedEx Cup points will be dished out to the winner of this week's Northern Trust, quadruple the amount of a regular season victory as the playoffs commence at New Jersey's Liberty National. The pool of PGA Tour card holders has been cut down to the FedEx Cup standings' top-125, but come Sunday afternoon, only 70 will advance to the BMW Championship where they'll battle for a coveted spot in the TOUR Championship. We'll now jump into several fantasy trends and a few injury updates with only three events remaining on the 2018-19 schedule.
VALUE RISING
Simpson ascended to 13th in the OWGR after notching his third runner-up finish in five starts this past week in Greensboro. The North Carolina native gained at least 1.5 strokes on the field in each Strokes Gained category at Sedgefield CC, and he's now gained a collective 28.5 strokes with the flat stick over his last four measured events. He's up to ninth in the FedEx Cup standings and second on Tour in scoring average as he heads to Liberty National, where Simpson placed top-15 twice at the Northern Trust in 2009 and 2013.
Residing one spot ahead of Simpson in the OWGR, Fleetwood followed up his solo runner-up performance at the Open Championship with a T4 in Memphis as the FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he gained 7.6 strokes from tee to green. The Englishman has finished no worse than T23 over his past four starts and he hasn't missed a single cut worldwide since the HNA Open de France in July of 2018. He's collected six top-10s in 15 starts on the PGA Tour this season, ultimately ranking seventh in scoring average, 11th in SG: T2G, fifth in sand save percentage and first in scrambling.
Reed normally relies on his short game to produce noteworthy results, but his ball striking has improved as of late en route to an average of 5.9 strokes gained from tee to green over his last five tournaments. He's gaining strokes across the board this season, highlighted by his ranking of 14th in SG: Around-the-Green and 28th in one-putt percentage as the aforementioned short-game prowess continues to shine through. The 2016 Northern Trust champion has finished no worse than a T32 in seven events dating back to the U.S. Open.
Garnett has finally turned things around with the flat stick, gaining an average of 3.3 strokes putting over his past five tourneys. This has translated to results of T17-T23-T37-T18-T6 from the Rocket Mortgage Classic to the Wyndham Championship, finishing seventh among the field in SG: Putting at Sedgefield CC as he knocked in 19 total par-breakers. He comfortably qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs at 95th in points, but he'll likely need at least another top-15 showing this week at the Northern Trust in order to advance to the BMW Championship.
VALUE FALLING
List has really fallen off since notching a solo-sixth at the PGA Championship back in May, missing the cut in six straight appearances from the Memorial Tournament to the Wyndham Championship. He's not on pace to qualify for the BMW Championship and he remains outside of the top-150 on Tour in SG: Putting and driving accuracy. Even more detrimental to his outlook, List has lost strokes on approach shots in seven of his last eight starts.
Similarly to List, Tway had experienced a disappointing stretch of six consecutive missed cuts earlier in the season from the Waste Management Phoenix Open to the Valero Texas Open. Tway managed to rebound by making the cut in his next six starts, however, culminating with a T5 at the Travelers Championship that allowed him to rejoin the top-100 in the OWGR. Unfortunately for Tway, a midsummer slump has followed with results of MC-63-MC-MC over his last four events. He recently lost a whopping 12.8 strokes from tee to green at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and finished dead last out of the 63-man field as a result.
Homa has an inside track to advancing to the BMW Championship thanks to his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, but the 28-year-old's short game has been brutal since the PGA Championship. He's lost strokes around the green in five of his last six starts and he lost a combined 9.3 strokes putting at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and 3M Open. The win at Quail Hollow marks his only top-25 performance over his past 11 starts and he ranks just 152nd in GIR percentage.
INJURY UPDATE
Woods was only able to chip and putt throughout his back nine at the Northern Trust during Wednesday's pro-am as back stiffness crept in, and although limited practice reps are expected for the 43-year-old, his status should still be monitored ahead of Thursday's first round. He's coming off a missed cut at the Open Championship and has only played in four total events since securing another green jacket in April, but he still ranks fifth in the OWGR and 28th in the FedEx Cup standings.
Cabrera Bello will no longer be in the field for the Northern Trust as he awaits the expected birth of his first child, but he'll slip from his current positioning of 59th in the FedEx Cup standings as a result. The Spaniard could potentially be unavailable for the BMW Championship, anyways, depending on the timeline coordinated with his family matters. Aside from a missed cut at the Open Championship, Cabrera Bello's recent form has been quite noteworthy with a quartet of top-12s in five starts.
Expect Burns to be sidelined for the entirety of the FedEx Cup Playoffs as he continues to recover from a broken ankle, originally sustained off the course in late July while playing basketball in his neighborhood. The Shreveport Times noted that he could miss at least a couple months, so a return at the 2019-20 season opener doesn't seem too likely. Burns' 2018-19 campaign was otherwise satisfactory as he racked up six top-25s and over $1M in on-course earnings.
