This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
Cameron Smith's mullet took center stage as spring break sentiments accompanied he and Marc Leishman's team victory in playoff fashion at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week, but serious game faces return as the Valspar Championship ensues on the difficult Copperhead track at Innisbrook.
With April's Masters buzz wearing off, let's take a look at several fantasy-value shifters ahead of May's arrival.
VALUE RISING
Hoffman's 2021 campaign began with a concerning opening chapter as back-to-back WDs at the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open preceded a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, dropping outside the top-150 of the Official World Golf Ranking in early February. A T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would kickstart a major turnaround, however, as the 44-year-old has now placed T18 or better in five of his last seven starts. His current streak of seven consecutive made cuts is highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Valero Texas Open, where he gained a career-high 13.2 strokes from tee to green. Hoffman has also gained an average of 4.3 strokes per event on his approach shots throughout the last five measured tournaments he's made an appearance.
Grillo has racked up a top-25 result in five of seven starts dating to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, flirting with the top-30 mark in the FedEx Cup standings as he currently resides 39th in points. He most recently followed a T6 at the Corales Championship with a T2
Cameron Smith's mullet took center stage as spring break sentiments accompanied he and Marc Leishman's team victory in playoff fashion at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week, but serious game faces return as the Valspar Championship ensues on the difficult Copperhead track at Innisbrook.
With April's Masters buzz wearing off, let's take a look at several fantasy-value shifters ahead of May's arrival.
VALUE RISING
Hoffman's 2021 campaign began with a concerning opening chapter as back-to-back WDs at the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open preceded a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, dropping outside the top-150 of the Official World Golf Ranking in early February. A T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would kickstart a major turnaround, however, as the 44-year-old has now placed T18 or better in five of his last seven starts. His current streak of seven consecutive made cuts is highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Valero Texas Open, where he gained a career-high 13.2 strokes from tee to green. Hoffman has also gained an average of 4.3 strokes per event on his approach shots throughout the last five measured tournaments he's made an appearance.
Grillo has racked up a top-25 result in five of seven starts dating to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, flirting with the top-30 mark in the FedEx Cup standings as he currently resides 39th in points. He most recently followed a T6 at the Corales Championship with a T2 at the RBC Heritage, ranking fourth among the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green at Harbour Town. Grillo leads the entire PGA Tour in proximity this season, but he's also second in GIR percentage, 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in total birdies.
Making his first start on American soil since the 2019 U.S. Open at this week's Valspar Championship, Horsfield has yet to finish worse than T15 through four events on the European Tour in 2021. The 24-year-old Englishman won twice overseas last August at the Hero Open and Celtic Classic, though he's now up to a career-best 79th in the OWGR thanks to recent top-5s at the Kenya Savannah Classic and the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open. Horsfield paces the Euro Tour in putts per GIR and he's No. 2 in stroke average.
VALUE FALLING
Poston's iron play has been atrocious with an average of 3.8 strokes lost on his approaches per tourney through his last five measured starts. He failed to advance to the weekend in his last two showings at the RBC Heritage and the Honda Classic, so Poston has now already missed eight cuts throughout the 2020-21 campaign. The putter has been a bright spot for Poston since late January, but ball-striking concerns provide a gloomy forecast.
On the other end of the spectrum, short-game woes have plagued Knox while he's lost strokes both around and on the greens in four consecutive starts dating to the PLAYERS Championship. He's gone six straight events without any finish better than a T67, missing a quartet of cuts during this span as well. Knox will look to turn things around at the Valspar Championship, having placed top-25 at Innisbrook in 2018 and 2019.
Clark absolutely pounds it off the tee, but sacrificing accuracy for distance in such an exaggerated manner has caused him to finish on the negative side of SG: OTT in five of his last six starts. He's already a below-average iron player, so an inability to find fairways is becoming quite the hindrance. Clark has lost an average of 2.2 strokes on his approach shots per tournament over his last five events and he missed three consecutive cuts from the Arnold Palmer Invitational through the Honda Classic before placing outside the top-60 at the RBC Heritage.
INJURY UPDATE
Cauley had quietly stepped away from competition since a top-15 at the Safeway Open in mid-September, but he recently revealed via his personal Twitter that surgery was ultimately required this week to address the pain that had resurfaced from a previous injury at some point last fall. He plans to begin practicing and playing again upon a return to full health, but remains without a clear timetable.
