This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
WGC-Mexico Championship
Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec (7,345 yards, par 71)
Purse: $10,500,000
Winner: $1,785,000 and 550 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Since its introduction as host of a World Golf Championship in 2017, Club de Golf Chapultepec has been one of the most intriguing courses on Tour. The biggest challenges come from the fact that we will be playing at more than 7,800 feet above sea level, thus yardages will have to be adjusted by around 10-15 percent to account for the increased ball flight. Nobody has adjusted to this course better than Dustin Johnson, who has a pair of wins and a T7 in three starts. While we are slated to have another fantastic field that includes 15 of the top 20 players in the OWGR, one cannot help but notice some of the names that have qualified but decided to skip a 68-man field with no cut. Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, and Rickie Fowler are among the handful that will not tee it up in Mexico. Adam Scott won the last year this event was hosted at Doral in 2016 before moving to Chapultepec, and will also be going for his third worldwide win in as many starts. There should not be any threat of rain this week with temperatures peaking in the low-80's. Winds will reach close to 20 mph on Thursday and Friday, but are expected to die down a bit on the weekend.
Recent Champions
2019 – Dustin Johnson (Chapultepec)
2018 – Phil Mickelson (Chapultepec)
2017 – Dustin Johnson (Chapultepec)
2016 – Adam Scott (Doral)
2015 – Dustin Johnson (Doral)
2014 – Patrick Reed (Doral)
2013 – Tiger Woods (Doral)
2012 – Justin Rose (Doral)
2011 – Nick Watney (Doral)
2010 – Ernie Els (Doral)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Off-the-tee
SG: Putting
SG: Approach
Scrambling
Champion's Profile
Players will be teeing off from proverbial launching pads, but have to be able to fit it into relatively narrow fairways that are extremely tree-lined. Length is always an advantage, but especially at Chapultepec. The long hitters will be able to cut quite a few of the doglegs out there and reach all three par-5's in two shots, as well as possibly be able to drive as many as three of the par-4's. It is the type of course where the most accurate of the long drivers is likely going to win. Iron play will obviously also be important, as a number of greens are very undulating and require precise shots to be able to get close to the pins. It will also be a big week for the caddies trying to give their players the right clubs after adjusting the distance for the extreme elevation. The greens at Chapultepec are similar to some of the courses on the West Coast swing being a mix of poa annua and bentgrass. You will see quite a few misses inside of five feet, as these greens have proven to be some of the slickest on Tour.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Dustin Johnson, ($12,000)
Johnson has cracked this list the last two weeks as well, but hasn't quite delivered what you are paying top dollar for with finishes of T32-T10. That being said, his 1st-T7-1st record at Chapultepec is impossible to ignore. His high bombing fade off the tee just fits so perfectly for this course. The putter is not something that we typically think of as a weapon with Johnson, but last year he led the field in SG: Putting in his runaway victory. He was also first in the field at Riviera in putts per GIR.
Tommy Fleetwood, ($11,000)
There is no cut to worry about this week, but it is still worth mentioning that Fleetwood has not missed a cut in his last 44 starts worldwide. His last four starts have been even more impressive, finishing 1st-2nd-T2-T11. This Englishman has also played well at Chapultepec, posting a runner-up finish the first time in 2017, and following with a pair of top-20's the last two years. There's really no weakness with Fleetwood's game, as he has ranked inside the top-55 in every strokes gained category the last two seasons.
Louis Oosthuizen, ($10,400)
Even in a great field, this is a really nice price for a man that has finished inside the top-25 in 12 of his last 13 starts with six top-six finishes in that span. Oosthuizen's best finish in three starts at Chapultepec was a T25 last year, but he has never come in with as much form as he has now. He is currently seventh in GIR percentage, sixth in scoring average, and third in SG: Total this season on the European Tour.
Sergio Garcia, ($10,300)
Through the first three editions at Chapultepec, other than Dustin Johnson of course, Garcia has been as good as anyone. He has gone T12-T7-T6 with a scoring average just a shade over 68.5. Garcia's success here makes sense considering how great of a driver he has always been. This season he currently ranks fourth in SG: Off-the-tee and he is also 10th in SG: Tee-to-green. Garcia owns three top-10s and four top-25s in his last six starts worldwide.
Longer Shots with Value
Sungjae Im, ($9,700)
Im is coming off a rare missed cut last week at Riviera, but it has knocked him down to a very tasty $9,700 price tag. Im will be making his first appearance at Chapultepec, but he plays all over the world and can adapt well to any course. He's off to a great start to the season with four top-11's and six top-25s. Im ranks 21st in SG: Off-the-tee and 27th in SG: Putting, two huge keys here at Chapultepec. He is also top-12 in both birdie and scoring average.
Victor Perez, ($9,300)
Perez has ascended to a career-high 38th in the OWGR this week. He has posted seven top-20's in his last nine starts worldwide, including a win and a pair of runner-up's. The Frenchman has the game to succeed at Chapultepec. He is a bomber with a smooth putting stroke. This season Perez ranks inside the top-30 on the European Tour in driving distance and putts per GIR.
Tyrrell Hatton, ($9,100)
The only reason you wouldn't take Hatton at $9,100 this week is the fact that he hasn't teed it up competitively since the end of 2019. Prior to that, Hatton had posted five top-20's in his last six starts, including his victory at the Turkish Airlines Open. Hatton is the best putter on this list and he also ranked 34th last season in SG: Tee-to-green. The Englishman likes Chapultepec with finishes of 10th-T3-T19.
Kurt Kitayama, ($8,800)
Kitayama is an interesting prospect in this range that has a lot of potential. He is now inside the top-70 in the OWGR after posting seven top-25s in his last 12 starts. Kitayama has also notched four top-six finishes in that stretch. He is another bomber, ranking sixth last season in driving distance on the European Tour. Kitayama has taken the next step on the greens this season as well, currently ranking top-20 in both putts per GIR and average putts per round.
Strategy Tips for this week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The question is whether or not to take one of the top-four options of Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas. The problem is if you take one, not only do they need to play well, but they need to outscore the other three options as well. I think if you're going to take a shot at one of them it has to be Johnson because of his course history, but McIlroy and Thomas have also been pretty good here too. I'm more in favor of targeting four players from $10,000-$11,000 and rounding out my team with a pair of players between $8,500 and $9,300. I'm a firm believer that approach play is the most important factor to success amongst Tour players, but this week I'm more all-in on bombers that can putt. There are just a lot of strokes to be gained off the tee around Chapultepec and the greens will be the main defense of the course.
