This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass (7,275 yards, par 72)
Purse: $25,000,000
Winner: $4,500,000 and 600 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The PGA Tour's flagship event is set to take place once again at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. This is the beginning of a seven-month stretch which includes the biggest events in golf. With THE PLAYERS Championship moving back to March a few years ago, it provides a nice flow to the season with The Masters in April, the PGA Championship in May, the U.S. Open in June, The Open Championship in July, the FedExCup playoffs in August, and the Ryder Cup in September. There will be a new record purse of $25 million up for grabs at THE PLAYERS Championship, with the winner receiving $4.5 million. Winning the PGA Tour's flagship event will also award 600 FedExCup points and 80 OWGR points.
TPC Sawgrass is without a doubt on the Mount Rushmore of iconic golf courses with Augusta National, St Andrews, and Pebble Beach. The Pete Dye design is able to challenge the best players in the world in every facet of the game. The closing three-hole stretch of the gettable par-5 16th, island green on the par-3 17th, and difficult par-4 18th with water down the entire left hand side, make up one of the most exciting finishing stretches in all of golf. Many great rounds have gone to die on that closing stretch of holes at TPC Sawgrass. Over the previous 41 editions of THE PLAYERS Championship held at TPC Sawgrass, nine-under 63 still holds up as the course record and has been done nine times before. Greg Norman holds the 72-hole scoring record of 24-under-par back in 1994. Since that tournament, no other player has finished 72 holes lower than 18-under-par.
The field of 144 players this week is made up primarily of the top 125 from last season's FedExCup Standings. The remainder of the field is filled out by recent champions of big events, top 50 in OWGR not otherwise exempt, the Senior Players Championship winner from last year, Korn Ferry Tour money leader from last year, and any spots left after that is based off of the current FedExCup points standings. When you consider the number of old champions that are invited back every year for the Masters and Open Championships, the number of amateurs at the U.S. Open, and the number of club professionals at the PGA Championship, THE PLAYERS Championship is without question the best field in golf from top to bottom.
There was somewhat of an asterisk on last year's Players Championship because of the massive scoring gap between the two sides of the draw due to an incredible weather week. Several inches of rain fell on site, there were winds gusting to nearly 50 miles per hour, and temperatures that fell into the 40's. It was just unfortunate that the PGA Tour's biggest event had so many weather issues for the players, fans, and grounds crew to deal with. The good news is that the forecast looks much better in 2023. Temperatures should be in the mid-70's and winds should average in the 10-15 miles per hour range throughout most of the week. A shower this week can't be ruled out of the question with the greatest chance of that coming on Friday afternoon. Cameron Smith prevailed behind an epic Sunday putting performance last year, but the Aussie won't be in the field in 2023 after signing with LIV Golf.
Recent Champions
2022 - Cameron Smith (-13)
2021 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018 - Webb Simpson (-18)
2017 - Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016 - Jason Day (-15)
2015 - Rickie Fowler (-12)
2014 - Martin Kaymer (-13)
2013 - Tiger Woods (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
TPC Sawgrass is really a perfect championship golf course. There's plenty of gettable holes, and there's plenty of holes where you can make a really big number. There is also no type of player that this course favors, and no type of player that can't play well here. Because of that we see a ton of variability on a year-to-year basis. If you look at all the top players, many of them have pretty up-and-down records here. Some of that can also be attributed to the fact that this is the deepest field in golf and just under half of the field will make the weekend. Considering all of that, I think the easiest thing to trust this week is going to be recent form.
You have to do everything well to contend this week. It isn't a long course, but there is a lot of trouble you can get yourself into off these tees. If you're fortunate enough to find the fairways, the job is far from over. Ever since the move back to March it has made the wind more of a factor, and that in turn will show up on the second shots the most. Finding greens in regulation will be a key, especially with water coming into play on nearly half of the approach shots. We've also seen some amazing short game performances at TPC Sawgrass. It won't be quite the same as last week at Bay Hill with all the long rough around the the greens. There is plenty of runoff areas and a lot of challenging bunker shots players are going to have to navigate. Lastly of course in the putter. These bermuda greens will run around 13 on the Stimpmeter, and if we don't get any precipitation, should be extremely firm come the weekend. They will still run extremely true and if you get them on line, they are going to fall. Just look at Smith, who was a one-putt machine on the final day last year.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($11,900)
McIlroy shook off a couple of subpar finishes with another strong performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ended the week as a co-runner up and it didn't really even feel like he had his best stuff for most of the week. What encourages me about McIlroy for TPC Sawgrass is his combination of ball striking and short game. The Northern Irishman gained strokes both off the tee and approaching the green in his last 10 starts, and over that stretch has also gained shots around the greens in nine of them.
Justin Thomas ($11,600)
Thomas' game is trending up after an inconsistent summer. He finished top-25 in his last six starts and showed a lot of improvement in his ball striking. Thomas currently leads the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, which I think gives him a pretty high floor, especially if the wind kicks up at this place. Thomas is one of just a few players that can say he has made the cut in all of his seven appearances at TPC Sawgrass, which also includes his win in 2021.
Viktor Hovland ($10,900)
Hovland feels like a pretty safe play. He has had another brilliant driving season, but his irons have been a little down from what we've come to expect out of the elite ball striker. Hovland has been able to turn that around recently, gaining on approach in five of the last six measured tournaments, and that doesn't even include his win at the Hero World Challenge. His short game continues to improve and he is now 36th in scrambling and 26th in putts per hole. Hovland scored a ninth-place finish at TPC Sawgrass last year and seems to thrive on these flat bermuda golf courses.
Max Homa ($10,600)
This price really stood out to me. I'm not sure how Homa gets left outside the top 10 highest-priced players. He has made the cut in all eight of his starts this season and owns just one finish outside the top 25. That includes a pair of wins and two other top-three results. Homa is 14th in total driving, sixth in SG: Approach, seventh in scrambling and eighth in SG: Putting this season. He also scored a top-15 finish a year ago at TPC Sawgrass.
Longer Shots with Value
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,900)
Hatton being in the $9K range is really a crime considering how well he has been playing. The Englishman hasn't missed a cut since the Irish Open last summer, and after a T4 finish at Bay Hill now owns seven top-15 finishes over his last 10 starts. Hatton's stats on the PGA Tour this season jump off the page and suggest he will be a contender again this week. He ranks second in total driving, ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 12th in birdie-or-better conversion percentage.
Keegan Bradley ($9,200)
Bradley has a ton of experience at TPC Sawgrass. He has made 12 starts, but more notably has been the fact that he has finished top-30 in each of his last four, including a fifth place finish last year. Bradley is coming off another top-10 finish at Bay Hill. He continues to drive it well and control his irons beautifully, but his putting numbers have really improved this season and become a real strength. It would be hard to see Bradley not being in the mix come Sunday.
Ryan Fox ($8,100)
Fox has obviously done most of his work on the DP World Tour, but he put together an impressive top-15 showing last week at the API. He has now finished top 20 in his last four starts worldwide. I really love the way this guy is striking the ball, particularly with his irons where he has gained in seven of his last eight measured tournaments. Three of those weeks he gained north of 7.5 strokes approaching the green. I think you could do a lot worse at this price given the fact that Fox has played in so many majors and big events over the last few seasons.
Kurt Kitayama ($8,100)
It's important to note that these prices came out in advance of the completion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and because of that Kitayama is the most mispriced player in the field. Confidence is everything out here and Kitayama certainly has plenty of that going to a golf course that offers a lot of similar challenges at Bay Hill. We've seen the likes of Tiger Woods (2013) and Jason Day (2016) click off both the API and Players in the same year over this last decade. Not saying Kitayama can do it again, but at this price it certainly could give you some more flexibility in roster builds.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is probably the toughest field of the year to handicap because it is just so deep. Other guys like Harris English ($8,200) and Davis Riley ($7,600) are mispriced because the salaries came out before the end of the API, in which they made Sunday charges. I think the $9K range is extremely deep and loaded with players who have great records in this event and who are also playing some strong golf. Names in that boat would be Day ($9,600), Adam Scott ($9,600), and Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500). As I mentioned only the top 65 and ties will make the cut from this 144-man field, so a bunch of really talented players will be going home early. My best advice would be to stick with golfers who have been playing consistent golf and who have been gaining a lot of strokes in the ball-striking department over the past few months.
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