This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Honda Classic
Course: PGA National (7,125 yards, par 70)
Purse: $7,000,000
Winner: $1,260,00 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Honda Classic had enjoyed a bit of an uptick in field strength over the course of the last decade. Unfortunately with some of the realignment this season surrounding the Florida Swing, this week's event seemed to take the biggest blow. With two invitationals, a WGC, and THE PLAYERS Championship the four weeks prior, and another WGC the week to follow, this makes sense as an off week for some of the top players in the world, especially with the Masters rapidly approaching in early April.
Daniel Berger is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 15 in the OWGR. Notable past champions in the field include Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, and Russell Henley. Lee Westwood will be a popular selection this week, as he looks to break through after taking silver each of the last two weeks.
Since the event moved to PGA National back in 2007, this has been one of the most challenging tests year in and year out on Tour. In the 14 years the Honda Classic has been held at PGA National, the winner has reached double figures under-par just three times. Camilo Villegas' five-stroke triumph back in 2010 was the lowest 72-hole score here at 13-under-par. The infamous "Bear Trap" will be lurking this week ready to ruin a good round. The par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th make up one of the most difficult three hole stretches on Tour.
As is typical for this event, winds will be up all week on this very exposed course, leaving every shot regardless of length with a bit of uncertainty. It would be a surprise if we didn't get at least some precipitation throughout the course of the four days as well.
Recent Champions
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green
- Driving Accuracy
Champion's Profile
PGA National has traditionally been a course to reward elite ball-striking more than strong putters. Just look at Sungjae Im last year who led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and was T2 in GIR's, but was outside the top-35 in SG: Putting. A lot of that has to do with the customary strong breezes that roll through this area. With all the trouble that is lurking around this course, if you're not hitting it solidly that wind is just going to eat up your golf ball and leave you in a very difficult position. PGA National is not overly long at all and most holes are more about position off the tee than pure length. That should bring a lot more players into it this week than some other courses on Tour. Lastly, your short game will need to be on point to win this week. This is one of the toughest courses on Tour in terms of average GIR's so even the best ball-strikers will find themselves having to scramble from difficult Bermudagrass, whether that's thick lies out of the rough, tight into the grain lies from the fairway. The TifEagle Bermuda greens will be prepped to run around 12 on the Stimpmeter this week. It might not always be pretty, but sometimes you just need to grind out a score on such a difficult test. The wind is expected to be the most impactful in the first round, so it will be slap in the face right away for the majority of the field.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Lee Westwood ($11,500)
The 47-year-old has had a bit of a renaissance, and he now finds himself back inside the top-20 in the OWGR after back-to-back runner-up finishes at two huge events. While he struggled on Sunday a bit, Westwood put on a ball-striking clinic the first three days at TPC Sawgrass. That certainly bodes well for his chances at PGA National, especially considering how well his short game and putting have come around with age. Westwood's record here is impressive, as he's 7-for-7 with four top-10s.
Shane Lowry ($11,100)
Lowry really thrives in windy and challenging conditions. That is mostly because of how solidly he hits the ball and his ability to control trajectory. The Irishman is 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 34th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. On top of that he is 37th in SG: Around-the-Green. Lowry is coming off a solo eighth place finish at TPC Sawgrass last week and is 3-for-3 at PGA National including a T21 last year.
Russell Henley ($10,900)
It's no coincidence that Henley has always played well at PGA National because he is such a good ball-striker. He ranks top-20 on Tour this season in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, and proximity to the hole. Henley's short game improvements have turned him into a much better player, as this season he is sitting sixth in scrambling. The former Georgia Bulldog has gone 7-for-8 with a win in 2014 and five top-25's.
Brendan Steele ($10,400)
PGA National has been good to Steele in the past, as he has gone 8-for-9 here with top-15 finishes in four of his last five starts. Steele is also playing some nice golf right now, having made the cut in all seven of his starts in 2021. The 37-year-old ranks top-50 this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Around-the-green, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, and proximity to the hole.
Longer Shots with Value
Doug Ghim ($9,800)
Ghim made headlines last week at TPC Sawgrass when he grabbed the lead late in round three. He started the final round a few shots behind, but ended up shooting a 78 and falling into a T29. The youngster will use that as a learning experience, and you can certainly see his potential. Ghim ranks 25th this season in SG: Approach, 29th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 18th in scrambling. He has already racked up six top-25s this season.
Jhonattan Vegas ($9,200)
Vegas got off to a tough start to the season, but has now made the cut in four of his last five starts. That includes a runner-up finish a couple weeks ago at the Puerto Rico Open. Vegas is a terrific driver of the ball and currently ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee on Tour. PGA National has been one of his better tracks throughout his career, going 7-for-8 with three top-20 finishes, including a T4 back in 2017.
Zach Johnson ($8,800)
He might be 45 years old, but Johnson is still playing some really solid golf. He has made the cut in all 11 of his starts this season with four top-25's. He currently ranks 11th in SG: Putting, 54th in SG: Total, 33rd in GIR percentage, 34th in scoring average, and 25th in sand save percentage. Johnson has always played well when conditions are sub-optimal like they will this week.
James Hahn ($8,700)
After struggling mightily the last couple seasons, Hahn is starting to get things back on track. He has gone 9-for-12 this season with five top-15 finishes. He has been strong all the way through the bag, ranking top-60 this season in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, proximity to the hole, and scrambling. You won't find many other options down this far that are that balanced in all areas of the game.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The field this week is certainly quite a bit shallower than THE PLAYERS Championship last week, which is the best field in all of golf. That has resulted in some players seeing their salary increase nearly $2,000 in just a week's time. As touched on before, ball-striking will be the name of the game this week as it always has at PGA National. The key this week will be to find players who rank high in both a number of the ball striking stats, as well as some of the short game stats. This is one of the few regular PGA Tour events left where par is actually a good score on every hole. It will be less about conversions with the putter and more about keeping yourself out of trouble and getting the ball up and down when you do miss greens. A little course history always helps, especially considering the conditions seem to be about the same here every year.
