This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Course: Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course (7,352 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,700,000
Winner: $1,566,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Florida Swing concludes this week in Palm Harbor for the 24th playing of the Valspar Championship. Unlike the first three courses at PGA National, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, the Copperhead Course at the Ininsbrook resort features a lot less water hazards and a lot more elevation, something typically unusual for Florida courses. Over the years it has become a favorite among the players and many rank it as their top course the Tour goes to in the state.
That said, it should come as no surprise that this is one of the better non-Signature Event fields of the season. There are 12 of the top 30 players in the OWGR teeing it up, led by world No. 3 Xander Schauffele, who is still looking to find his game after finishing T40 an 72nd the last two weeks in his return from a rib injury. Tommy Fleetwood, who is still looking for that elusive first PGA Tour win, comes into the week as the betting favorite at +1100 after a string of strong finishes. Justin Thomas tied the TPC Sawgrass record last week at THE PLAYERS Championship with a 10-under 62 in the second round, and will be looking for his first PGA Tour win since 2022 at the Valspar Championship. Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth and Luke Clanton highlight some of the other notables in this quality field.
With THE PLAYERS Championship now in the review mirror, all of these players have their focused shift to The Masters in a few weeks time. Players on the top-50 bubble of the OWGR will be looking for some good finishes in this three-week stretch to lock up a spot at Augusta. The winner this week -- if not otherwise exempt -- will earn a spot into The Masters as well.
The Copperhead Course has always played pretty stingy over the years. Wind is typically always a factor and you get some tricky gusts through all these heavy tree-lined holes. Players will get an early test on that this week with the highest of the winds set to hit on Thursday. It could also bring some afternoon showers as well. That will lead into a bit of a chilly second round before the winds die down and the heat picks up on the weekend. I'd expect a winning score in the 10-to-13-under range again and a close battle to the finish. 12 of the last 15 tournaments here have been decided by one stroke or gone to a playoff.
Recent Champions
2024 - Peter Malnati (-12)
2023 - Taylor Moore (-10)
2022 - Sam Burns (-17)
2021 - Sam Burns (-17)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Paul Casey (-8)
2018 - Paul Casey (-10)
2017 - Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016 - Charl Schwartzel (-7)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (-10)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance/Proximity 100-125 yards
Champion's Profile
The Copperhead Course is a shot-makers venue. You have to be able to work the ball in both directions both off the tees and into the greens. These are some of the narrowest fairways on Tour and it isn't a course where a player will use driver a whole lot. While there isn't a ton of water fear factor, there's enough trees and the rough is long enough where players will still have their work cut out to try to make par if they miss the short grass. Certainly will want to look at players ranking high in driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
These greens are slightly below average in size for PGA Tour standards and feature some of the trickiest hole locations. Three-putts will not be hard to find if players miss some of the ridges on these greens with their approaches. Because of the difficulty to find the fairways and the gusty winds that will be present, scrambling will be worth a lot this week. The overseed makes some of the short grass chips easier, but getting hung up in the long grass will not be a lot of fun to try to get the ball close around these greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,800)
Fleetwood continues to crush it on approach. He has now gained on approach in his last 14 tournaments, 10 of those by gaining over 1.15 strokes per round. It should come as little surprise that he has a worst finish of T22 during that stretch with six top-six finishes. Fleetwood is excellent at shaping the ball any way he needs to and the short game has been quite reliable as well over the last several months. He has finished T16 and T3 in two previous appearances here.
Sepp Straka ($11,600)
Straka is another player whose ball striking has been amazing for a long time. He ranks 11th in driving accuracy, sixth in SG: Approach, fifth in GIR percentage and third in proximity this season. Straka also finds himself inside the top-20 on Tour in birdie average, bogey avoidance, par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring. He doesn't have a great record in only two attempts at Innisbrook, but he is a far better player right now and he did gained over 1.1 strokes per round on the greens.
Corey Conners ($10,900)
After finishing T5 at The Sentry to make it three straight top-seven finishes, Conners went through a bit of a funk on the West Coast going MC-T65-T74. Safe to say he has broken his way out of that funk going T24-3rd-T6 in his last three starts. Conners gained over 0.8 strokes per round on the greens in each of those tournaments, which as we know is big given how well he strikes the ball. Conners accuracy off the tee and into the greens will be a big key this week, and also why he has finished top-25 in every previous start here.
The Middle Tier
Jake Knapp ($9,900)
In his short time as a pro the one thing you could say about Knapp was that he was consistently inconsistent. He has turned that around in a big way making his last seven cuts and finishing top-25 in his last four starts. We think of Knapp as more of a bomber, but he's done quite well on some of these shorter golf courses as well where its more about positioning. Knapp is also up to 16th on the season in SG: Putting after leading the field a week ago at TPC Sawgrass.
Lucas Glover ($9,800)
Even at age 45, Glover is splitting fairways and flagging approach shots like he has done for the vast majority of his career. Glover ranks fourth on Tour in driving accuracy and sixth in proximity to the hole. He also continues a strong trend on the greens at 18th in putts per GIR. Glover has all kinds of momentum after his second T3 finish in a big event this season heading to Innisbrook where he has as much experience as anyone, including an 11th place result last year.
Ryan Gerard ($9,000)
Gerard's game has impressed in his return to the PGA Tour in 2025. His only missed cut in seven starts was in Puerto Rico. The 25-year-old has gained strokes on approach in all of his measured starts, in all but one with the putter and in his last four off the tee. There's a lot of encouraging things there for a player that ranks top-50 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, scrambling and SG: Putting this season. Gerard has an excellent chance for his first top-10 of 2025 on this course.
The Long Shots
Rico Hoey ($8,600)
Hoey is a ball-striking machine at a really good value this week. He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and ranks 27th in SG: Approach, sixth in GIR percentage and second in proximity from 100-125 yards. All he needs is to find some momentum with the putter, which is what he did last year when he gained on the greens in 9-of-12 starts and piled up four top-10s and seven top-25s during that stretch. Hoey also gained with the putter last year at Innisbrook.
Danny Walker ($8,300)
Walker was the last man into the field at THE PLAYERS and took advantage of it scoring a T6 finish. It was his second top-15 in his last three starts after a T13 in Mexico. Walker was second in the field at TPC Sawgrass in SG: Off-the-Tee and ranks sixth in that category on the season. He is also 12th in SG: Around-the-Green and eighth in birdie average this year. Walker is a strong option on a part of the board where players in form start to get thin.
Greyson Sigg ($8,200)
Sigg was one of the best players in the fall when he scored four top-25s in a five-start span. 2025 has had some more struggles, but he does still have a pair of top-20s and has made the cut in four of his last five starts. Sigg has gained on approach in six straight events and ranks 26th in that category on the season. He also is 33rd in scrambling, and that's with a bad showing in that department at TPC Sawgrass. Sigg has never missed a cut in three starts at Innisbrook.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
After a couple weeks where we had pretty viable options in the low $8K and $7K range, the Valspar Championship does feel a bit more top heavy. There's a lot of great ball strikers up at the top who should be able to capitalize on the challenges of this course. I'm still out on Schauffele -- especially being the top option at $12,000 -- until we see some performance. He really struggled with the ball striking at TPC Sawgrass. Burns ($11,400) is a two-time winner here, but the iron play is not in a good enough state to be able to contend. Will Zalatoris ($10,800), Alex Smalley ($10,400) and Keith Mitchell ($9,600) are a couple more options near the top not mentioned above who I think could have a strong showing.
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