This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Sentry
Course: The Plantation Course at Kapalua (7,596 yards, par 73)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
What better way to get the new year started than with a stacked field at one of the most unique courses in the world. The Plantation Course at Kapalua will host what used to be known as the Tournament of Champions for the 26th straight year. It is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour and features the largest greens and elevation changes players will face all year. With the PGA Tour's change back to the calendar schedule, The Sentry will officially be the first event of the FedExCup season for the first time since 2013.
The 59 players in the field this week mark a new record high for this event. That is because not only can you earn a spot with a victory from the previous year, the Top 50 in the previous season's FedExCup standings are automatically exempt into all eight of the Signature Events in 2024 beginning with The Sentry. The Signature Events are key not only because they carry a $20 million purse, they also now pay a record 700 FedExCup points to the winner. With the elimination of the wraparound season, that means FedExCup points will be at a premium with 7-8 less tournaments available to crack the Top 70 and make the FedExCup Playoffs starting in mid-August.
Viktor Hovland comes into the week looking for his third straight win in an official PGA Tour event after closing last season with victories at the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship on his way to the 2022-23 FedExCup title. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be coming in off a victory at the Hero World Challenge a month ago and looking to notch his first official PGA Tour victory since THE PLAYERS Championship last March. Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth are all past champion's of this event hoping to get their season's off to a strong start. Defending champion Jon Rahm will not be able to defend his title after signing with LIV Golf. It will be the second straight time the defending champion will not compete at The Sentry after Cameron Smith broke the PGA Tour score-to-par record of 34-under on his way to winning in 2022 and then signed with LIV Golf later that year. Rory McIlroy is the only eligible player electing to skip The Sentry this year. The Northern Irishman will begin 2024 as he normally does in Dubai on the DP World Tour.
When the wind isn't howling, The Plantation Course traditionally plays as the easiest course on the PGA Tour. Last year's scoring average of 68.92 on this par 73 comprised of four par 5s and three par 3s set a record for the event. This year has the potential for the course to show a little more teeth with wind gusts over 20 mph expected during the first three rounds. The wind is expected to really die down for the final round, which could create some excitement with players making a late move and potentially challenging the course record of 12-under 61 that was set three different times in 2022. Daytime temperatures should extend to nearly 80 degrees during the tournament with no precipitation expected. Man that sounds nice right about now.
Recent Champions
2023 - Jon Rahm (-27)
2022 - Cameron Smith (-34)
2021 - Harris English (-25)
2020 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2019 - Xander Schauffele (-23)
2018 - Dustin Johnson (-24)
2017 - Justin Thomas (-22)
2016 - Jordan Spieth (-30)
2015 - Patrick Reed (-21)
2014 - Zach Johnson (-19)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting
- Birdie Average
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
The Plantation Course is a second-shot golf course. The fairways are extremely wide and because of all the slopes, a lot of tee shots tend to collect in the same areas. This is why over the years we have seen both short and long hitters have success at Kapalua. From there a lot of times it tends to become a wedge and putting contest. Very rarely on par 4s will players be hitting that long of a club into these massive greens. Because of all the uneven lies, elevation changes and wind gusts, creativity is needed to have success.
It may seem counter intuitive to focus on short game considering the size of these greens, but it actually goes a long ways. There's a lot of cases where you are trying to squeeze it up close to a green on a par 5 or short par 4. Dealing with tricky bermudagrass is not always easy, especially for the first event of the new season with a lot of players still trying to work their way into shape. If you are sharp around the putting surfaces this week that will go a long way to challenging for a victory.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($12,400)
Scheffler is more than worth the hefty price tag this week. He is the best ball-striker in the world and has an elite short game. Putting is obviously the only question mark with Scheffler, but he has put in a lot of offseason work with new putting coach Phil Kenyon and it really seems to have made a difference with his showings at the Ryder Cup and Hero World Challenge. Scheffler has gained strokes on the greens in both his previous attempts at Kapalua.
Xander Schauffele ($11,600)
Schauffele is someone who has no issues of late with his putting as he ranked fifth in SG: Putting last season. On top of that the San Diego State product was also third in SG: Approach. Schauffele thrives in no-cut events like The Sentry and outside of his first start at Kapalua and last year when he had to withdraw due to injury, he has a scoring average of 68.0 with a trio of top-five finishes, including a win in 2019.
Max Homa ($11,300)
Homa comes into the week having finished T21-or-better in his last nine worldwide starts, including a November victory at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Homa is a birdie machine and ranked top-15 last season in both ball-striking and putting. The California native makes it a habit of starting seasons off strong and last year at Kapalua he finished T3 while ranking fourth in SG: Putting and T3 in GIR percentage.
The Middle Tier
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200)
Fleetwood played tremendous golf down the stretch last year, collecting nine top-12 finishes over his final 12 PGA Tour starts. A peek at his strokes gained numbers tell you have strong his game was across the board, as he ranked 33rd or better in every category. This will be Fleetwood's first attempt at Kapalua as he looks for that long-awaited first PGA Tour win. With his creative shot making and short game I expect a big week from the Englishman.
Brian Harman ($9,300)
While it certainly doesn't seem like a Harman type of course, his short game and putting ability make him a very interesting option at this price. Harman notched a third place finish here in 2018 and the more the conditions become a factor the more confident I am that Harman will be in the mix. The Champion Golfer of the Year from 2023 ranked 17th in proximity to the hole and first in scrambling last season.
Eric Cole ($9,200)
Cole made 15 straight cuts to close 2023 including scoring top-5 finishes in four of his last five starts. Driving is the only thing that gets him in trouble but this week considering the width of the fairways it should be a moot point. Last season the 35-year-old rookie ranked 19th in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in putts per hole and sixth in birdie average. Don't hesitate about sticking on the Cole train at Kapalua.
The Long Shots
J.T. Poston ($8,300)
Poston is another player who really got hot towards the tail end of 2023. He notched five top-seven finishes and seven top-25s over his last nine starts. Poston will be able to get away with some of the driving issues he has at Kapalua and be able to take advantage of his strengths with the approach play and putting. Over that hot stretch to close 2023 Poston gained 3.5 strokes or more on approach five times and gained 4.3 strokes or more with the putter six times.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,800)
I've been high on Bhatia for some time now and I could see the 21-year-old coming out and making a statement early in 2024. Bhatia picked up his first PGA Tour last summer at the Barracuda Championship and played well in the fall making six straight cuts to close 2023. The ball-striking is clearly there as he ranked 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in total driving, 33rd in SG: Approach and 11th in GIR percentage. If Bhatia can make a few more putts I have no doubt we'll see him on plenty of leaderboards this season.
Adam Schenk ($7,100)
The nature of this event lends itself to taking some chances and Schenk is someone that I wouldn't mind throwing into some lineups as nearly a min. price player. Schenk was not all that consistent last season, but had a habit of racking up a lot of high finishes because of how hot he can get with the putter. He notched seven top-10s last year, including a pair of runner-ups. With no cut to worry about, Schenk has the firepower to pile up a bunch of birdies and eagles.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Most weeks FanDuel and DraftKings are typically pretty similar in ranking players by price, but it is quite a stark difference for The Sentry. If you play both of them be sure to consider the differences, but I do believe this particular week FanDuel is far more accurate with how they have ranked players. This entire field is really close and with a lot of tee shots accumulating in similar areas, approach play and putting are going to be the main separators for this field. Players who have struggled lately in one of those areas like Spieth ($10,800), Tony Finau ($10,500) and Sam Burns ($9,900) would be players I would look to avoid. That being said, risks will have to be taken to cash during a tournament like this. The strategy for a full-field event next week at the Sony Open will certainly look a lot different.
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