This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass (7,275 yards, par 72)
Purse: $25,000,000
Winner: $4,500,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be trying to go back-to-back in more ways than one when the elite field of 144 ascend on TPC Sawgrass this week for the 50th anniversary of THE PLAYERS Championship. After a season full of long-shot winners, Scheffler made a statement on the weekend last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to claim his seventh PGA Tour title. It was also his first since running away from the field by five strokes last year at THE PLAYERS Championship. Scheffler will be looking to become the first player to win this event back-to-back and become only the sixth man to win at TPC Sawgrass more than once.
The first addition of The Players dates back to 1974 when Jack Nicklaus won over J.C. Snead by two strokes at Atlanta Country Club. Nicklaus won three of the first five before THE PLAYERS would find a permanent home at TPC Sawgrass in 1982. That event was won by Jerry Pate and since has become one of the most iconic and intimidating courses in all of professional golf. You can find trouble and make a big number at virtually any hole out there, but the one that the players fear most when they tee off is the notorious par 3 17th. It's a short hole with a large green, but the target looks a lot smaller when it is completely surrounded by water. It is always a topic of conversation and being so late in the round presents a ton of drama down the stretch. The 17th has been the difference in so many players winning or losing THE PLAYERS Championship over the years.
The Players Championship has long been tabbed as the "fifth major" and "the strongest field in golf." Those talks have seemed to die down with LIV Golf coming to the forefront. Since The Players Championship is hosted by the PGA Tour, all LIV players will not be allowed to play in the event, which does make it a little harder to call it the strongest field in golf given all the major winners who have defected. Nevertheless, outside of the majors if you are a PGA Tour player this is the singular event you want to win the most due to the prestige and history, as well as having the largest purse in golf at $25 million. The winner will also receive 80 OWGR points, a five-year PGA Tour exemption and a three-year exemption into all four of the major champions.
There was some thought that Tiger Woods may elect to make his first PLAYERS Championship appearance since 2019 as he said back in December that he would love to play an event a month in the 2024 season. Woods did not tee it up in January before returning to competition at his Genesis Invitational that he would have to WD from due to flu-like symptoms. Woods did play in the Seminole pro-member last week, but will not play in the 50th PLAYERS Championship. It is unlikely he makes another start before the Masters next month.
It's been a tough weather year so far for the PGA Tour. Orlando last week treated us quite well and it's looking like a pretty encouraging forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach this week after some poor weather weeks since this tournament returned to March in 2019. Day-time highs should extend around the low 80s each of the four days with pretty steady winds in the 10-15 mph range. The biggest gusts should come for the final round, which could certainly make things interesting coming down the stretch. The highest chance of some storms will be Friday afternoon, but hopefully we are able to sneak by and allow the course to continue to firm up throughout the tournament. 15-under-par has been the average winning score since THE PLAYERS moved back to March. Scheffler was the only player to win by more than one stroke in that stretch. I'd expect scoring to be around that range once again unless Scheffler plays like he did last Sunday at Bay Hill.
Recent Champions
2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022 - Cameron Smith (-13)
2021 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018 - Webb Simpson (-18)
2017 - Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016 - Jason Day (-15)
2015 - Rickie Fowler (-12)
2014 - Martin Kaymer (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green
Champion's Profile
If you look through many of the top players who have teed it up at TPC Sawgrass through the years, you will find that many of them have pretty inconsistent results. That is because this course punishes misses as much as any on the PGA Tour. It can be extremely volatile with big numbers not that hard to make, but also giving you lots of chances for birdies and eagles if you're really in control of your ball. This cut is arguably the hardest to make in golf and we will see plenty of big names being sent packing after Friday.
The keys to look for this week when trying to make a lineup are players who excel at target golf and positioning. It's not an overly long track and on a lot of holes it will force driver out of your hands. We want to tread carefully with players who have a tendency to get a little loose off the tee and who struggle with control on approach. If you are keeping it on the fairway and greens, you can't be taking penalty strokes.
The short game is another critical area here. There are a ton of runoff areas around these greens slightly below PGA Tour average in size. Combine that with some tricky bunkers and there is certainly a chance to separate from the pack in the short game department. Si Woo Kim had won of the most impressive short game displays we've seen in his win in 2017 and the last three winners of Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith and Scheffler all are annually among the best is that area.
Pete Dye is one of the best course designers of all time and his tracks feature so much character and risk/reward options. Harbour Town and TPC River Highlands are two of his other designs that I think call on a lot of the same traits at TPC Sawgrass and could be something to factor in when selecting players for your rosters this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)
FanDuel's pricing tends to be a little more bunched than DraftKings to begin with, but consider that he is only $100 more than the second priced golfer (McIlroy at $11,900) on FD, but $1,200 more than the second priced golfer on DK. You can get Scheffler into lineups using a ton of different builds on FD and at that price he is absolutely worth it despite the high projected ownership. If he putts like he did on the weekend at Bay Hill, this thing might be over quickly.
Justin Thomas ($11,100)
Among the games elite, Thomas has one of the most consistent records around TPC Sawgrass having made the cut in all eight appearances with a win in 2021 among three top-11 finishes. Much was made of Thomas' poor 2023 season, but he has picked things up since the start of the FedExCup Fall, racking up eight top-12 finishes in his last nine starts. He features as good of a combination of iron play and short-game wizardry as you will find on Tour.
Will Zalatoris ($10,700)
Zalatoris doesn't have the high finishes around Sawgrass that some other top players do, but he has only played here three times and scored two top-30 finishes. He looks like the player we knew before the back injury in late 2022 that was always in contention in big events. Zalatoris has also made clear strides with this new putter and has gained strokes on the greens in each of his last four events. It feels like stealing being able to get Zalatoris in the $10K range coming off back-to-back top-four finishes in Signature Events.
The Middle Tier
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400)
Matsuyama has a very strong career record at TPC Sawgrass, with six top-25 finishes in eight starts. He picked up his best career finish last year when he rolled to a solo fifth. It's really no surprise he has had success here given his ball-striking pedigree, particularly with the irons. What continues to fly under the radar, however, is how good Matsuyama is around the greens. He is currently fourth this season in SG: Around and has finished outside the top-60 in that category just once in his career.
Russell Henley ($9,500)
How bout this, since last year's PLAYERS Championship Henley has racked up 16 top-25 finishes and only two missed cuts. That includes a strong T4 last week at Bay Hill. Henley keeps the ball in the fairway, is an outstanding iron player, very tidy around the greens and has ranked third and second for the week in SG: Putting over the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Henley has finished top-20 the last two years at TPC Sawgrass.
Tom Hoge ($9,100)
Hoge continued his absolute laser show with the irons at Bay Hill by leading the field in SG: Approach at 8.16 strokes gained for the week. He now leads the PGA Tour for the season in that department over Scheffler and is also first in proximity to the hole. Hoge finished top-20 in five of his last seven starts and gained strokes on the green in six times during that stretch. He finished T3 last season at TPC Sawgrass after recovering from a 78 in the first round.
The Long Shots
Doug Ghim ($8,400)
Ghim is playing some of the best golf of his career. After missing cuts in six of seven starts, he has put together a streak of four straight top-16 finishes. He now ranks third (!) in SG: Total this season and you can get him in the mid-$8K range to round out your squad. Ghim is always playing from the fairway, has great control with his irons, continues to feature a solid short game and has made big strides with his putting. He finished T6 at TPC Sawgrass in 2022.
Erik van Rooyen ($8,400)
van Rooyen just continues to roll after his 11th top-25 in his last 15 starts worldwide. His iron play has been stellar having lost strokes on approach in just one of those tournaments. Van Rooyen has played The Players just once in his career but it was a T13 finish where he gained over 11 strokes to the field on approach. The putter is coming along for the ride this season for the South African who ranks 30th in SG: Putting and seventh in putts per GIR.
Andrew Novak ($7,900)
Another player who has turned it on after a string of poor finishes is Novak. He has finished top-10 in three straight events. The 28-year-old now ranks fourth in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Around-the-Green, 20th in GIR percentage and eighth in scrambling this season. Novak eats up the par 5s and perhaps the biggest reason I like him this week is the chip on the shoulder he has after being left out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which only had 69 players in the field.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
A field that is this deep from top to bottom gives DFS players a ton of different options when trying to build lineups. The $9K range is actually my favorite range on the slate. I think you can build the meat of your lineup here and then take your pick of your favorite $11K golfer. Shane Lowry ($9,900), Adam Scott ($9,800), Eric Cole ($9,300) and Keith Mitchell ($9,200) are some others to consider in a stacked $9K range. If you're looking for more of a stars and scrubs build, Davis Thompson ($8,200), Mark Hubbard ($8,000), Nico Echavarria ($7,300) and Justin Lower ($7,300) make for great plays further down the pricing sheet. TPC Sawgrass is such a volatile course, but the more players we can get that consistently keep it on the short grass the better chance we have of going 6-for-6, which as I mentioned earlier is extremely difficult to do this week.
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