This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
BMW Championship
Course: Olympia Fields Country Club North Course (7,366 yards, par 70)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 2,000 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Lucas Glover is officially the hottest golfer on the planet after winning the playoff opener at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which came a week after he won the Wyndham Championship to make the Top 70 that reach golf's postseason. Glover his now up to fourth in the FedExCup standings thanks to quadruple points in Memphis and has put himself in position to potentially make the U.S. Ryder Cup team next month for the first time at age 43.
In recent years the BMW Championship has been a 70-man field as the penultimate playoff event, but now it will only be the Top 50 players in the FedExCup standings that tee it up at Olympia Fields. Those 50 players have also each guaranteed themselves a spot in all eight signature events next season with Patrick Rodgers holding onto the last spot. Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Hardy, and Taylor Montgomery just missed the cut, but will all have a chance to make the two designated events on the West coast at Pebble Beach and Riviera if they can stay inside the Top 10 in the standings after the FedExCup Fall. All players who made the BMW Championship will not be eligible to receive FedExCup points in the seven fall events, although they can still play and earn OWGR points.
After 2021 at Caves Valley and then 2022 at Wilmington CC, both won by Patrick Cantlay, the BMW Championship returns to the state of Illinois where the majority of tournaments have been hosted. Olympia Fields has hosted two U.S. Open's, two PGA Championships, a U.S. Senior Open, a U.S. Amateur, and a Women's PGA Championship. It also hosted the BMW Championship in 2020 won by Jon Rahm in a thrilling playoff over Dustin Johnson. Rahm now returns three years later with the top spot in the FedExCup standings and he will hope to hang onto it going to the TOUR Championship, which has a starting strokes format based on your FedExCup position. The No. 1 seed will start the tournament at 10-under-par and two clear of the No. 2 seed at eight-under-par. No. 3 will start at seven-under, No. 4 at six-under, and No. 5 at five-under before positions 6-10 will be grouped at four-under, 11-15 at three-under, 16-20 at two-under, 21-25 at one-under, and 26-30 at even-par. Making it inside the Top 30 after the BMW Championship will also give you exemptions into the Masters, U.S. Open, and Open Championship next season, as well as having a shot at the $18 million top prize at East Lake. A last place finish at the TOUR Championship also gets you $500,000, which is double the FedExCup bonus money that No. 31 on the list will receive.
All to say there is still a lot to play for this week at the BMW Championship. The last time it was held at Olympia Fields in 2020, the event played like a U.S. Open with the scoring average at 71.8 for this beefy par 70. The playoff between Rahm and Johnson was at just 4-under-par, and only five total players finished in red figures. Olympia Fields played very firm three years ago, which led to really difficult scoring conditions. That would have been the case again this year had it been played in June, but plenty of water has fallen recently to take some of the bite out of the course and players should have an easier time controlling their balls into the greens. Thursday should be the trickiest weather day with some potential showers early and wind gusts to 30 miles per hour. After that it should be clear sailing for the final three rounds with much more manageable wind conditions.
Recent Champions
2022 - Patrick Cantlay -14 (Wilmington CC)'
2021 - Patrick Cantlay -27 (Caves Valley)
2020 - Jon Rahm -4 (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas -25 (Medinah CC)
2018 - Keegan Bradley -20 (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman -23 (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson -23 (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day -22 (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel -14 (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson -16 (Conway Farms)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- Scrambling
- Par-4 Scoring Average
Champion's Profile
Olympia Fields is a proper major championship course. It is long with thick rough and has fast, sloping greens. I see a lot of similarities to Winged Foot and Oak Hill, so those would probably be the best comparison courses of venues over the last few years. The fairways at Olympia Fields are the second-narrowest on the PGA Tour and the rough is some of the nastiest out there exceeding four inches. It's one of those situations where the fairways are going to be tough to hit for everyone so it is better to have a player who can really get it out there and have a 9-iron out of the rough versus a 6-iron. The five players that finished under-par here back in 2020 all could create a ton of ball speed.
After two straight weeks of bermuda greens, the players will return to bentgrass greens that average just over 5,200 square feet, which is just a little below average for PGA Tour standards. The greens will play even smaller if it can dry out over the weekend and get some fire like we saw in 2020. Most of the putting surfaces are elevated, so getting balls to stop is going to be the biggest issue, especially playing from the rough. That being said, there is a lot of long rough around the greens like traditional U.S. Open's, so scrambling will be a challenge for everyone even though the balls won't run too far away from the hole. The keys are just going to be managing your misses, so you have green to work with when you miss a green in regulation.
In 2020 not a single par-4 at Olympia Fields played under-par, and with only two par-5's, par-4 scoring is certainly something I will have an eye on this week. The four par-3's played to an average of 3.12 in 2020 highlighted by the 8th which can stretch to 251 yards. Olympia Fields really is a complete test for the players and even with the early week rain, double-digits under-par would be a hell of a score over 72 holes.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,300)
Here we go again. It is the playoffs and McIlroy is trending toward his record-extending fourth FedEx Cup. He finished T9 or better in his last eight starts, including a T3 last week in Memphis where he ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in SG: Approach. McIlroy finished top-12 in all of the highly correlated courses, with a T12 at Olympia Fields in 2020, a T8 at Winged Foot in 2020 and T7 at Oak Hill this year. He's top-4 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green and par-4 scoring average this season.
Jon Rahm ($11,900)
Rahm is an easy buy this week, as he is only the fourth highest-priced player on the board. As touched on earlier he won last time at Olympia Fields in a playoff after a 6-under 64 on Sunday. The numbers across the board this season are just fantastic, as he ranks 11th in total driving, third in SG: Approach, third in GIR percentage, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and 24th in SG: Putting. Rahm is also top-4 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring this season.
Viktor Hovland ($11,600)
This type of test just sets up so well for Hovland's game. He finished T13 at Winged Foot in 2020 before he really took off, T2 at Oak Hill in May and won at Muirfield Village, which also presents a lot of similar challenges as Olympia Fields. The 25-year-old is ninth in par-4 scoring, eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in total driving, 13th in SG: Approach and 12th in proximity this season. Hovland will end the season without missing a single cut and did not finish worse than T29 in his last eight starts.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300)
Matsuyama has always been a fan of these U.S. Open-type courses. He has finished T35 or better in all but one of his 11 career U.S. Open starts and has recorded a trio of top-10 finishes in those events. Matsuyama was also T3 at Olympia Fields in 2020 and T17 at Winged Foot a few weeks later -- even with a final-round 78. The 31-year-old has grinded to make it this far in the playoffs and recorded just two finishes outside the top 32 in his last 14 starts. Matsuyama's iron play has been elite this season and the short game is one of the most underrated in the sport.
Longer Shots with Value
Cameron Young ($9,800)
To get one of the best drivers in the world at under five digits is a bargain. Young ranked second on Tour last season in SG: Off-the-Tee and is 10th this season. The bomb and gouge approach will certainly work at Olympia Fields. His iron play is also notable, as he ranks top-11 on Tour in proximity from the 125-150 yard range, 150-175 and 175-200, which is where a bunch of approach shots will be coming from this week. Young gets a boost in DFS because he is fourth in birdie average as well.
Cam Davis ($9,300)
Davis has long been an inconsistent, but extremely high-upside player. He has 11 missed cuts this season but also six top-10s and nine top-20s. Davis has entered the most consistent stretch of his career, going T17-T10-T7-T6 in his last four starts in the U.S. The Aussie is a perfect fit for Olympia Fields as a bomber who is fifth in proximity to the hole when he does find the fairway. Davis has also improved significantly in the short game department, ranking fourth and seventh in SG: Around-the-Green in his last two starts. He was also T4 at Oak Hill in May.
Lee Hodges ($8,300)
Hodges was dominant last time we were on bentrgrass greens at the 3M Open, winning by seven shots and ranking first in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Putting. He is similar to Davis in the fact that he will miss a lot of cuts but also can rack up a lot of high finishes. Hodges finished T31 or better in six of his last nine starts overall. Really the only concern of late has been the short game, but long rough around the greens should lead to struggles for everyone.
Adam Svensson ($7,600)
Svensson struggled from the spring into June, but since the start of July he has been excellent. He has gained 20.33 strokes from tee to green over his last four starts, which breaks down to 1.27 per round -- a mark that would put him top-10 in that category on the season. When Svensson was struggling earlier this year the ball striking was not there like it is now, but he is also having a career-best putting season. Put both of those together at Olympia Fields and Svensson will have a great chance to jump from 39th in the standings into the TOUR Championship.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is not the easiest week to make lineups. The board is extremely bunched at $9K and up, but it really thins out towards the bottom. Usually we don't typically worry about high ownership at the bottom, but with only 50 players in the field, and just 18 below $9K, there's going to be a few popular options on the low end of the board. I also don't think we will see a lot of super balanced lineups because Olympia Fields is a major championship level course and demands excellence to score. It would be quite hard to limit yourself to just one player in the $11K range and up with so many talented top dogs. Last thing to remember is don't fall into the trap of seeing extremely narrow fairways and avoiding some of the big hitters that spray it all over. Players averaged just 6.74 fairways hit per round in 2020 here, so everyone will miss the short grass. I think by taking a bunch of bombers you can really raise your overall floor for your lineup this week.
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