This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Byron Nelson
Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,414 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,500,000
Winner: $1,710,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The AT&T Byron Nelson dates back to 1944 when the legend Byron Nelson himself won by 10 strokes. The event has moved over the greater Dallas area over the years and will be contested for the third straight year at TPC Craig Ranch. The first two editions have seen K.H. Lee prevail at 25-under and 26-under, respectively. Lee will look to become the first player since Steve Sticker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11 to win the same event three straight times. Tom Watson also did that at the Byron Nelson from 1978-80 and his four total victories are the most in event history.
This will once again act as the final tuneup for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Many of the top names are taking the week off after competing at the designated event last week in Charlotte, but there is still some names to keep an eye on. After skipping the Wells Fargo Championship, No. 2 ranked player Scottie Scheffler will return and seek his third win of the season at his hometown event. AT&T ambassador and Dallas native Jordan Spieth is the other Top 10 ranked player who was in the field, but withdrew on Monday due to "severe pain" in his left wrist. Spieth's status for the PGA Championship is definitely in doubt at this point. Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day and Adam Scott round out some of the other notables playing this week at TPC Craig Ranch. 2018 Byron Nelson champion Aaron Wise will be making his return to action following a six-week break from golf to address his mental health.
There's a possibility this ends up being a long week for the competitors, which obviously won't be ideal for those making the trip to Rochester for the PGA Championship next week. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for each of the four rounds, which may lead to some delays. Even with some potentially gusty winds, with the course being this soft players are going to need to take it really low to contend at gettable Craig Ranch. Six-under and five-under have been the cutlines the last two years and a total of 20 players have shot at least 20-under over 72 holes during that time.
Recent Champions
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
2013 - Sangmoon Bae (TPC Four Seasons)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting
- Birdie Average
- GIR Percentage
Champion's Profile
TPC Craig Ranch is as gettable of a PGA Tour course as you're going to find. The big change this year is the reduction of the 12th hole from a par 5 to a par 4 which now tips at 493 yards. That likely will mean that Lee's tournament record score-to-par of 26-under is safe, but make not mistake about it there will be plenty of chances for players to pile up birdies and eagles at this par 71 tipping at just over 7,400 yards. The keys to contending in a shootout are pretty simple, hit greens and sink putts. Both SG: Approach and SG: Putting have been very correlated to success in two years at TPC Craig Ranch and I'm really trying to key in this week to finding players who hit their irons and putt well. There are a few hazards out there, but driving actually hasn't been super important with wide fairways and limited rough. Large, soft greens should keep the GIR percentage high and as a result I think you can get away with having a weak short game.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Tyrrell Hatton ($11,600)
There's an $800 difference from Scheffler to the No. 2 priced golfer in Hatton and I like the pivot here. Hatton is coming off a strong T3 showing at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in SG: Approach, and 27th in SG: Putting this season. There is really no weakness to Hatton's game and you can bet he is hungry to get back in the win column, the last of which was in Abu Dhabi in 2021.
K.H. Lee ($11,000)
People might get scared away by this price, but given the other names in the field I'm okay paying this much for a guy who clearly has TPC Craig Ranch figured out at a combined 51-under-par the last two years. Lee is coming off a good showing at Quail Hollow where he finished T8, his third top-25 finish in his last five starts. Lee ranks 27th in birdie average, 30th in GIR percentage, and 62nd in SG: Putting. He is another very complete player, gaining strokes across the board this season.
Adam Scott ($10,700)
Scott came into the Wells Fargo Championship making all of his cuts, but with a best finish of T21. He was finally able to put it all together and strike for a T5 finish. Scott gained nearly 10 strokes combined approaching and on the greens at Quail Hollow, something that is really encouraging going to Craig Ranch. The Aussie's iron play hasn't been all that consistent this season, but he's definitely shown the ability to pop here and there. Scott shot 16-under and finished T32 here last year.
Seamus Power ($10,500)
Power has been a little quiet after an eight-tournament top-25 streak that began with his win in Bermuda. That being said, he was able to finish T18 last week at Quail Hollow, where he had another really nice putting week. Power has been able to pile up birdies this season due to his elite feel on the greens. He ranks 26th in SG: Putting and 12th in putts per GIR. The Irishman certainly enjoys Craig Ranch, finishing T9 and T17 the last two years and totaling 36-under-par.
Longer Shots with Value
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,700)
Bezuidenhout is coming off a stretch of a stretch of three PGA Tour stroke play events in which he has gained at least 3.4 strokes approaching the green and 2.4 strokes with the putter. That is exactly the type of game we are looking for this week at Craig Ranch. Bezuidenhout's finishes over that stretch were T13-T28-T19, and while solid could have been a lot better had he not lost so many strokes around the greens, something unlikely to happen this week with large, soft greens.
Michael Kim ($9,100)
Kim has really started to hit on something after beginning the season with five straight missed cuts. He has now made the cut in nine of his last ten starts and piled up six top-30 finishes over that stretch. That also includes a solo seventh last week at Quail Hollow. Over these last few months it has been Kim's iron play and putting that has done most of the damage and been the reason he has piled up the birdies. Another easy course like Craig Ranch should be in his wheelhouse.
Eric Cole ($9,000)
Cole is another player who started the season with a long missed-cut streak, but has found his game over the last few months. Cole has a T15, playoff loss, and T5 since the start of February, and his two specialties are iron play and putting. The 34-year-old ranks 53rd in SG: Approach, 51st in proximity to the hole, 22nd in SG: Putting, and third in putts per hole. Cole's driving struggles should be mitigated this week and there's a lot of upside here at this price.
Dylan Wu ($8,700)
If you've been rounding out your lineups over the last few months with Wu, chances are you've been doing pretty well in DFS. The 26-year-old just continues to rack up quality finishes and hasn't seen much of a pricing increase relative to the rest of the field. Wu has made the cut in 9-of-10 starts and logged six top-35 finishes in that stretch. He is now inside the Top 50 on the PGA Tour in SG: Total and has the 23rd-best birdie average.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
With pricing coming out before Spieth's ($12,100) withdrawal, there has been a big gap created between Scheffler and the rest of the field as mentioned. It will be interesting to see what type of ownership Scheffler draws, but I am most likely off of the Texan this week. Scheffler might be able to take apart this course with his ball-striking, but a lot of it is going to come down to putting and that's really the one area where World No. 2 has struggled in 2023.
There will be another low cut this week and plenty of players who felt they played pretty solid will be going home after two rounds. With so many DFS points available on the weekend due to the large number of birdies, every missed cut is going to hurt owners even more. Stick to the profile of players who are strong with their irons and putter. A good finish at Craig Ranch or in a recent shootout like the Mexico Open would make me feel even better.
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