This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 550 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After a week off for most of the top players in the world, the big dogs are set to do battle at one of the most iconic courses on the PGA Tour schedule. A whopping 44 of the top 50 golfers in the OWGR will tee it up at Bay Hill looking to claim that $3.6 million first-place prize. We are right in the middle of a stretch of four designated events in a five-week span that will conclude at THE PLAYERS Championship next week.
Arnold Palmer transcends golf and this is an event that many players always felt they had to play to pay their respect to "The King." We've seen a number of great finishes over the years in this tournament -- many coming in Tiger Woods' eight wins at Bay Hill. No other player has recorded more than two wins at this historic venue. Bay Hill is known as one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour schedule due to the thick rough, water hazards, and lightning quick greens. Four-under won this tournament back in 2020 and 5-under got the job done last year for Scottie Scheffler.
Speaking of the No. 2 player in the world, Scheffler will be hoping his second chance to defend a title goes as good as the first when he repeated at the WM Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. Red-hot Jon Rahm, who has made just one career start at Bay Hill, will be looking for his fourth victory already in 2023. World No. 3 Rory McIlroy will be hoping to get back on track at a venue that has been excellent to him after a couple of middling finishes in the last two designated events. Last week's winner at the Honda Classic, Chris Kirk, will be looking to stay hot in Florida and pick up his fourth top-3 finish already in 2023.
We could spend all day going over potential storylines this week for this elite field of 120 golfers. The top 65 and ties will make it to the weekend and earn a share of that impressive $20 million purse. While much of the country continues to battle the cold, players at Bay Hill will be grinding it out temperatures in the low-90's for much of the week. There's a chance we may get some showers on Saturday, but hopefully it stays dry and the course can really start to firm up on the weekend. Wind will be something the players have to battle all week, but particularly in the second round where sustained winds will be over 20 miles per hour and gusts may reach upwards of 40 mph. If that forecast holds true, another three-over cut like last year certainly is not out of the equation.
Recent Champions
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018 - Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017 - Marc Leishman (-11)
2016 - Jason Day (-17)
2015 - Matt Every (-19)
2014 - Matt Every (-13)
2013 - Tiger Woods (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
If you just look at the last five winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you'll notice all of them are really strong drivers of the ball. To me everything on this course starts from there. If you can hit it long and straight that just gives you a massive advantage. Trying to hit it on rock hard greens from four-inch rough is not really something you want to have to do too many times this week. With all the wind players will have to deal with, it is going to be a grinders type of week. Short game numbers are definitely something to tune into at Bay Hill, and also those who have played well in U.S. Open's. It takes the right mindset to be able to find success in this type of test.
If you been reading this column over the years, you'll know my love for approach play. It is where the most shots are gained and lost of any part of the game. The greatest iron player of all-time is Tiger and he's won here eight times. That should really tell you all you need to know about the importance of that this week. These Bermuda greens are typically some of the fastest on Tour, but they may have to be slowed down a bit early in the week to avoid any moving balls on Friday. Nevertheless, they are still going to be quick and the wind and grain will only make it harder to hole putts. If you hit the ball really well this week, you are going to be a factor on Sunday afternoon.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jon Rahm ($12,200)
It's not even worth your time to give you a whole bunch of stats on why Rahm is the best player in the world. It's not really close at the moment. This is one of the best six-month stretches of golf we've seen in a very long time. Rahm hasn't finished outside the top 15 in his last 13 starts worldwide. In that stretch he has five wins and four other top-5s. The hope is that because Rahm only has one start at Bay Hill some folks lean into course history and we get a bit of an ownership discount.
Will Zalatoris ($10,900)
If you start your lineup with Rahm, I think there's good reason to skip the $11K range completely and start with a guy like Zalatoris. The back issues seem to be behind the 26-year-old and he is coming off a great fourth place showing at Riviera where he gained 7.86 strokes ball-striking and another 4.8 in the short game department. Zalatoris has played the majors and tough courses as well as anyone over the last couple seasons and Bay Hill should fall right in that same category. Most people get scared off by the ugly looking putting stroke, but Zalatoris has gained on the greens in six of his last seven events.
Jason Day ($10,500)
The only thing missing from saying "Day is back" is a victory. He has already posted eight top-25 finishes this season, including three straight finishes inside the top 10. Day is a former winner at Bay Hill (2016) and has totaled five top-25 finishes in nine career starts on this track. He's got all the numbers you want this week, ranking 11th in total driving, 21st in SG: Approach, fourth in scrambling, 26th in SG: Putting and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,400)
Hatton might not strike you as someone who would thrive in a very difficult test given his attitude, but you can't argue with his record at Bay Hill. The Englishman has made the cut in all six tries with a win, a runner-up, and a fourth place under his belt. Hatton ranks 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee, fourth in total driving and 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. He has made the cut in 15 straight events worldwide and has eight top-15 finishes in that stretch.
Longer Shots with Value
Keith Mitchell ($9,700)
I noted how everything starts with the driver at Bay Hill and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone not named Rahm or McIlroy that has been better over the last few seasons in that department than Mitchell. The 31-year-old leads the Tour in total driving this season and is also fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee. Given that prowess, it is really no wonder why he has a couple of top-6 finishes here in four starts at Bay Hill.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,600)
Fleetwood loves this venue. Even when he played most of his golf in Europe, he always made it a point to play Bay Hill. In six starts he has five top-26 finishes, including a third place showing back in 2019. Fleetwood has been really strong over his last 36 rounds, gaining on average 1.52 shots per round during that span from Tee-to-Green. The Englishman enjoys when the conditions get difficult and he should thrive in the wind. Only Justin Thomas gains more strokes Around-the-Green on the PGA Tour this season.
Keegan Bradley ($9,500)
Sticking to the theme about loving Bay Hill, Bradley has made 10 straight cuts here with a total of four top-11 finishes in that stretch. That would include a T10 and T11 the last two years. Bradley is motivated to make it back on the Ryder Cup team this fall and has already notched a win, runner-up, and five top-25s in just eight starts this season. Bradley continues to strike the ball well this season per usual, and he ranks 71st in SG: Putting. That doesn't sound amazing, but it's easily his best mark since the anchoring ban went into affect .
Wyndham Clark ($8,900)
For the last couple years, Clark has been known as a guy that drives it really far and putts really well. His results have been a lot more consistent lately because he has figured out his iron play. Clark has made his last eight cuts, with four top-20 finishes in that stretch, and has gained a whopping 11.7 strokes approaching the green in his last three starts alone. Not much history to speak of at Bay Hill, but I definitely feel confident firing up Clark this week given his recent history.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
As you noticed with most of my top value plays, I absolutely love the $10K and $9K ranges this week. They are absolutely loaded with talent who fit the profile and have had a lot of success at Bay Hill in the past. You can easily put together a lineup with six golfers in those two ranges and it could pay off tremendously well. On the other hand, with only 120 players in the field, a smaller percentage of players are going to miss the cut this week. That could warrant a couple lineups using a "stars and scrubs" approach. If you take say three players in the $11K range that leaves you around $8,500 left per golfer for your final three. Taylor Pendrith ($8,400), Joseph Bramlett ($8,200), Ben Griffin ($8,200), Alex Smalley ($8,100) and Hayden Buckley ($7,700) are all options that fit my model that could fill out that type of lineup build.
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