This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
Purse: $12,000,000
Winner: $2,160,000 and 550 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Arnold Palmer Invitational week is always a special one on the PGA Tour. A top-tier group of golfers gathers to celebrate the life and memory of "The King," who was one of the most influential people in the history of sports. Bay Hill Club & Lodge was Mr. Palmer's baby and has been the host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979. It features a number of iconic holes such as the U-shaped par-5 6th hole and the par-4 finishing hole, which is one of the most intimidating second shots in golf. That 18th green has also been the site of a number of iconic moments authored by Tiger Woods during his record eight victories at the API.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second leg of the four-week Florida Swing and the second event with invitational status in the last three weeks. The field will be capped at 120, with the winner receiving a three-year exemption and 550 FedExCup points. Like the Genesis Invitational, the purse has been kicked up from $9.3 million to $12 million this year. Four of the top six in the OWGR will tee it up at Bay Hill this week. World No. 1 Jon Rahm will make his first start here, while Rory McIlroy looks for his second win on the season and second win at the API. Bryson DeChambeau was supposed to defend his title this week, but had to withdraw once again because of a nagging wrist injury. DeChambeau's win last year broke a streak of five consecutive international winners of the API. FedExCup leader Hideki Matsuyama will be looking for his third win of the season.
Bay Hill is one of the best tests of where a player's game is at on Tour. It has undergone some changes over the past few years, which has narrowed some of the fairways and seen the rough allowed to be grown up to nearly four inches. It's not uncommon to see a lot of gusty winds here, which makes navigating the numerous water hazards a real challenge. In 2020, when Tyrrell Hatton won at just 4-under-par, the field was blasted by very blustery conditions all week. The course should be a little more gettable this time around. Temperatures should extend into the mid-80's and winds should average between 10-15 miles per hour. Precipitation is not expected to fall during the tournament, but this is Florida so you can't rule it out. The players teeing it up this week are getting one heck of a final preparation before taking on TPC Sawgrass at THE PLAYERS Championship, where they will compete for a $20 million purse.
Recent Champions
2021 – Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019 – Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018 – Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)
2016 – Jason Day (-17)
2015 – Matt Every (-19)
2014 – Matt Every (-13)
2013 – Tiger Woods (-13)
2012 – Tiger Woods (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Tee-to-Green
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
Bay Hill is one of the flattest courses on Tour, but also one of the most dangerous. A double-bogey or other will not be in short supply given all the water hazards that come into play out there. The keys this week will be the par-5's and par-3's, but for different reasons. All four of the par-5's on the course can be reached by the big hitters. That will give those players much easier chances at birdies or possibly eagles than some of the shorter hitters. The par-3's on the other hand may be one of the hardest as a foursome anywhere on Tour. The quartet at Bay Hill average 217 yards in length from the tips and require a very precise long iron or hybrid shot to give yourself a realistic birdie chance. Look at ball-striking numbers first and foremost this week, but short game and putting can't be overlooked at Bay Hill. The GIR numbers this week will be lower than PGA Tour average just due to the nature of a high quantity of lengthy approach shots this course presents. If you are just a little off it is not easy to find yourself with a tight lie pitching uphill to greens that are running at nearly 14 on the Stimpmeter. The players that were in the field last week at PGA National should have a slight advantage having gotten their feet wet on bermudagrass greens after the West Coast Swing that featured primary poa annua surfaces.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($11,900)
Other than Tiger Woods, you'd be hard-pressed to find someone with a better record at Bay Hill than McIlroy. In seven starts, the Northern Irishman owns six top-11 finishes including his victory in 2018. McIlroy comes into this week having finished top-20 in his last eight starts worldwide. His ball-striking remains very solid and he is now starting to putt better with some big events on the horizon.
Sungjae Im ($11,300)
Im checked in as the favorite for last week's Honda Classic, but ended up missing the cut. I think you can use that to your advantage in a better field this week at the API, where his ownership percentage should be down. Im has a pair of third place finishes and a T21 in three career starts at Bay Hill. He is fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Around-the-Green, 11th in GIR percentage and second in scrambling this season.
Marc Leishman ($11,000)
Leishman has not missed a cut anywhere since last year's Open Championship. He owns six top-20 finishes in eight starts this season and has everything rolling right now. Leishman ranks 15th on Tour in SG: Putting, 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 28th in GIR percentage, 22nd in scrambling and fifth in putts per GIR. The Aussie finished top-25 at Bay Hill in five of his last six starts, including his win at the 2017 API.
Keith Mitchell ($10,200)
After a T9 at the Honda Classic last week, Mitchell has now posted top-12 finishes in five of his last six starts. His is striking the ball great this season, ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Mitchell is also top-25 in par-3 and par-5 scoring average. He has taken well to Bay Hill, notching a pair of top-6 finishes in three career starts.
Longer Shots with Value
Chris Kirk ($9,300)
Kirk is trending very nicely as we come to perhaps his best course on Tour. He posted a T14 at the Phoenix Open and followed it with a T7 at the Honda Classic last week. Kirk absolutely loves him some Bay Hill, posting top-15 finishes in four of his last five starts here. He is also eighth in SG: Around-the-Green, 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th in par-3 scoring average this season.
Luke List ($9,200)
List has struggled in two starts since his breakthrough win at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he fits the profile so well at Bay Hill. List has posted a trio of top-20s in four starts at the API. He is also a bomber who ranks top-20 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Tee-to-Green and GIR percentage.
Tom Hoge ($8,700)
Hoge checks in this week with a steal of a price tag for a man a win, runner-up, and T4 all in his last seven starts. The TCU alum ranks third in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th in proximity to the hole and seventh in scrambling this season. Hoge is also fourth in par-3 scoring and has scored a pair of top-26 finishes in just three career starts at Bay Hill.
Lucas Glover ($8,600)
Even at age 42, Glover is still striking the ball extremely well. He ranks 22nd in SG: Approach, ninth in driving accuracy, and third in GIR percentage. Glover's lone finish outside the top-40 in 2022 was a missed cut at Pebble Beach. He has a lot of experience around Bay Hill, going 9-for-12 with five top-20 finishes.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Unlike the Genesis Invitational a couple weeks ago that felt really top heavy, this field feels a lot deeper. You still have a number of world-class players at the top, but there's a lot of players that have good course history and are striking the ball well further down the salary board. I'm holding on Jon Rahm this week, who is making his debut at Bay Hill, as well as Viktor Hovland, who has three previous starts here but has never done better than a T40. This is not the easiest course to get around, so lean towards experience if you are deciding between a few different players in a particular range. Martin Laird ($8,200), Andrew Putnam ($8,100), and Sean O'Hair ($7,300) are a few options further down the salary board that stand out.
