This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
The Masters
Purse: $11M
Winner's Share: $1.98M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Augusta, Ga.
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
2017 champion: Sergio Garcia
Tournament Preview
Every single year, Masters week is far and way the most anticipated time on the golf calendar. But the run-up to this version, the 82nd Masters? It's just been off-the-charts bonkers. "It's always highly anticipated," Jim Nantz told reporters on a conference call the other day, "but I think anyone who's on this call who follows the game knows that this is probably the most anticipated that any of us have seen in our lifetimes." Nantz, heading into his 33rd Masters with CBS, has a vested interest in pumping up the volume, but this time he's absolutely spot on. Week after week, storyline after storyline has emerged. Tiger! ... Phil! ... Rory! ... Bubba! And that's not even including the top5 in the world rankings: DJ, JT, Rahm, Spieth, Rose. Not all five of them are at their sharpest, but one of them could anchor your lineup.
Okay, let's get to the field. With Ian Poulter's stirring win in Houston on Sunday, there are 87 golfers in the tiniest Masters field in years. Right off the bat, we are eliminating 19 guys from our projections: 12 former champs who otherwise wouldn't be in the field, plus the six amateurs, plus Ted Potter Jr. (Sorry, Potter family, but enjoy Thursday and Friday.) Now, many of you might be considering Fred Couples, who has been a top-25 machine at Augusta, including a T18 last year. But despite the very attractive $6,700 price, Couples has been having back issues for months and he hasn't played so much as one hole since mid-January. On TV at the Masters on Monday, Couples, 58, said he feels "pretty good." If that's good enough for you, go for it. As for Masters rookies, we all hear that they cannot win -- Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 was the last -- but you need six golfers, and some of the first-timers can be valuable chips (last year, newbie Thomas Pieters tied for fourth).
Some of the DraftKings prices seemed off, which could be a byproduct of posting the board three weeks before the tournament, instead of the usual three days in advance. We have found some prices that are high, but more that seem too low. For instance, would Dustin Johnson still be the top guy if prices were released after he flamed out at the Match Play? Would Rory McIlroy be under $10,000 if his Bay Hill win were included? Ditto Bubba Watson, tagged with an $8,700 price before his Match Play win. There are more examples throughout and some will be reflected in our value picks.
The course itself is and always has been a bear. It was the second hardest track on Tour last year, behind only Quail Hollow. We all know the wild swings that can happen on the two late par-5s, Nos. 13 and 15. But those are two of the easiest holes on the course. The hardest? Last year it was No. 1, so good luck to all the golfers with those first-tee jitters. The next three toughest were all on the back: 11, 18 and 12. Augusta is not overly long and there's little rough, but getting on the green in regulation is nonetheless hard, what with all the greenside run-offs and collection areas. The intangible is course management. We'll delve deeper into that in the key stats and Champion's Profile below.
Weather-wise, there's a lot going on. Right now they are calling for rain on Wednesday and Saturday. Thunderstorms the day before the tournament could give longer hitters more of an advantage. (Let's hope the Par 3 Contest doesn't get rained out; Tiger was considering playing.) Overall, this will not be typical conditions for a Georgia springtime. Temperatures will be cooler than usual on the weekend, expected to be in the 60s on a rainy and windy Saturday, then maybe dipping into the 30s at night before climbing back into the 60s on Sunday. Depending on how bad the weather gets, it could actually help the shorter hitters. Back in 2007 in chilly and windy conditions, even the longest hitters couldn't get home in two on some holes, and Zach Johnson was able to emerge as the champion.
Key Stats to Winning at Augusta (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Strokes gained: off the tee
Past Champions
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 - Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Bubba Watson
2011 – Charl Schwartzel
2010 – Phil Mickelson
2009 – Angel Cabrera
2008 – Trevor Immelman
Champion's Profile
In the eight Masters played this decade, every winner but one has finished top-6 in the field in greens in regulation (Charl Schwartzel, 19th, 2011), only one has been outside the top-10 in scrambling (Bubba Watson, 15th, 2012), and only one has been outside the top-13 in putting average (Watson, 28th, 2014). With little rough on the course, golfers are free to let it fly off the tee. Augusta is a second-shot golf course, and that's why greens in regulation tops the key stats. Invariably, though, golfers will miss the greens, and that brings scrambling into play in a big way. And if the rain really comes on strong, then more greens will be missed and scrambling could be an even greater factor. With putting, it's perhaps more important to avoid three-putting on the speedy greens than to make one-putts. One thing no statistical data can measure is the pressure a golfer feels at the Masters.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $10,800 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
There have been too many times over the past year or so where we've been slow to jump on Thomas, or dismissed him because of poor course history or something like that. He's the best golfer in the world right now and things that held him back in the past aren't holding him back anymore. His accuracy is better, he knows when to go for it and when not to, his temper is mellowing. He's finished T39 and last year T22 in his two visits to Augusta. That's the sort of thing that in the past would sway us against Thomas. Not this time. He's finished top-5 with a win in his last three starts, top-10 in his past four and top-25 in 14 of his past 15. In our mind, Thomas is the favorite this week.
Jordan Spieth - $10,400 (10-1)
Just as Rory McIlroy saw his No. 1 perch toppled by Spieth and then others a few years back, Spieth has been overtaken by Thomas and Dustin Johnson. It's odd, because Spieth is playing better tee-to-green than he ever has before. It's his putting that's been disastrous. However, there was a ray of light emanating from the greens in Houston last week, when Spieth putted well for two days and better than he had been in months. With a win and two runners-up in four starts at the Masters, Spieth clearly has shown an affinity for Augusta. We envision a high finish for Spieth this week.
Tiger Woods - $10,000 (12-1)
For all the greatness Woods has shown at Augusta National over the years, his last win there was in 2005, long before his health and other issues surfaced. Granted, he kept finishing in the top 5 year after year, and that's all that is needed -- maybe not even that much -- for Woods to earn his DraftKings price this week. Woods has played the Masters only once since that last top-5 in 2013, and that was a T17 in 2015. We suspect Woods can crawl out of bed and get a T17; we also suspect he'll do better this time around.
Rory McIlroy - $9,900 (10-1)
McIlroy could be the biggest wild card in the field. He's of course someone who should already have a Green Jacket before imploding back in 2011. McIlroy has compiled top-10s in four straight years, and you could use his recent win at Bay Hill to argue he's more on form than he has been in some time. McIlroy's iron play has uncharacteristically held him back this year, while his scrambling (ranked 25th on Tour) and putting (23rd in strokes gained: putting) have been stellar.
Tier 2 Values
Phil Mickelson - $9,500 (16-1)
The three-time champion has been far from a sure thing at Augusta the past five years, with only one top-20 -- his 2015 runner-up. But Mickelson right now is playing his best golf in five years and, combined with his course management skills, it all adds up to a promising outlook for the week. Mickelson is ranked second on Tour in strokes gained: putting and fourth in SG: approach. One caveat: The Wild Phil made a partial return last week, with two doubles and two triples at Houston. That sort of play would end his Masters chances real fast.
Justin Rose - $9,200 (14-1)
It's hard to find bigger names than the first five listed, but Rose is the choice of many golf experts this week. He has been a worldwide top-10 machine for six months, and he was the Masters runner-up two of the past three years. Rose hasn't finished outside the top-25 here in a decade. He is ranked eighth on Tour in scrambling and 13th in strokes gained: putting. Despite all that ammunition, you don't even need a win for Rose's $9,200 price tag to get a return on your investment. He is clearly the biggest bargain among the elite names.
Paul Casey - $8,800 (25-1)
Casey has finished in the top 6 at the Masters three years running, and now he's playing even better, with a recent win at the Valspar. Casey does it year-in and year-out despite mediocre putting. He's ranked second on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, eighth in SG approach and 11th in SG around. That's enough to offset ranking 93rd in strokes gained: putting.
Bubba Watson - $8,700 (16-1)
It's clear that "Bubba: The Lost Year" is no longer in production. Instead, we are all now watching "The Return of Bubba." Watson has won twice in the past seven weeks. His length off the tee, free of trouble much of the time at Augusta, gives him a huge edge over most golfers this week. In his two Masters victories in 2012 and '14, Watson turned in spectacular results for greens in regulation and scrambling, and has even putted quite well. So far on Tour this season, Watson is ranked 22nd in GIR. That's a scary thought for the other golfers.
Tier 3 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $8,400 (30-1)
There's a reason Matsuyama's price is $1,500 cheaper than it was last year. The Japanese star is coming off a wrist injury that sidelined earlier this winter. He appears to be healthy; it's just a matter of getting reps. Between Bay Hill and the Match Play, Matsuyama has played seven rounds since his return. That's not a whole lot. But at this price, we're comfortable taking a bit of a gamble on a guy we suspect will not be highly owned. Matsuyama has a great Masters track record -- T11, T7, T5 the past three years. He's also ranked third on Tour in strokes gained: approach and is not as bad on the greens as we are led to believe. Matsuyama is ranked a respectable 65th in SG: putting.
Alex Noren - $8,100 (40-1)
Boy, there continues to be a lack of respect for the No. 15 golfer in the world. The Swede has been stellar since coming stateside seven tournaments ago, collecting three top-5s and six top-25s. He is ranked 11th on Tour in strokes gained: approach, 16th in SG tee to green and 17th in SG putting. Noren missed the cut last year in his Masters debut, but we suspect he learned a lot about Augusta in those two rounds.
Matt Kuchar - $7,600 (40-1)
Kuchar is bound to be a popular pick, another guy with a price tag that just jumps out and says, "Pick me! Pick me!" Kuchar has never missed a cut in eight visits, half of them top-10s, including a T4 last year (and that was not a traditional Kuchar backdoor top-10 -- he really contended, just like he did in last year's Open Championship). Kuchar was in a rough patch a month or so ago, but finished top-10 the past two weeks at the Match Play and Houston. Kuchar will need to improve his game off the tee this week, but he's ranked 22nd on Tour in strokes gained: putting and 43rd in greens in regulation.
Xander Schauffele - $7,500 (80-1)
Schauffele is in his first Masters. We don't think he will win, but we've been impressed with his success on other tracks he had never played, including East Lake. He also tied for fifth last year at the U.S. Open -- his first appearance in a major -- and followed that up with a T20 at the British Open. So the big events clearly do not phase Schauffele. He finished top-20 in his past four starts overall. Schauffele is 12th in strokes gained: off the tee, 39th in SG: tee to green and so-so-73rd in SG: putting.
Long-Shot Values
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - $7,100 (125-1)
Aphibarnrat is ranked 30th in the world. While he plays the bulk of the time in the weaker fields of the European Tour and in Asia, Aphibarnrat has more than held his own in top fields. He tied for fifth at the WGC-Mexico and reached the quarterfinals of the Match Play. In his lone Masters, the Thai star tied for 15th back in 2015. In limited action on the PGA Tour, Aphibarnrat is ranked 33rd in strokes gained: putting.
Kevin Chappell - $6,900 (80-1)
Chappell withdrew from the Match Play with "back pain," but he has made his way to Augusta, where he's bound to be a popular long-shot pick. And with good reason. Not only did Chappell tie for seventh at Augusta a year ago, he is ranked third on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, eighth in SG tee to green and 16th in SG total. Not including the Match Play, Chappell is 7-for-7 in cuts in 2018, with three top-10s.
Bryson DeChambeau - $6,900 (80-1)
Here's another guy who is priced too low because it doesn't take into account his runner-up to McIlroy at Bay Hill. DeChambeau has played the Masters once before, tying for 21st as the low amateur in 2016. He's ranked 13th on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, 14th in SG tee to green, 31st in SG approach. With sub-par scrambling and putting numbers, DeChambeau will need all of his tee-to-green acumen to succeed this week.
Cameron Smith - $6,900 (150-1)
The 24-year-old Aussie has played one previous Masters, tying for 55th two years ago. Smith's ledger going back to last year shows a lot of high finishes but also a lot of missed cuts, not uncommon for a young player. Smith's strength is his short game, as he's ranked 11th in scrambling and 20th in putting average. He reached the quarterfinals of the Match Play his last time out, a result that carried him inside the top-50 in the OWGR for the first time.
