This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
Purse: $6.7M
Winner's Share: $1.206M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC (South course)
Yardage: 7,698
Par: 72
2016 champion: Brandt Snedeker
Tournament Preview
We've seen the fall season. We've seen the #59Watch season. What happens next on the PGA Tour is like switching the channel from "Barney & Friends" to "Breaking Bad:" golf is about to get a whole lot grittier. Torrey Pines South is a behemoth, the longest course golfers will face all season and annually one of the hardest -- last year, it was second toughest on Tour, behind only mighty Oakmont, and Brandt Snedeker's 6-under was the lowest winning score in a non-major.
So why would Tiger Woods choose to make this his first Tour event in 17 months? As he said the other day, he has won here eight times (that's a pretty good reason). Ten of the top-25 in the world will be on hand, with No. 1 Jason Day, No. 3 Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson highlighting the 50th edition of this storied event at Torrey Pines. They will play three times on the South course and once on the North (par-72, 7,258), which traditionally is one of the easiest tracks of the year. In 2016, the South played almost four shots harder, 74.5 to 70.9, with a final-round average of almost 78. Howling wind was a huge factor, but even still, the South was the sixth hardest course two seasons ago and fourth hardest in 2014. Not only is the course the longest, but the rough will be thicker than usual with all the rain in Southern California this winter.
The South features four of the hardest holes out of the 900 played on Tour last season, all of them par-4s of at least 450 yards: the 504-yard 12th (third hardest), 462-yard 7th (15th), 488-yard 4th (21st) and 450-yard 1st (27th). The biggest hitters surely do have an advantage, but driving distance may not be the most important statistical consideration this week (see Champion's Profile). Moving down the fairway, the South greens are diabolically configured to repel from the center, and thus golfers who hit accurate approach shots can still be left with 30-40 footers, if their ball even stays on the green. It's all a way of saying there is no soft landing this week. A lot of the guys that have played well the past few weeks will seem like different golfers, at least until Friday, at which point they will be heading home. Welcome to the real golf season!
Key Stats to Winning at Torrey Pines South
• Driving distance
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Putting > 25 feet
Past Champions
2016 - Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
2009 – Nick Watney
2008 – Tiger Woods
2007 – Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
When a course in nearly 7,700 yards, there's no denying that distance matters. But it's not mandatory for victory. Winners Bubba Watson and Jason Day were No. 1 in distance while Tiger was No. 2 in 2013. But Brandt Snedeker was way back in his two wins (47th both times), as was Scott Stallings (24th). Most importantly, the tournament will favor the best all-around golfers and expose others. When Woods was winning this tournament seven times and also taking the 2008 U.S. Open title at this course, he did so because he was the best golfer. Of the past 10 winners, really only two were not elite at the time: Stallings and Ben Crane (Nick Watney was 12th in FedEx points in 2009). Iif you look for a common thread, it's difficult to find one -- outside of scrambling. Snedeker was fifth in scrambling last year. In 2016, the top seven finishers all were among the top-20 in scrambling. The year before, the top four and eight of the top-10 were in the top-20 in scrambling. Woods was an aberration in 2013, at T42 in scrambling, but the next four finishers were top-five in scrambling, one of them being Snedeker. In Snedeker's 2012 win, he was sixth in scrambling. Crane was first in scrambling the year he won. Does it guarantee the winner will have good scrambling numbers? Of course not, but that's a lot of data all pointing in one direction. Lastly, long-range putting should occur early and often this week. The best overall putters and the best lag putters aren't necessarily one in the same, but there surely is a correlation.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jason Day - $11,400 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 9-1)
Day is one of the longest hitters and one of the best putters -- though he didn't putt well in 2015 and still won. He's our clear choice among the top values. Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler played halfway around the world in Abu Dhabi last week. Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Rose do not have a great course history, though Torrey Pines does align perfectly for Matsuyama's game. Finally, three-time winner and scrambler extraordinaire Phil Mickelson has surprisingly missed the cut four of the past five years.
Brandt Snedeker - $9,500 (25-1)
Of course he will be popular pick, maybe the most popular among the top guys, but don't overthink this. He has won twice here in the past five years, with two runners-up since 2010, so he's among the best bets to finish at or near the top of the leaderboard.
Shane Lowry - $9,000 (60-1)
A third choice at $9,000+ seems necessary, and in this case it is Lowry. The Irishman has played the tournament twice, tying for 13th last year and seventh in 2015, which is pretty good for his first two tries on this tough track. Lowry has always been superior tee to green, finding much of his trouble with putter in hand. Great putting can cover all weaknesses, but Torrey Pines can minimize that shortcoming.
Tier 2 Values
Gary Woodland - $8,600 (40-1)
Woodland is a big hitter with four straight cashes here, including a T18 last year and T10 in 2014. He has posted great numbers in the early going of the 2016-17 campaign, as he sits 22nd on Tour in scrambling, 17th in strokes gained: tee to green and 12th in strokes gained: putting. He was 59th in scrambling last year, but it appears he has made some strides there this season.
Marc Leishman - $8,500 (50-1)
Leishman was in Woodland's scrambling neighborhood last year, finishing 56th on Tour. The Aussie missed the cut last year here but made 5-of-6 before that, with three top-10s, two of which were runner-up finishes. Leishman is not the longest off the tee, but he is also far from the shortest. When he finished second in 2014, he was first in GIR, first in proximity and ninth in scrambling.
J.B. Holmes - $8,200 (50-1)
Yes, another big bomber. Holmes was sixth here last year and runner-up the year before. This is not our heartiest endorsement, but he certainly can have a role if you're playing multiple lineups across multiple games.
Brendan Steele - $8,000 (40-1)
Steele just keeps getting better and better, which offsets his mediocre finishes here. The SoCal native has made the cut five of the past six years, albeit with no top-10s. He leads the Tour in scrambling this season and was 20th in driving distance last season.
Tier 3 Values
Tiger Woods - $7,900 (30-1)
Okay, the moment many of you have been waiting for. Yes, Tiger is a value pick. This does not come with our strongest backing, but we do anticipate him making the cut. Woods might be best suited for a cash game, where if you have a guy miss the cut it won't kill you, but at the end of the day, it's just fun to pick Tiger to give you an easy reason to root for him. As such, chalk this pick up to using our heart maybe a little more than our head.
Tony Finau - $7,700 (50-1)
Finau is a big hitter who recorded top-25s in his first two forays down the Torrey fairways. He was an unsightly 105th in scrambling in 2015-16, but he is showing improvement so far during this young season, as he sits 63rd heading into this week's event.
Pat Perez - $7,600 (60-1)
West Coast bias, for sure, but Perez likes to play here. He missed the cut last year, but he was not healthy so that result is being thrown out. Before that, he made five straight cuts, with four of his finished being among the top-25s. Perez was admittedly tired two weeks ago, but took last week off, so he should be fresher.
Charles Howell - $7,300 (40-1)
At this price Howell should be a popular pick, as he comes in far cheaper than last week's inflated cost. He has strong course history going back, well, forever, having made the cut every year since 2003 (!). Most of the time, Howell has produced high finishes, including 16th or better three of the past four years.
Luke List - $7,200 (80-1)
Alright, this one could blow up in our face. List has been markedly improved this season, though as we said at the top, he and everyone else have been playing easy courses. Still, List wasn't playing as well on the easy courses in years past. He is one of the biggest hitters and was 44th in scrambling last season despite sitting just 84th so far this year. He has minimal course history here, missing the cut last year and finishing T68 in 2013.
Long-Shot Values
Aaron Baddeley - $6,900 (100-1)
Baddeley has been mighty inconsistent at Torrey Pines of late, posing a T8 last year and T6 in 2013, with an MC and a T74 sandwiched in between, but we look for silver linings wherever we can in the sub-$7,000 range. Baddeley was fifth in scrambling on Tour last season, and his putting acumen is well known.
Hunter Mahan - $6,800 (Field, 7-2)
Whoa, there is a name that we didn't anticipate typing. Mahan has been on the fast track to nowhere for a few years now, but the former star has maintained some relevance in this tournament, finishing T43 last year and T47 in 2014. Mahan is a terrible scrambler and not a long hitter -- what could possibly go wrong?
John Huh - $6,700 (Field, 7-2)
Huh was T8 last year, T6 in 2012, and made 2-of-3 cuts in between. He's a great scrambler, sitting 15th so far this season and finishing 25th last year.
Nick Watney - $6,300 (125-1)
There are 46 golfers priced $6,200 or lower, nearly 30 percent of the field. Invariably, some will perform at least decently. But we are drawing the line at Watney, who is on the comeback trail from injury and a steal at this price. He won here in 2009, and has had four more top-10s since. Watney missed the cut last year, but he soon after shut it down for the season due to a back injury. He is not a great scrambler, but course history and results are ultimately what matters.
