This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
PHOENIX OPEN
Purse: $6.9M
Winner's Share: $1.242M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Ariz.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Yardage: 7,216
Par: 71
2017 champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament Preview
And we now resume the Tiger-free portion of the PGA Tour schedule ... No, Tiger Woods is not in Arizona – we'll see him next at Riviera in a couple of weeks – but there's a stellar field lined up for what tournament organizers like to call "The Greatest Show on Grass." You know, the wild, blaring, piercing, screaming (alcohol-fueled?) par-3 16th. More on that in a minute. But first, the field: Five of the top seven in the OWGR are on hand. That elite group is headed by, well, that's hard to tell. Is it world No. 2 and Arizona State alum Jon Rahm? Or No. 3 Jordan Spieth, who happens to be the co-favorite among the oddsmakers and no doubt is still smarting from being overtaken by Rahm? Or No. 4 Justin Thomas, who happens to be the defending Player of the Year? Or No. 5 Hideki Matsuyama, who happens to be the two-time defending champion? Or No. 7 Rickie Fowler, who happens to be the biggest fan favorite of them all and who unbelievably is making his 10th career start in the desert? However you want to slice it, having two or more of them dueling it out on Sunday afternoon would make the most raucous atmosphere in golf even rowdier. And with the field limited to an uncluttered 132 – 24 fewer bottom-dwellers than last week – that sets up the possibility for a chalkier Sunday leaderboard (and chalkier lineup construction).
No matter the leaderboard, this already is the wildest tournament on the entire PGA Tour calendar, one that always makes for a fun prelude to the big game on Super Sunday. More than 650,000 fans attended TPC Scottsdale during the tournament last year, including more than 200,000 on Saturday alone. Heck, organizers said more than 18,000 turned out just for this Monday's practice round. The epicenter is of course the rollicking par-3 16th, where more than 16,000 fans firmly plant themselves from dawn to dusk in the stadium seating that rings the hole. Golfers who miss the green there face a mega-decibel-level wrath. So, no pressure, guys.
As for actual golf, the 16th sets up a pretty exciting three-hole finish, followed by the risk/reward 17th, a 332-yard drivable par-4 with water, and No. 18, a 442-yarder with more water and church pew bunkers that traditionally plays as one of the toughest holes on the course. Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked as the 33rd toughest course out of 50 on Tour, and this event is among the most favorable to ball strikers that there will be this year. Greens-in-regulation success correlates to leaderboard success here more than it does on most tracks. More on this in the Key Stats and Champion's Profile below.
The weather, in a word, will be spectacular – temperatures forecast in the 80s all four days, with no rain and minimal wind. That adds up to a green-light special for the golfers, though ever since a Tom Weiskopf redesign following the 2014 tournament, the winning score has been locked in the mid-teens.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Ball striking/strokes gained tee to green
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Scrambling /strokes gained around the green
Past Champions
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Kyle Stanley
2011 - Mark Wilson
2010 - Hunter Mahan
2009 - Kenny Perry
2008 - J.B. Holmes
Champion's Profile
If Hideki Matsuyama has won two years running, and Webb Simpson was runner-up last year, and Kevin Stadler won in 2014 – Kevin Stadler! – how important can putting be? Not so much. Among the last eight winners, only Phil Mickelson in his record-setting 2013 win was top-10 in putting average. Since the Weiskopf redesign, Mickelson's winning score (28-under) has been cut almost in half. This week, it's all about ball striking and greens in regulation. And if you happen to miss a green, then you better be able to scramble. A long list of ball strikers have won here. Matsuyama was second in GIR last year, first the year before. Brooks Koepka was fourth in GIR when he won. Every winner this decade has been top-10 in GIR.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $11,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
This is the one time all year that Matsuyama will top the DraftKings board. How can he not? He's won the tournament the past two years, was runner-up the year before and T4 in his first visit in 2014. Matsuyama overcame a shaky start last week to soar up the Torrey Pines leaderboard on Sunday, gaining 32 spots to tie for 12th.
Jordan Spieth - $11,400 (8-1)
Spieth has two top-10s in his two trips to Scottsdale. And maybe he arrives this time with a chip on his shoulder, having been overtaken for No. 2 in the world by Jon Rahm a couple of weeks ago.
Jon Rahm - $11,000 (10-1)
Rahm played well here even before he became a star: the Arizona State alum tied for fifth in 2015 as a 20-year-old amateur playing in just his second PGA Tour event. Rahm returned last year and tied for 16th, a great showing considering it came a week after his first career win. His second PGA Tour win came two weeks ago.
Rickie Fowler - $10,400 (12-1)
It's hard to believe that someone who finished T4 and solo second the past two years can be No. 4 on the board. That's nothing against Fowler; it just speaks to the greatness of the three guys above him. Don't be dismayed by last week's MC at the Farmers Insurance Open – that has become an annual occurrence there for Fowler. In his three prior 2017-18 starts, Fowler's worst finish was T4 at the Tournament of Champions.
Tier 2 Values
Daniel Berger - $9,500 (30-1)
Berger has notched top-10s in two of his three Scottsdale visits, including a T7 last year. He opened 2018 with a pair of top-15s in Hawaii before taking the past two weeks off. Berger ranks 19th in strokes gained: off the tee this season.
Webb Simpson - $8,900 (40-1)
Simpson is another guy with some serious course history here. The runner-up cash last year gave him a fourth top-10 in his past five visits, the lone outlier being a T14. Simpson ranks T38 in strokes gained: tee to green and 33rd in strokes gained: approach. And now Simpson has even learned how to putt: he's 18th in strokes gained: putting.
Matt Kuchar - $8,400 (40-1)
It's hard to ignore Kuchar almost any week. He's normally on or around the first page of the leaderboard and accompanied by a favorable DK price. This is his first action of 2018, but that was the case last year, too, when he tied for ninth here. That was the first of his nine top-10s and 17 top-25s last season.
Harris English - $8,100 (50-1)
English had a hide-your-eyes wraparound season, missing the cut in all five of his starts. But he has rebounded with three consecutive cashes in 2018, including a T11 at the CareerBuilder and a T8 last week at Torrey Pines. He now heads to a track where he's 6-for-6 playing the weekend and has posted two top-10s, including a T3 in 2016.
Tier 3 Values
Ryan Palmer - $7,900 (50-1)
Palmer appears rejuvenated after a lost 2017 that included his shoulder surgery and a health scare for his wife. He tied for 20th at the CareerBuilder to meet the terms of his major medical extension, then reached a playoff last week at Torrey Pines. Palmer has had three top-5s through the years at Scottsdale, including a runner-up in the first tournament following the Weiskopf makeover. In limited action this season, Palmer is 14th in strokes gained: tee to green, 22nd in SG: off the tee and 21st in strokes gained: approach.
Brendan Steele - $7,800 (50-1)
Six straight years of T26 or better for Steele at this event. And he's $400 cheaper this year. Steele has made five starts this season and last week's T29 was his poorest effort. He is third on Tour in ball striking.
Zach Johnson - $7,700 (40-1)
Johnson has finished T12-T14-T10 here the past three years, when his game wasn't as solid as it is now. Johnson has made five starts this season and has posted a top-25 finish in all of them. He ranks 20th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green.
Keegan Bradley - $7,400 (60-1)
Bradley has amassed four top-25s here in the past six years. He has also missed two cuts, including last year's event. Bradley says he loves TPC Scottsdale, where he can "pound" the driver. He's first on Tour in ball striking, 12th in greens in regulation and is coming off a solo fifth last week at Torrey Pines.
Long-Shot Values
Brian Stuard - $7,000 (125-1)
Stuard has already racked up three top-10s on the young season, with his lone missed cut coming in his last start at the CareerBuilder. Stuard tied for 16th here last year, piggybacking nicely on a T10 two years prior. He ranks T48 in ball striking, 40th in greens in regulation and an impressive 30th in scrambling.
William McGirt - $6,900 (125-1)
McGirt has played this tournament six times and never finished worse than T32. Last year he was T24. So what happened? DraftKings dropped his price $500 into the scrub-laden sub-$7,000 range. McGirt ranks 13th on Tour in ball striking.
John Peterson - $6,900 (Field, 10-1)
Peterson is 2-for-2 in cuts in 2018, though a T47 at the Sony is the best of the two. But he's fourth in strokes gained: approach, 33rd in greens in regulation and 36th in ball striking. His best showing all last season came right here, where he tied for 12th.
Brandon Harkins - $6,800 (100-1)
The man has been a top-25 machine in his first season on Tour. Sure, that's bound to end, but this bargain-basement price is too low to ignore. Harkins has six top-25s in eight starts this season, including T12 last week at Torrey Pines. His ball-striking and accuracy stats do not breed confidence, but last week he scrambled his way to another fat paycheck.
