This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $14M
Winner's Share: $2.5M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Fife, Scotland
Course: St. Andrews Links (the Old Course)
Yardage: 7,313
Par: 72
2021 champion: Collin Morikawa
Tournament Preview
For a ranking of every golfer in the field, check out RotoWire's Majors Value Meter.
It's hard to know where to begin to tell the story of the oldest golf tournament in the world being played at the oldest golf course in the world. Maybe it's the 1500s, which is when the modern game of golf was effectively invented on the St. Andrews Links, and thus why the track is called "The Home of Golf." Or maybe it's 1873, which is when the Open Championship was played on the Old Course for the first time. This week, the tournament will be played for 150th time, and for a record 30th time on these hallowed grounds.
This is the tournament that Tiger Woods had marked on his 2022 calendar -- more so than the Masters or the U.S. Open, which he didn't even participate in to ensure he'd be a part of this historic event. Woods in recent comments surely made it sound that the end of his golf career might be sooner rather than later, that he might not be playing the next time St. Andrews hosts the Open.
So two huge storylines -- Woods and and the 150th Open -- are dovetailing this week off the coast of Scotland.
St. Andrews is the crown jewel of the Open rota, scheduled to host the tournament every five years while other courses wait in the queue. The historic 150th Open was originally slated for last year, but when the pandemic forced cancellation of the 2020 Open, everything was pushed back. This will be the fifth time this century that the Open will be played on the Old Course. Woods won in 2000 and 2005, Louis Oosthuizen claimed victory in 2010 and Zach Johnson did the same in 2015. Winning a major or winning an Open is special no matter the circumstances, but doing it at St. Andrews, well, that is the most special of them all. As Jack Nicklaus famously said -- or as he said Monday was told to him by Bobby Jones -- your career isn't complete until you've won an Open Championship at St. Andrews. If so, very few golfers have complete careers. One more could reach that pinnacle on Sunday night.
Who will do it this year? Who will accomplish what likely would be the top moment of his career? The best story would be Tiger because it's always Tiger. But that won't be happening. Rory McIlroy is the favorite, not only in RotoWire's rankings but on the betting market. He has not won a major since 2014 and will surely face incredible pressure to win at this special place. A Jordan Spieth victory would of course move the needle, particularly with him coming oh-so-close here in 2015. Then there's world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is on the brink of a season unseen since Woods in his prime, plus Xander Schauffele, the hottest player going with two wins in a row. Don't forget defending champion Collin Morikawa, who did the unthinkable by winning in his first Open appearance.
In all, the field is set at 156. This is such a once-in-a-lifetime event that former Open champs who had stopped returning as they got older are playing this year, embarrassment be damned. We're talking about David Duval, Mark Calcavecchia and Paul Lawrie. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 45 Open first-timers will at least have something to tell their grandchildren.
Okay, so what about the actual golf? St. Andrews is confounding -- with menacing gorse and uneven lies everywhere and 110 diabolical pot bunkers and enormous fescue greens with severe undulations -- yet also the easiest course in the Open rota. In the four Opens at St. Andrews this century, the winning score fell between 15- and 19-under. And if there's no harsh weather, the golfers could again chew this place up.
The Open website lists the course as a par-72 at 7,313 yards. Pretty standard, except that there are just two par-3s and two par-5s. One of the par-5s, the 14th hole, is a bear at 614 yards. The par-3 11th is a mere 174 yards yet humorously called "the shortest par-5 in golf." Of course, the hole is no joke. The back nine played far harder in 2015, with five of the six toughest holes. Three of them were Nos. 15, 16 and 17, all par-4s, all into the wind, with the hardest of them all being the famed Road Hole, the 495-yard 17th. The 18th, with the iconic Swilcan Bridge and Valley Of Sin, is a drivable par-4 at 356 yards that actually played as the second easiest hole in 2015. So with 15, 16, 17 being so hard, and 18 being relatively easy, we could be in store for some big-time swings come Sunday.
We have seen in the past that length is a big asset the Old Course. And with such wide fairways, there's not much to deter the golfers from letting it fly. Yes, there are the pot bunkers, but so much of that is luck -- you can miss by two feet or go right in. Reports from the course say conditions are very firm and very fast, so everyone could be long this week. We could see some 400-yard drives with all the roll. The fescue green complexes, besides being so enormous that there are multiple shared greens -- have some severe undulations. If the wind is not enough of a defense, tough pin placements might be all the R&A has left to prevent a birdie-fest.
Weather-wise, the forecast calls for it to be warmer than we often see at an Open, with high temperatures near 70 all four days. The best chance of rain is Friday morning. The critical condition is always the wind, which is not expected to be very strong, with gusts up to only 20 mph. That could make all the difference in the world.
Key Stats to Winning at St. Andrews
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Distance/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Handling the pressure of a major
Past Champions
2021 - Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George's)
2020 - None
2019 - Shane Lowry (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson (St. Andrews)
2014 - Rory McIlroy (Royal Liverpool)
2013 - Phil Mickelson (Muirfield)
2012 - Ernie Els (Royal Lytham & St. Annes)
Champion's Profile
It's counterintuitive to think that a track that can be so challenging with so many pitfalls could also be easy. But that's the case when a course's primary defense is weather. There are mixed reports on how hard the wind will be blowing. It takes a special type of imaginative player to win at St. Andrews, with so many options around the greens. It's possible this tournament could be reduced to driver-wedge-putter. With enormous greens that on occasion will warrant some 50-yard putts, putting matters a whole lot this week. It's no coincidence that the three winners here this century were Tiger Woods (twice), Louis Oosthuizen and Zach Johnson, as they were all excellent putters at the time. As we say with every major but even more so this week, the most important consideration in crafting a champion's profile is largely unquantifiable: How will they handle all the pressure? Who is mentally tough enough to win this week? The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 271.5, or 16.5 strokes under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $11,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +900)
McIlroy is the favorite everywhere -- DraftKings DFS, DraftKings Sportsbook, etc. -- and with good reason. He grew up playing these types of courses. He's won an Open (2014) and also finished second, third, fourth and fifth. The third-place result came at St. Andrews in 2010, and he could have had another quality finish had an injury not prevented him from teeing it up here in 2015. He has finished top-10 in every major this year. The biggest obstacle for McIlroy will be the enormous pressure he'll face, much like when the Open returned to Northern Ireland at Royal Portrush in 2019. That year, he missed the cut. To bet on Rory, sign up with the DraftKings promo code to get an awesome bonus.
Jordan Spieth - $10,000 (+1600)
When we talk about needing imagination to work your way around St. Andrews, Tiger comes to mind first, but Spieth checks in second. He was runner-up last year. He won it all at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He missed the playoff at St. Andrews in 2015 by a stroke after a soul-crushing bogey at No. 17. Spieth is coming off a good week at the Scottish Open, one that saw him in contention until fading on the back nine.
Xander Schauffele - $9,900 (+1200)
Schauffele's odds have been amended to reflect his Scottish Open win. The DFS prices came out before completion of the tournament. He's the No. 2 favorite on the Sportsbook but No. 7 in DFS. His price is even cheaper than last year ($10,000). Besides being the hottest player coming into this week, Schauffele has shown he can contend at an Open; he was runner-up at Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018. He was T26 last year.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,700 (+1800)
Fitzpatrick has not been great in his six Opens. His best finishes, however, came in the past two editions: a T26 last year and a T20 in 2019. Like McIlroy, Fitzpatrick grew up playing links golf and and has an edge in that regard over much of the field. On top of that, he is amid the best year of his career, won the U.S. Open last month and even had a great showing at the Scottish Open last week.
Tier 2 Values
Shane Lowry - $9,300 (+2200)
The big Northern Irishman won at Royal Portrush in 2019, then followed it up with a tie for 12th last year. He also was ninth back in 2014. He missed the cut at St. Andrews in 2015. Lowry is amid a very good year on the PGA Tour, and he also is coming off a top-10 at the Irish Open. For such a burly guy, he doesn't look like he'd have soft hands around the green, but he's ranked second on Tour in scrambling.
Tyrrell Hatton - $8,700 (+4000)
Hatton is not for the faint of heart, and perhaps not for cash games. But for GPPs, he's has tremendous upside. We could see the Englishman contending on Sunday or heading home on Friday. Hatton has missed the cut in six of his nine opens, including at St. Andrews in 2015, but he also has finished fifth (2016) and sixth (2019). Hatton is ranked sixth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Tommy Fleetwood - $8,600 (+3500)
Continuing with a British-laden Tier 2, we liked Fleetwood last week, he delivered with a T4 at the Scottish Open, and we like him again this week. He combines two things we are focusing on: a top golfer who is good on the links. At No. 35 in the world, Fleetwood qualifies for our definition of "top," especially at his affordable price tag. He was runner-up to Lowry in 2019 and tied for 12th the year before at Carnoustie. He's also great with wedge in hand, ranking 10th on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. The more the wind blows, the more we like Fleetwood.
Tony Finau - $8,400 (+3500)
Utah is about as far from Britain as possible, but we surely like Finau here. Not only has he turned around his season in the past few months, with a couple of runner-ups and another top-5, but he's had a sneaky good track record at the Open. Starting in 2016, Finau has finished T18-T27-T9-3-T15. Not too shabby.
Tier 3 Values
Justin Rose - $7,400 (+6500)
Rose has made seven straight Open cuts, with five of them top-25s. Two of those were top-10s, including a tie for sixth at St. Andrews in 2015 and a runner-up at Carnoustie in 2018. Rose remains a top-flight putter, ranked 18th on Tour. He made the cut this year at the PGA (T13), U.S. Open and Scottish Open, and he was fourth at the Canadian Open last month.
Seamus Power - $7,400 (+6500)
This is a great price for someone who finished T33 at THE PLAYERS, T27 at the Masters, T9 at the PGA Championship and T12 at the U.S. Open. Yes, none of those are played on links, but the 35-year-old Irishman also tied for 30th two weeks back at the Irish Open. Power has never played in an Open Championship -- heck, he'd never played in any major before this year. He's ranked 14th on the PGA Tour in scrambling an 27th in SG: Putting.
Thomas Pieters - $7,200 (+13000)
Pieters is having a bounce-back season on the DP World Tour. He's won twice since November and just missed a third win last month when he lost a a playoff to Haotong Li at the BMW International Open. His stats are strong across the board: fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th in Approach, 16th in Around-the-Green, 32nd in Putting and second in Total. Pieters just missed a top-25 at the U.S. Open (T27). In four Open championships, he hasn't missed a cut.
Jordan Smith - $7,200 (+15000)
The 29-year-old Englishman is a guy not many U.S.-based golf fans knew about two weeks ago. He's been tearing up the DP World Tour with seven straight top-25s. The past two were on links at the Irish and Scottish Opens, and the Scottish had a loaded field. Smith has played in only one Open before, missing the cut in 2018.
Long-Shot Values
Danny Willett - $7,000 (+15000)
Willett is a lot like Hatton, in that he can be all or nothing. But he obviously has game -- he's won a Masters and seven other DP World Tour events. Willett has not been great lately, missing four of his past five cuts, including at last week's Scottish Open. But he has made seven of nine cuts at the Open Championship and has a pair of T6s, one at St. Andrews in 2015 and another in 2019.
Kevin Kisner - $6,900 (+20000)
If you're looking for a real steal at this price, Kisner is probably not your guy. If you're looking to get 6 for 6 through to the weekend, Kisner is a good option. He's made the cut the past five years though, usually far back except for one year when he actually tied for second. That was at Carnoustie in 2018. Kisner will be aided as much as anyone by the firm and fast conditions, getting plenty of roll to keep up with the longer hitters. After that, he's in his wheelhouse, as he's ranked 23rd in SG: Around-the-Green and 10th in Putting.
Sam Horsfield - $6,700 (+20000)
The young Englishman recently joined LIV Golf. He was statistically one of the top players on the DP World Tour before departing. He was first in SG: Approach, 37th Around-the-Green, ninth in Putting and first in SG: Total. In Horsfield's final start on Tour, he won the Soudal Open. He then missed the cut at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. He made the cut in his Open Championship debut last year.
Joohyung Kim - $6,500 (+15000)
Like Schauffele above, Kim is another guy whose price is too short because it came out before completion of the Scottish Open. The 20-year-old Korean tied for third. We liked him to make the Open cut even before the Scottish (he's ranked 40th in our Open player rankings). Not many Asians have made a successful transition to the bigger tours, but Kim looks like he's coming. He was 17th at the Byron Nelson and top-25 at the U.S. Open.
