DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Texas Children's Houston Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

TEXAS CHILDREN'S HOUSTON OPEN

Purse: $9.5M 
Winner's Share: $1.71M 
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner 
Location: Houston 
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 70
2024 champion: Stephan Jaeger

Tournament Preview

The beginning of the PGA Tour season is divided into segments. So far, we've had the Hawaii Swing, the West Coast Swing and the just-completed Florida Swing. Each one serves as a checkpoint, as a reminder, of how much longer it'll be till the Masters. Golf writers are fond of noting that it's "100 days till the Masters" or "50 days till the Masters." And now, with the two-event Texas Swing upon us, we can finally see Magnolia Lane in the distance.

By the time Thursday rolls around, it will be just 14 days till the biggest golf tournament of the year.

We should see most Masters participants either this week or next at the Valero Texas Open (save the LIV golfers). Houston tournament organizers will get some bragging rights by snaring the two best players in the world facing off for the final time before Augusta, though the overall strength and depth of the field will be better in San Antonio.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy headline this week's 156-man field that features only two other top-20s -- Wyndham Clark and Maverick McNealy. Other names of note include Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Nick Dunlap, J.J. Spaun, Rickie Fowler and defending champion Stephan Jaeger.

One of the oldest events in golf, in existence since the 1940s, the Houston Open was in disarray 7-8 years ago. The tournament had just parted ways with the PGA Tour's longest-standing title partner at the time, one that had become synonymous with the tournament over a quarter of a century of sponsorship: the Shell Houston Open. It was a huge blow to the Tour, and the tournament.

Enter Jim Crane, the owner of the Houston Astros. Crane also heads the non-profit Astros Golf Foundation, which came on board in 2018 to rescue the tournament. This week, he gets to see his baseball team and his golf tournament begin play on the same day.

Not only did Crane keep the tournament in the only city it has ever known, he moved it to a muni -- how cool is that?

Memorial Park is the latest muni to make its way to big-time golf, or in this case make its way back. Built in 1912 originally as a nine-hole course, it played host to the Houston Open 14 times from 1947 to 1963. Before the 2020 return, it underwent an 18-month, $34 million renovation under the direction of famed course designer Tom Doak, who got a consulting assist from Brooks Koepka, who no longer can put his course knowledge to good use how that he's with LIV.

The course is VERY long for a par-70 -- over 7,400 yards. It's a bit quirky in that there are three par-5s and five par-3s. All the par-5s exceed 575 yards -- the 587-yard third, the 625-yard eighth and the 576-yard 16th. Still, most of the guys on the leaderboard have done the bulk of their scoring on those three holes. Two of the par-3s are more than 215 and five par-4s are at least 490. The hardest holes on the course are usually the 529-yard 14th followed by almost-as-long 522-yard No. 1.

The fairways are tree-lined but generously wide, upwards of 40 yards in some spots. There are only 21 bunkers. In the redesign, many bunkers were replaced by strategic false fronts and run-offs around the greens, putting an emphasis on scrambling. The putting surfaces are large at about 7,000 square feet, bermuda with poa trivialis overseed. There's water on four holes. If all that sounds challenging, it is: Carlos Ortiz won at 13-under in 2020 and Jason Kokrak at 10-under in 2021 (two more LIV guys, FWIW). Finau's winning score did jump to 16-under in 2022, but he was four clear and only three guys reached double digits under par. Last year, it was tight again with Jaeger at 12-under.

Every year since its return, Memorial Park has ranked between the eighth and 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

For DFS and betting purposes, it's best to focus mostly on last year. The first three go-rounds at Memorial Park came in November; last year was the first in March.

Before last year's tournament, every part of the course was overseeded and that "will provide a much tighter playing surface than the bermudagrass did in 2022," according to the 2024 official Golf Course Superintendents' tournament fact sheet. "This will highlight the penal green surrounds, while shorter rough gives opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green."

This year's GCSAA sheet advised that "January was extremely cold and included 3-4" of snowfall" and "Weather since last year's event included a May windstorm (a derecho) that damaged more than 100 trees and then Hurricane Beryl in July which dropped 13"-plus of rain and damaged 100 more trees."

As for this week's weather, look for more extreme conditions. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast throughout Thursday and Friday before things clear on the weekend. The double-digit wind, however, is expected to stick around all four days. High temperatures will jump from from the mid-70s the first two days to the mid-80s on the last two.

Houston Open history: To illustrate the magnitude of this tournament, which dates to 1946, here are some of the champions through the years: Byron Nelson (inaugural 1946), Arnold Palmer (twice), Gary Player, Raymond Floyd, Lee Elder, Curtis Strange (twice), Payne Stewart, David Duval, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (three times), Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim(!). 

Key Stats to Winning at Memorial Park

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green 
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Par-5 Scoring, 550-600 yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2024 – Stephan Jaeger (Memorial Park)
2023 - No tournament
2022 - Tony Finau (Memorial Park)
2021 – Jason Kokrak (Memorial Park)
2020 - Carlos Ortiz (Memorial Park)
2019 – Lanto Griffin (Golf Club of Houston)
2018 – Ian Poulter (Golf Club of Houston)
2017 – Russell Henley (Golf Club of Houston)
2016 - Jim Herman (Golf Club of Houston)
2015 – J.B. Holmes (Golf Club of Houston)

Champion's Profile

We have four years of course history but only one in March. We can still use the November information. But first, here's what happened last year.

Even though the course is uber-long, the longest hitters did not dominate the top of the leaderboard. Rather, wedge play and putting did.

Jaeger won by one shot over five others, including Finau and Scheffler. He ranked 11th in driving distance, outside the top-20 in both SG: Approach and greens in regulation, ninth in SG: Around-the-Green and third in SG: Putting. Of Jaeger's 12-under, 8-under came on the par-5s -- and there are only three.

Among the runners-up, Alejandro Tosti ranked first in driving distance, Scheffler was seventh and Finau 16th. Scheffler was the only one among the leaders to rank top-20 in SG: Approach, and he was third. Importantly, Finau and Taylor Moore ranked 1-2 in SG: Around-the-Green. Moore ranked seventh in SG: Putting, Thomas Detry was 11th and Tosti 12th. Scheffler and Finau were far back, and this was a time when Scheffler was mired in his terrible putting stretch (that un-mired two weeks later when he won the Masters).

Three years ago told a different story, when greens in regulation corresponded to the top of the leaderboard.

Finau had perhaps the best week he's ever had on Tour. In winning by four shots, he ranked 21st in driving distance but also first in fairway accuracy, which is unreal given the distance. He ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in Approach, 29th in Around-the-Green, second in Tee-to-Green and, get this, second in Putting. What a week! For Finau to finish second in SG: Putting with the rest of his game so strong, it's almost surprising he didn't win by more than four. Oh, he was also first in greens in regulation.

What was especially strong about Finau's play was that he shot only 6-under on the par-5s; meaning he also scored on the par-3s and 4s.

But putting still mattered lots in prior years: Ortiz and Kokrak also finished top-5 in SG: Putting. Kokrak putted out of his mind, making over 400 feet of putts -- and still got only to 10-under. This is one tough track.

The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 268.5 -- 11.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $12,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +350) 
It's understandable there's concern over Scheffler's game, especially at this price. Mind you, as "terrible" as Scheffler has been, he's finished T3-T9-T11-T20-T25 in his five starts this season. For those of you scoring at home, that's two top-10s and five top-25s. And every one of those fields was stronger than this one is. Four of them were signature events. Scheffler was runner-up last year here and also in 2021. Our model ranks him in the top-5 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and bogey avoidance.  Overall, Scheffler lands at No. 2 in the model. You'll see No. 1 in a bit (but not it's not this next guy!).

Rory McIlroy - $11,700 (+700) 
McIlroy is still a strong play in our eyes but ... his two wins this season have come on shorter tracks, one of them very short (Pebble Beach). His other two results, both top-20s, came on longer tracks. All four were signature events in loaded fields. Like with Scheffler, this will be the weakest field McIlroy plays in so far this season (and maybe all season). Our model positioned him at No. 5 overall.

$9,000-$9-990

Aaron Rai - $9,800 (+2800) 
Rai has finished T7 here the past two editions and T19 the year before that. As the No. 4 guy on the DK board -- just behind J.J. Spaun -- those results won't satisfy his current price. But Rai is also a better player than he was those years, and notably a better putter. Rai finished T4-T11-T14 his past three starts.

Davis Thompson - $9,400 (+3500) 
There are eight guys in the $9,000s and Thompson is our second favorite. There's a lot to like but some things to be concerned about. He's coming off a tie for 10th at THE PLAYERS. But he missed two straight cuts before that. He was T13 at the Genesis. Thompson has had excellent wedge play this season, ranked 21st in SG: Around-the-Green. He's also a long, straight driver. His approach play and putting have been bad. Last year, Thompson tied for 21st here.

$8,000-$8,900

Si Woo Kim - $8,900 (+4000) 
Kim recorded four top-25s in a row -- three of them in signature events -- until a T38 at THE PLAYERS. He's ranked top-25 on Tour in both SG: Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green. He's among the better guys in the field on approaches from 200+ yards. Kim tied for 17th here a year ago.

Michael Kim - $8,700 (+3500) 
This will be one of the most important weeks of Kim's career so far. (Then it's a good thing for him that he's ranked No. 1 in our model.) Ranked 52nd in the world rankings, Kim needs to be in the top-50 by Sunday night to qualify for the Masters. If he doesn't, he can always play again next week and hope to win to get in. But that would be a ninth straight week of playing. This, then, is eight in a row. Our model places Kim at No. 1 overall in this field in bogey avoidance, third in SG: Around-the-Green, fourth in par-5 550-600 and 12th in SG: Approach. He made the cut here the past two times.

Alex Smalley - $8,200 (+5500) 
At this price, Smalley will be a popular play. But also deservedly so. He's a top-5 player in our model. He's ranked fifth on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, 10th in Tee-to-Green and 14th in Off-the-Tee. Smalley is also 11th in bogey avoidance. He missed the cut here last year but tied for fourth the time before that and 15th the year before.

$7,000-$7,900

Taylor Moore - $7,900 (+6000) 
Moore was part of the five-way share of runner-up here a year ago. This season, he's made seven of nine cuts, with two top-10s -- both of them in weaker fields like this one. Moore is ranked 19th in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green, and top-10 in par-5 birdie or better.

Davis Riley - $7,600 (+9000) 
After Riley withdrew from the season-opening Sentry, he missed the cut in his next four starts. But now he's made four cuts in a row, two of them top-10s, including solo seventh last week at the Valspar. Riley has played the last three editions of the Houston Open, getting better each time, from T29 to T27 to T14 last year.

Harry Hall - $7,500 (+8000) 
Hall is one of the best on Tour from 100 yards and in, ranked 15th on Tour in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting. He's cooled off from his stellar January, but stopped the bleeding a bit with a made cut last week. Hall tied for 28th last year at Memorial Park.

Sam Ryder - $7,300 (+11000) 
We turned to Ryder last week at a similar price and he came through with a tie for 16th. That was his second straight top-25 and gave him four on the season, while improving to eight for eight in cuts made. Ryder is not great with wedge in hand around the green, but he is an excellent putter, ranked second on Tour for the season. That helps him in the bogey avoidance department, where he's ranked 13th.

$6,000-$6,900

Steven Fisk - $6,900 (+15000) 
The 27-year-old Georgia Southern alum and Korn Ferry grad has made four of eight cuts on the season, including his past two. He tied for 28th last week at the tough Copperhead track. His stats are decent or better everywhere but on the greens. He's ranked 177th on the season in SG: Putting -- but he was far better last week with a field ranking of 36th. Fisk is among the longest hitters on Tour yet is also pretty accurate. He's ranked top-30 in SG: Tee-to-Green and top-40 in bogey avoidance.

Danny Willett - $6,400 (+40000) 
Willett continues to play on a major medical extension. He had a top-10 earlier this year at another long track, Torrey Pines, playing the Farmers. He made the cut last week at the Valspar. Willett has absolutely abysmal approach numbers. But he leads the Tour in SG: Around-the-Green and is 20th in SG: Putting, which is why he's top-5 in bogey avoidance.

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