This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SHRINERS CHILDREN'S OPEN
Purse: $8.2M
Winner's Share: $1.512M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Las Vegas
Course: TPC Summerlin
Yardage: 7,255
Par: 71
2022 champion: Tom Kim
Tournament Preview
The Shriners has been one of the few tournaments able to repeatedly showcase strong fields amid the vast wasteland that is the PGA Tour's fall season. But with huge changes to the Tour's schedule taking place, those days are gone. What is a tournament to do? Think outside the box. Last week, tournament organizers announced that LPGA great Lexi Thompson was given a sponsor's invite into the 132-man -- er, 132-person -- field, making the future Golf Hall of Famer the seventh woman to play in a PGA Tour event.
The 28-year-old Thompson is coming off a resurgent stretch in which she's finished in the top-20, top-10 and, on Sunday, top-5 in her three most recent LPGA starts. And that doesn't include last month's Solheim Cup in which Thompson went 3-1 to play a big role in Team USA retaining the Cup. All that followed perhaps the worst stretch of golf in Thompson's career, in which she had trouble simply making cuts for the first eight months of 2023.
The 11-time LPGA champion will be the first woman to play in a PGA Tour event since Brittany Lincicome at the 2018 Barbasol, and will try to become the first to make a cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias at the 1945 Tucson Open. There have been only 19 prior instances of a woman playing in a top men's event, mostly by Didrikson Zaharias, who played in seven in the 1930s and '40s, and Michelle Wie West, who played in eight as a teenager in the early 2000s. Shortly before Wie West burst upon the scene, Annika Sorenstam played at what is now known as the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2003 and missed the cut.
Sorenstam chose that tournament because Colonial is a shorter track. TPC Summerlin is far longer than the longest LPGA courses, though shortish by PGA Tour standards, especially considering the course is at 2,000 feet of altitude, which enhances distance. Thompson is one of the longest hitters in women's golf. She has averaged 270 yards off the tee this season, 12th longest on the LPGA Tour. But that number would place her within two yards of the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour, Brian Stuard, who has made seven cuts in 24 starts this season, with one top-25.
Thompson will have little chance to make the cut, even though more than half the field will make it, but her entry will have the two-fold desired effect regardless: 1) It will bring attention to a tournament deeply need of attention and, much more importantly, 2) It will send an important message to young girls everywhere, not just those harboring athletic aspirations.
"I'm hopeful that my ability to play with the men next week at the Shriners Children's Open sends a great message to the young women that you can chase your dream regardless of how hard it is," Thompson said in a statement announcing her entry. "I cannot wait to come to the city of Las Vegas, and I'm grateful to Shriners Children's for this opportunity to spend the week alongside these inspirational kids."
For what it's worth, Thompson is not at the bottom of the DraftKings board. She's priced at $6,100, and there are eight golfers at $6,000.
Thompson will be the headliner, but there are two other big names of note -- defending champion Tom Kim and young European Ryder Cupper Ludvig Aberg, who is perhaps golf's next great superstar. In all, eight of the top-50 and 29 of the top-100 in the world rankings will be on hand. Actually, that number is not half bad, and the golfers still have plenty to play for heading into the calendar-based 2024 PGA Tour schedule. There's still the matter of finalizing the top-125 in the FedEx Cup standings, and those who finish between 51st and 60th after the year-ending RSM Classic next month will gain entry into the first two Signature events of 2024, at Pebble Beach and Riviera.
Some other names of note in the field are Emiliano Grillo, Si Woo Kim, Cam Davis, Akshay Bhatia and another European Ryder Cupper, Nicolai Hojgaard. One of Team USA's vice captains, Stewart Cink, is also entered.
The Las Vegas Tour stop, around since 1983, used to be a very big deal, with the first $1 million purse in golf. In the 1980s and 1990s, the list of champions was impressive: Tiger Woods, Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Fuzzy Zoeller, Davis Love III, Curtis Strange and three-time champion Jim Furyk. But eventually the tournament got as dry as the desert. Champions included Rod Pampling, Smylie Kaufman, Ben Martin, Marc Turnesa and George McNeill. But it has found its way back, with Patrick Cantlay winning in 2017, Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Kevin Na in 2019 and Sungjae Im in 2021.
This annually has been one of the biggest birdie-fests on Tour – maybe the biggest when you consider that the winning score usually is well north of 20-under but with only three par-5s. Last year, Kim shot 24-under, as did Im in 2021. Three years ago, three guys shot 23-under before Martin Laird won in a playoff. As mentioned, the track is at altitude (2,000 feet) and plays shorter than the 7,255 yards listed on the scorecard. Really, everybody can hit it far this week, including Thompson. Summerlin annually totals among the most birdies on Tour -- but does so with only those three par-5s and without the max 156-man field, making that feat even harder. Last year's tournament featured 1,956 birdies, third most on Tour this season ("last year," "this season" -- yeah, it's complicated) behind only Detroit Golf Club and TPC Craig Ranch.
All this adds up to: Giddyap! And find aggressive, birdie-making players for your lineups.
There's plenty of opportunity for drama and wild swings late on Sunday. No. 15 is a drivable 341 yards that plays among the easiest holes on the course. No. 16 is a 560-yarder that's reachable by most of the field. The 17th is a dicey par-3 of nearly 200 yards guarded by water, and the par-4 18th is 444 uphill and with more water. The last two holes both tend to play over par -- the only holes on the back-nine that tend to do so -- so the course does stiffen when it counts most. Water comes into play on four holes. The bentgrass greens are very large, averaging about 7,400 square feet with the Stimpmeter running at 11.5. There are 92 bunkers.
As for the weather, it should be comfortable for the golfers, with temperatures in the 70s the first three days before the low 80s on Sunday. There will be zero rain and not much wind.
Fun Shriners Fact I: A twenty-year-old Woods earned his first PGA Tour victory in this event in 1996, then called the Las Vegas International. He shot 27-under-par over 90 holes and still needed a playoff to defeat a still-young-at-the-time Love (he was 32). Woods won a second tournament two weeks later and, legend has it, went on to a successful career.
Fun Shriners Fact II: The only PGA Tour playoff to end with a hole-in-one took place at Summerlin in 2010, when Jonathan Byrd aced the fourth extra hole, the 204-yard 17th, to stun Laird and Cameron Percy. In fading light, Byrd did not see the ball go in the hole. Of course, playoffs have been won with eagles from the fairway, famously by Craig Parry at Doral in 2004, but never via an ace until 2010.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Summerlin
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Distance
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage
Past Champions
2022 - Tom Kim
2021 - Sungjae Im
2020 - Martin Laird
2019 - Kevin Na
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Patrick Cantlay
2016 - Rod Pampling
2015 - Smylie Kaufman
2014 - Ben Martin
2013 - Webb Simpson
Champion's Profile
It all starts off the tee at TPC Summerlin. You don't necessarily have to be a long hitter to win this week -- well, let's rephrase that: Just about everyone is long in the Vegas desert. Medium-length Im averaged 316 in 2021. That wasn't even inside the top-25 in driving distance. Im's precision game was on full display. He led the field in greens in regulation and SG: Tee-to-Green, while sixth in Approach and ninth in Putting. He won handily by four strokes thanks to a final-round 62. Last year, Kim averaged 298 off the tee -- 70th in the field. But when you rank top-5 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, greens in regulation, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting, as Kim did, well, not much else matters. In 2020, DeChambeau's average driving distance was a surreal 363. It's not especially important to keep your drives in the fairway, because there's little penalty for missing. As we now see in this birdie-fest, the tournament will be won from the fairway on in. There are always some super-low scores. Kim shot 62 and co-runner-up Cantlay shot 60 last year. Sung Kang shot 61 two years ago while Im and Aaron Wise carded 62s. Three years ago, Matthew Wolff had a 61 and DeChambeau, Adam Hadwin and Peter Malnati shot 62s. So you're gonna have to make a boat-load of putts to win this track meet. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is the same as last year, 261.5 -- 22.5 under par. The winning score has gone over that number four years running, either 23- or 24-under.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Ludvig Aberg - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200)
We learned our lesson last week by side-stepping Aberg. Clearly, 23-year-olds do not get tired. Even after an entire continent celebrates winning the Ryder Cup. Even after playing pressure-packed golf at the highest levels and traveling the world at the same time. Aberg is the best driver in the field, maybe in all of golf, and he also checks in at 21st in putting and second in birdie or better in our model. His approach play needs to improve, but not enough to dissuade us this week.
Tom Kim - $10,900 (+1100)
Kim showed that you don't have to be a long hitter to win here, if you call averaging almost 300 off the tee "not long." He has shown more than once he can get white-hot and win a birdie-fest, not only here at the Shriners but at the Wyndham, too. Kim has stayed busy of late, playing in Europe with a top-20 at the loaded BMW PGA Championship and then last week with a tie for sixth at something called the Cazoo Open in France.
Cam Davis - $10,300 (+2200)
Davis resumed his strong play through the second half of the season with a solo third at the Fortinet. This will be his fifth go-round at TPC Summerlin and, while he doesn't have so much as a top-25 yet, his good form combined with the weaker-than-usual field here should allow him to place high on the leaderboard. Davis ranks fourth overall in our model, highlighted by placing third over his past 24 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Tier 2 Values
Adam Hadwin - $9300 (+3500)
Like many Canadians, Hadwin loves this part of U.S. when the weather gets colder up north. He has finished in the top-10 here in three of the past four years, and those fields were all far tougher than this one. Hadwin ranks sixth in the field in putting. He has not played since the BMW Championship in August and, while that's a concern, there's just too much positive info to ignore.
Adam Schenk - $9,200 (+3000)
When we last saw Schenk, he was registering top-10s in two of the three playoff events to further illustrate he belongs with the top guys in the game. The only thing missing is that elusive first PGA Tour win. It doesn't seem as if Schenk has been around long enough to have played this tournament six times already, but he has. He was 12th last year in a loaded field and third two years ago in a good field. Schenk is No. 6 overall in our model.
J.J. Spaun - $8,900 (+3500)
Spaun has much to play for during this FedEx Cup Fall. Taking last week off, he dropped out of the so-called "Next 10," the 10 guys who will finish 51st to 60th in the point standings at season's end to gain entry into the first two Signature events of 2024 at Pebble Beach and Riviera. Spaun is coming off a tie for 11th at the Fortinet. He's had a top-10 and two top-25s here through the years, including T15 a year ago.
Andrew Putnam - $8,300 (+3500)
Putnam ranks first in this field over his past 24 rounds in greens in regulation. And we all know how good of a putter he is (ranking 14th in the field). This course really plays to Putnam's strengths -- or, rather, let's him avoid his biggest weakness, which is lack of length. He has finished top-20 here in three of the past four years and, with the field now so diluted, a higher finish seems like a good possibility.
Adam Svensson - $8,200 (+4000)
We complete the Adam-laden tier with Svensson, another Canadian. Unlike his countryman Hadwin, Svensson does not have a great track record at this tournament. But he's playing some of the best golf of his career of late, including a tie for 16th last week at the Sanderson Farms. He showed little rust from being idle since the BMW Championship, where he tied for 15th. Svensson ranks eighth overall in our model, including 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 14th in birdie or better.
Tier 3 Values
Davis Thompson - $7,800 (+5000)
Thompson was eliminated from our picks in the final cut last week, and his tie for 16th showed he was better left uncut. With that result, and with a tie for 12th here last year, Thompson makes the final cut this time around. He opened his fall season with a T30 at the Fortinet. Thompson is a long hitter, a good tee-to-green guy and is 12th in birdie or better in our model, moving his overall ranking in the model to ninth.
Sam Ryder - $7,400 (+6000)
Ryder is not a long driver, but he excels in so many other key stats. He ranks top-10 in the field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach, greens in regulation, SG: Tee-to-Green and birdie or better. Ryder finished T28 here last year -- in a loaded field -- but further back he was 18th in 2019 and third in 2018.
Matthew NeSmith - $7,100 (+7000)
For a guy who was co-runner-up here last year, which gave him a fourth straight top-20 at TPC Summerlin, this price seems like a gift. Frankly, NeSmith falls outside the cutline in our model, but sometimes course history can't be explained and takes precedence. NeSmith is even coming off a top-25 last week at the Sanderson Farms.
Martin Laird - $7,100 (+10000)
Laird has won here twice and was 11th in 2021. Last year, was 37th, making it eight made cuts in nine years. Laird comes in well inside the cutline in our model (46th), and ranks third in the field in recent greens-in-regulation play. Laird has made both cuts so far in the fall, including a top-20 at the Fortinet.
Long-Shot Values
Greyson Sigg - $6,900 (+11000)
Despite indicators suggesting he was a good play last week, Sigg missed the cut. It's hard to return to the guy under that scenario, but the indicators (and model) again point to a made cut, and maybe more. Sigg has reached the weekend in both of his two prior Shriners, albeit without a high finish. He's a good all-around player without any real strength or weakness -- he's ranked inside the top-100 on Tour in every strokes-gained category.
Harry Hall - $6,700 (+13000)
The 26-year-old Englishman attended UNLV, meaning he has played TPC Summerlin lots, is ranked fifth on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting and finished 15th and eighth here the past two years. Sometimes it's smart not to overthink these things.
Zecheng Dou - $6,700 (+20000)
More commonly known as Marty Dou, he is far from a slam dunk to make the cut -- though the odds do improve this week with half the field or more getting through to the weekend. He's made four of his past six cuts, including a T12 last week at the Sanderson Farms. Dou's putting numbers aren't sensational (not terrible, either), but his tee-to-green and birdie-or-better stats look good. He missed the cut here last year.
Kelly Kraft - $6,400 (+25000)
Kraft won't finish in the top-25 every week, but he did when we recommended him at the Fortinet and then at the Sanderson Farms, so here we are again. The model shows Kraft as the second best play in the $6000s. He ranks 18th in the field in putting over his past 24 rounds.
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