This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $8.2M
Winner's Share: $1.476M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Jackson, Miss.
Course: The Country Club of Jackson
Yardage: 7,461
Par: 72
2022 champion: Mackenzie Hughes
Tournament Preview
It's not every day that Ryder Cup players come to Mississippi. Especially those from Sweden. But that's what's happening this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Fresh off Europe's big win over Team USA, 23-year-old burgeoning star Ludvig Aberg headlines the 144-man field as the PGA Tour returns this week after a three-week Cup break. Tournament organizers nearly had a double Cup coup. Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard was in the originally published field only to withdraw Sunday evening amid the joyous celebration. If nothing else, at least Sam Ryder is in the field.
The theme of this week in Jackson, at least before the tournament starts, is youth. Amid a very weak field, four of the top five golfers in the final 2023 PGA Tour University standings are on hand. Aberg, who attended Texas Tech, was first and thus is exempt through next season. Fred Biondi, the NCAA Division I individual champion out of Florida, was second. Ross Steelman -- he played in the Rocket Mortgage and John Deere over the summer, missing both cuts -- out of Georgia Tech was fourth. And Sam Bennett, familiar to golf fans for his recent starts on Tour, was fifth out of Texas A&M.
All but Aberg are in on a sponsor's invite, as is local product Ford Clegg, a recent graduate of Mississippi State.
There's also someone younger than all those collegians in the field, and that's 21-year-old and recent PGA Tour winner Akshay Bhatia.
Not to be overlooked, there are also some old guys, among them Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker and Jimmy Walker. They almost had another forty-something. Lucas Glover was announced about 10 days before the tournament, but he was not listed in the published field on Friday.
In all, there are 18 golfers among the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking, headed by No. 35 Emiliano Grillo and No. 50 Tom Hoge.
The Sanderson Farms is the second of seven FedExCup Fall events that will conclude the 2023 season before the Tour reverts to a calendar schedule beginning in January. Remember, these tournaments are vital to many golfers. After The RSM Classic in mid-November, the top 125 in the FedExCup Standings will get their Tour cards for 2024.
This tournament has had a five-decade history unlike any other PGA Tour event. It has undergone incredible change through the years and faced enormous obstacles just to still be standing today. For instance, the past three years it has had to follow first the Ryder Cup, then the President Cup and now the Ryder Cup again, leaving tournament organizers challenged to find many marquee names.
The history of the Sanderson Farms is mind-boggling. It has been known by many names since its inception way back in 1968 as the Magnolia Classic, and it's safe to say it's the biggest pro sports event in the state of Mississippi (we said "pro!"). For more than half its existence, until 1994, it wasn't even considered an official PGA Tour event; it was embarrassingly called a "satellite" tournament -- the money was real but the results were "unofficial." Then it became an opposite-field event. Along the way, it has been moved around more than an army brat, having been played in seven different months: April, May, July, August, September, October and November. It has been an opposite-field event the same weeks as -- and how's this for a heavyweight lineup of opponents -- the Masters, the Open Championship, the TOUR Championship and the WGC-Mexico, plus the Ryder and Presidents Cups. The Washington Generals can relate. Until 2018, the tourney was played the same week as the WGC-HSBC Champions but then was elevated to the top tier of tournaments.
Of course, tournament organizers likely are thankful just to be a full-status event, now for the fifth year, so life is good, even a week after the Ryder Cup and opposite the NFL and college football deep in the heart of SEC country.
This will be the 10th year at the Country Club of Jackson. The course is a 1962 Dick Wilson design, with a John Fought/Mike Gogel renovation in 2008. The course has occasionally showed some teeth but not often. It's a moderate length for a par-72. The tree-lined fairways are largely flat, wide and straight, allowing everyone to let fly. Even on narrower holes, there's little impediment to taking out driver. The tournament likely will be decided from the second shot on in, notably on the greens. They are bermudagrass and average 6,200 square feet. The key is, they are set up super fast, 12-13 on the Stimpmeter. There are only 56 bunkers on the entire course and water comes into play on five holes. One of the five is the 479-yard 16th, which is considered the signature hole and normally plays as the hardest hole on the course. It is part of an odd closing stretch of four straight par-4s that begins with the drivable 330-yard 15th and ends with the 505-yard 18th, which often plays as the second hardest hole.
As for the weather, it appears there will be two sets of conditions. On Thursday and Friday, highs will be in upper 80s. But after some rain moves in, the weekend will be cooler, in the 70s and dry, with wind not being much of a factor.
Fun Sanderson Farms factoid: Former NBC announcer Roger Maltbie won it back in 1980 when it was called the Magnolia Classic. He shot an opening 65 and then saw the final three rounds all rained out. He earned $4,500 and reportedly joked that it might not even cover his bar tab.
Key Stats to Winning at The Country Club of Jackson
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie Average/Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Past Champions
2022 - Mackenzie Hughes
2021 - Sam Burns
2020 - Sergio Garcia
2019 - Sebastian Munoz
2018 - Cameron Champ
2017 - Ryan Armour
2016 - Cody Gribble
2015 - Peter Malnati
2014 - Nick Taylor
2013 - Woody Austin
Champion's Profile
Most years, a high finish is predicated on hitting the ball far, not necessarily straight, gaining strokes on approach and navigating the lightning-quick greens. Last year, Hughes and Sepp Straka tied at 17-under after both finished regulation in the top-10 on Approach, top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green and top-15 in SG: Putting. The previous two years, there were remarkable displays of ball striking from the winners, Burns and Garcia. Burns led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green, and greens in regulation. Garcia was also first in greens in regulation. Most years, the winner will have to putt well, as Hughes and Straka did. But Burns and Garcia were so good tee to green they were able to win despite being 57th and 28th in putting, respectively. Both years, the runner-up led the field in SG: Putting. In years past, Gribble and Malnati both ranked first in SG: Putting when they won, Champ and Armour were second, Munoz fifth and Taylor was seventh. It all adds up to a pretty strong indicator that putting will go a long way in deciding this tournament, with the caveat that other-worldly ball-striking could be the decider. In the past eight years, the winning score has fallen between 17- and 22-under. The over/under on this year's winning score is 268.5 per golfodds.com -- 19.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Stephan Jaeger - $10,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
Aberg is the top-priced guy at $10,900. He really is the best player in the field. But the Ryder Cup celebration went deep into Sunday night and, combined with that always popular travel route from Italy to Mississippi, it might be a bit much to expect the young Swede to be at his best. So we turn to the No. 2 guy on the board, Jaeger, who lands at No. 1 in our model and also tops in SG: Tee-to-Green. The model factors in the past 24 rounds, which is far from ideal since that might go back into late July. But Jaeger tied for 10th at the Fortinet three weeks ago. This will be his seventh Sanderson Farms, with a best of T14 in 2018.
Eric Cole - $10,300 (+2000)
The favorite for Rookie of the Year and the only rookie to reach the second playoff event, Cole picked right back up with a top-5 at the Fortinet. A year ago, he missed the cut at the Sanderson, but he has come so far as a player in 12 months. Cole ranks fifth in the field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and is No. 1 overall in Birdie or Better.
Emiliano Grillo - $10,100 (+2500)
The highest-ranked golfer in this field, Grillo was always a near-lock to make the cut here because of his ball-striking skills. But a high finish was unlikely because of poor putting. That changed last year, when the Argentine improved on the greens to tie for fifth here, then went on to win the Charles Schwab and reach the TOUR Championship. That's the good news. The bad news is, Grillo has not played since East Lake in late August.
Tier 2 Values
S.H. Kim - $9,400 (+3000)
The 25-year-old Korean is coming off the best showing of his young PGA Tour career, a solo second at the Fortinet. He also tied for 13th here a year ago. Kim ranks top-20 in this field in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds.
Adam Svensson - $9,00 (+3500)
Svensson hasn't played since the BMW Championship, which surely is not ideal. But he closed with a flourish -- T15 at the BMW, T7 at the Wyndham. He is one of the more well-rounded players on Tour, sitting inside the top-80 in every strokes-gained category. He landed in the top-10 in our model thanks to ranking top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds.
Tom Hoge - $8,600 (+5500)
Hoge has been as busy as just about anyone in the field this side of Aberg. After notching a top-25 at the BMW Championship, he went overseas and played in the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship, tying for 14th at Wentworth in a tournament filled with every European Ryder Cupper. Hoge is ranked ninth on Tour this season in SG: Approach.
Tier 3 Values
Dylan Wu - $7,600 (+5500)
Wu had a bunch of good results before the playoffs and picked up again at the Fortinet with a tie for 14th. He ranks first in the field in SG: Putting over his past 24 rounds, so he has the ability to light it up. Wu is also ranked top-50 on the season on Tour in SG: Approach. He made the cut here last year.
Callum Tarren - $7,500 (+4500)
The Englishman did not qualify for the playoffs. But the long break before the Fortinet was not an issue, as he tied for seventh there. Tarren ranks 11th overall in our model, thanks largely to ranking sixth in his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach and second in SG: Tee-to-Green. He tied for 13th here a year ago.
Greyson Sigg - $7,500 (+10000)
Sigg had his best finish all season here a year ago with a tie for ninth. He has no real weakness -- and no super strength. He's ranked between 62nd and 92nd in every strokes-gained category. Actually, in this field, that's pretty darn good. Sigg tied for 25th a few weeks back at the Fortinet.
Hayden Buckley - $7,300 (+4500)
Buckley is among the premier drivers on Tour this season, ranking eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's pretty long and very accurate. He's also ranked 45th in greens in regulation, so the potential for a good week is evident, and has happened before. Last year, the Tennessee native tied for 19th here with a closing 65. The year before that he tied for fourth.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,300 (+8000)
Bezuidenhout comes with a warning label, as he withdrew from the Fortinet with a wrist injury. That was three weeks ago. When healthy, he's one of the better golfers in this field, once ranked 33rd in the world. The South African is at a real disadvantage on longer tracks, but this isn't one of them.
Matthew NeSmith - $7,000 (+11000)
Nesmith made his way into the playoffs in August -- no small feat with only the top-70 getting in (he was 70th). He got a big boost with a tie for ninth here a year ago. Three years ago, he tied for 17th. NeSmith's strength is his irons, as he is ranked 36th on Tour in greens in regulation. His putter usually lets him down, but that doesn't appear to be the case at the Sanderson.
Long-Shot Values
Russell Knox - $6,800 (+20000)
Knox was a pick for the Fortinet at the same $6,800 price and he tied for 30th, which would be awesome once again. The past two years here, he's tied for 24th and 29th. That's not a surprise, since this track gives the shorter hitters a fighting chance. Knox is ranked 22nd on Tour in SG: Approach, fourth in greens in regulation and second in proximity. What's the catch? He can't putt (ranked 155th).
Henrik Norlander - $6,700 (+20000)
Norlander is a horse for this course, and that's the sole reason for this pic. He notched a top-25 here last year and top-5s the two previous years. He's really struggled over the past 12 months and is now approaching No. 500 in the world rankings; he was once 96th.
Kelly Kraft - $6,600 (+40000)
We turned to Kraft at the Fortinet and he delivered with a top-25. So here we are again. He ranks top-50 in our model in SG: Approach and top-20 in SG: Putting. Down here in the $6000s, those numbers could get you in the Hall of Fame. Kraft missed the cut here two years ago but made it three years ago.
Ryan Armour - $6,400 (+35000)
Armour had a good fall season last year with a pair of top-25s, including T13 here. Of course, he won the Sanderson in 2017, so he 47-year-old surely has been counting his Mississippis until he could return to Jackson. Armour is ranked 35th on Tour this season in greens in regulation and fifth in proximity, though there are some major holes elsewhere in his game. Still, those stats are an excellent starting point to try to get to Saturday.
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