DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN

Purse: $9.3M
Winner's Share: $1.74M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC (South and North courses)
Yardage: 7,765 (South)
Par: 72
2024 champion: Matthieu Pavon

Tournament Preview

As recently as a few years ago, the Farmers Insurance Open served as the unofficial start to the PGA Tour season, when things really got going. Many big names made their first appearance of the year at Torrey Pines after the long winter break. Oh sure, the two Hawaii stops and American Express tournament always preceded the Farmers, but they generate much more interest now than they used to.

That's because the year-opening Sentry has become a $20 million Signature Event and, with the Tour's return to a calendar-based schedule, there is a lot more urgency in January. The regular season, in effect, has been cut from 11 months to eight.

So as hard as it may seem, the San Diego tour stop, around for almost 75 years, has become a bit more, oh, pedestrian. It is not a signature event and, with only two top-10 golfers and six top-25s, it's just another tournament, despite being played at beastly Torrey Pines. That may or may not have something to do with title sponsor Farmers Insurance pulling out after next year, ending a run that began in 2010. It also doesn't help that two more signature events will come in the following three weeks, so it's far from a surprise that this tournament got squeezed.

Okay, so who's here? Let's start with Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Aberg, ranked Nos. 4 and 6 in the world. There's also Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau in his 2025 debut, Jason Day, collegiate sensation Luke Clanton and the past two Farmers champions, Max Homa (2023) and Matthieu Pavon.

Tournament organizers were dealt a triple blow with word that Xander Schauffele was skipping his hometown tournament with an injury and Collin Morikawa and Akshay Bhatia both WDing after being announced in the field. We learned on Monday what's up with Schauffele, who also was a late WD from the Amex last week. He has a right rib injury since late last year, Golf Channel's Todd Lewis tweeted, adding that Schauffele is "uncertain" about next week's Signature Event at Pebble Beach (as is Scottie Scheffler, still recovering from hand surgery). 

At this point, we'll stop piling on to remind you that the tournament starts on Wednesday. As was the case the past three years, there will be a Saturday night prime-time finish on the East Coast as the Tour wisely avoids the NFL conference championship games on Sunday. Tournament organizers can only hope that the big names who are entered will still be around to get major TV time on Saturday night.

The first three tournaments of 2022 were big-time birdie-fests. That all changes this week. The past two years, Homa and Pavon won at 13-under.

The South Course, which will be in play for three of the four rounds, is a mere 235 yards shy of 8,000. The back-nine comes within 38 yards of 4,000.

Seven of the 10 par-4s on the South are at least 450 yards. The shortest par-5 is 564 and two exceed 615. Three of the par-3s are 200-plus and two are 225-plus. Really, you could make a case that there's only one short hole on the entire course -- the 389-yard second. Traditionally, the 505-yard 12th and 480-yard 15th are the biggest brutes. As usual, the back played far harder than the front last year, almost a full shot.

The sheer length of the course is not the only challenge; while the golfers will be standing far back in the fairway for their approach shots -- and they are narrow fairways, at that -- they will be aiming at some of the smallest greens on Tour. The tricky poa annua surfaces average only 5,000 square feet.

Only two courses on the PGA Tour are at least 7,500 yards long with greens no larger than 5,000 square feet -- Torrey Pines South and Muirfield Village for the Memorial. If the golfers miss the greens, they are then faced with chipping from the gnarly kikuyu grass. Water is in play on just one hole, but it can be a game-changer on the 570-yard 18th. 

The North course is some 500 yards shorter at 7,258/par-72 and is far easier, though a bit harder since a Tom Weiskopf redesign in 2016. Still, anyone hoping to contend must crush the North course and hope to survive the South. The 486-yard 18th on the North is often among the hardest holes on the entire PGA Tour. The fairways on both courses on similarly narrow, 24-27 yards, but the North greens are a bit larger at an average of 6,000 square feet, and they are bentgrass.

Needless to say, there's a premium on distance this week. Yes, with driver but maybe even more so long irons. It's always hard to envision a shorter hitter winning here, but with cooler and some rainy conditions forecast, it makes the case even more daunting. Patrick Reed did it four years back, but his short game was elite.

As for the weather, it hasn't rained in earnest in Southern California since April. That means the two public courses have been active more than usual, "which has resulted in increase in wear and tear on the property," according to the official Golf Course Superintendents Association tournament fact sheet. This week, there will be a significant temperature drop from Thursday to Sunday, starting out with highs near 80 but ending possibly in the 50s -- cooler weather would make the course play even longer. There will be no rain and winds are forecast to be light to moderate.

DFS Strategy Tip: With the golfers playing the North either Wednesday or Thursday, it's a smart play to turn to Single Stat or Tiers games and load up all six spots with guys playing the North that day.

Key Stats to Winning at the South Course

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Approach from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards

Past Champions

2024 – Matthieu Pavon
2023 – Max Homa
2022 – Luke List
2021 – Patrick Reed
2020 – Marc Leishman
2019 – Justin Rose
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 - Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day

Champion's Profile

In the past five years, the winning score has fallen between 13- and 15-under. Even though the South course is so long, driving distance has not directly correlated to success over that span. Now, we want to be clear on that: The longest hitters have not done the best here, but that doesn't mean the short hitters have. You have to have some distance this week, combined with accuracy to keep the ball in the narrow fairways. Let's call it "medium" distance. Total driving is a key stat this week.

Last year, Pavon ranked 38th in the field in driving distance and the year before, Homa ranked 55th. Three years, ago, even the long-hist List was only 12th in the field. The high finishers balanced accuracy off the tee, which made their approaches at least a little bit easier. Pavon ranked 16th in fairways hit and Homa was ninth.

Pavon also ranked 21st in SG: Approach, 47th Around-the-Green and fourth in Putting, making a whopping 381 feet worth of putts. Homa ranked first in Approach and ninth in Putting.

Last year, putting was not as vital on the first page of the leaderboard. Runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard was more balanced -- third in SG: Off-the-Tee, 31st in Approach, 28th in Around-the-Green and 20th in Putting.

No matter what happens off the tee, there will be long iron shots. Driving accuracy and GIR numbers are annually among the lowest on Tour, which brings deftness around the greens into play. A check of course history over the past five or so years shows that a lot of guys do well here year after year, maybe more so than any other course.

This may be just coincidence, but five of the past six winners started on the North. Only List started on the South.

The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 273.5, which is 14.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,700 ((Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1100)
There are four players priced in five figures and you could make a case for all of them. They possess the skillset to do well here and all have before, and the field is not very strong. But we'll skip one of them, and that's the top guy in Ludvig Aberg. He's played only twice since knee surgery last September. His normally elite driving has not been elite. It will be again soon. Let's hope just not this week. So we start with Matsuyama, which is not a bad place to start. We've said it so much but it bears repeating: When healthy -- and Matsuyama is healthy -- he's a top-five golfer. He's already won in 2025 at the Sentry and is, in fact, a top-five golfer. Matsuyama has finished 13th and ninth here the past two years and was third back in 2019.

Tony Finau - $10,200 (+2200)
Finau is a top-10 machine at Torrey Pines. He's done it the past two years and six of the past eight. He quieted speculation about returning from knee surgery with a top-15 at the Sentry.

Sungjae Im - $10,000 (+1800)
Im is a short hitter but pretty accurate, has been playing well for many months and has good results at Torrey Pines. Yes, he missed the cut last year, but was the fourth the year before and sixth in 2022. He has been among the best in the field at the long par-4s of 450-500 yards, which make up almost half of the South course. Im finished third at the season-opening Sentry.

$9,000-$9,900

Keegan Bradley - $9,900 (+2200)
Bradley has played great ever since being named Ryder Cup captain. He finished 15th at the Sentry and sixth at the Sony and is up to No. 13 in the world, not far from his career-best 10th. At Torrey Pines, it's been a mixed bag for Bradley -- good years and bad. But the good ones have actually been great, with a runner-up to Homa two years ago and two other top-5s through the years. Bradley ranked 15th in Total Driving last year (we continue to use some last-year stats since there's still such a small 2025 sample size). He will start on the North, paired with Aberg and Sahith Theegala.

$8,000-$8,900

Kurt Kitayama - $8,700 (+3500)
Some of Kitayama's best finishes have come at long and/or hard driving courses. He's won at Bay Hill, he's been third at PGA National, he was fourth at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Even though he's had no success in two prior starts at the Farmers, Kitayama ranks very high in our model thanks to strong approach play, including from 200+ yards.

Aaron Rai - $8,300 (+5000)
We didn't mention Rai in the top part even though he's one of the six top-25 golfers in the field. Hey, he just doesn't have much name recognition. But he does have a lot of game. He's an excellent driver of the golf ball and really is above average across the statistical landscape. Rai hasn't missed a cut in three visits to Torrey Pines and was sixth there three years go. He'll also start on the North.

$7,000-$7,900

Austin Eckroat - $7,700 (+6000)
Eckroat was among the most accurate drivers on Tour last year while being medium range in distance. And he's outstanding with his long irons on long par-4s and from 200+ yards (which of course overlap and if you're good at one, chances are both). A winner at Mexico late last year, Eckroat tied for 15th at the Sentry to open 2025. He's another North starter on Wednesday.

Doug Ghim - $7,700 (+7500)
Looking back at last year's Farmers article, we saw we tabbed Ghim, who was $900 cheaper then and wound up in a tie for 13th. So that worked out very well. He's another highly accurate driver, albeit with below average -- but not terrible -- distance. Ghim is sound everywhere but on the greens, which is something we're willing to accept.

Patrick Fishburn - $7,500 (+8000)
Fishburn opened his 2025 season with a tie for sixth on the narrow fairways of Waialae. Last year, he ranked fifth on Tour in Total Driving, parlaying extreme distance with better-than-average accuracy. Fishburn missed the cut here last year in his Farmers debut, but he's far improved since then.

Gary Woodland - $7,200 (+8000)
Woodland has missed only two cuts in 15 trips to the Farmers. One of them came last year in only his second start after brain surgery (let's give him a pass on that one). He used to be a top-20 machine at this tournament, and it's because of his excellent driving skills, both long and straight. Woodland started to play better at the tail end of 2024, and he opened 2025 with a top-20 at narrow Waialae.

Rico Hoey - $7,200 (+8000)
Scheffler ranked second on Tour last year in Total Driving. We'll give you one guess who ranked first. Hoey was top-25 long and well above average in accuracy. He came alive in the fall season with three top-25s and a solo third at the Shriners. Yes, the fields are weaker. He also hasn't missed a cut since the U.S. Open. Hoey will start the tournament on the North course.

$6,000-$6,900

Luke List - $6,800 (+17000)
List has made seven straight cuts at the Farmers, highlighted by his win in 2022. But he also finished 10th the year before and 25th the year after. List's three best career finishes going by world ranking points have come at Torrey Pines, Riviera (T2 last year) and PGA National (solo second in 2018) -- three big-boy golf courses. He will also start on the North.

Taylor Montgomery - $6,500 (+30000)
Very little thought went into this pick. It's 99 percent course history. Montgomery has played the Farmers three times and made every cut, with two top-15s and a worst of T31. The other 1 percent? He's made his first two cuts of 2025.

Paul Peterson - $6,500 (+60000)
The lefty-swinging Peterson is a Tour rookie after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour. In his first start as a Tour member, he tied for 10th at the Sony, Not too shabby. He played one event last year and that was a top-25 at the RSM. Peterson ranked fourth last year on the Korn Ferry in driving accuracy and scrambling, and 11th in putting.

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