This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC (South and North courses)
Yardage: 7,765 (South)
Par: 72
2023 champion: Max Homa
Tournament Preview
The annual PGA Tour stop in San Diego has been among the most stable in all of golf. It began as the San Diego Open way back in 1952 when, as you'll recall, Ted Kroll came away with a three-stroke win over Jimmy Demaret. And in the more modern era of title sponsors, it has had remarkably few -- just two in the past three-plus decades, Buick and Farmers Insurance. That will change. Not this year and not next. But in a growing trend on the PGA Tour, Farmers announced it is bowing out after the 2026 tournament.
The insurance giant will join Honda, which exited after last year's tournament, and Wells Fargo, which will depart after its tournament this May. The advent of LIV Golf has sent tournament purses soaring and is forcing some sponsors out of the game. Long before 2026, there surely will be a denouement of the ongoing PGA Tour-LIV negotiations. But that doesn't mean more sponsors won't cry "Uncle" even before Farmers is done (they came on board in 2010).
Like Honda, Farmers was never chosen for elevated/designated/Signature Event status (Wells Fargo was last year). Therefore, the fields have not been great; in fact, the once-woeful Amex has seen a better collection of golfers than the Farmers the past two years. With Signature Events coming two of three next weeks at Pebble Beach and Riviera, sandwiching the wildly popular Phoenix Tour stop, the Farmers was bound to get squeezed.
At this point, we'll stop piling on to remind you that the tournament starts on Wednesday. As was the case the past two years, there will be a Saturday night prime-time finish on the East Coast as the Tour wisely avoids the NFL conference championship games on Sunday. Tournament organizers can only hope that the big names who are entered will still be around to get major TV time on Saturday night.
Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, defending champion Max Homa, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg highlight a 156-man field that features nine of the top 25 in the world rankings and 22 of the top 50. Other bold-face names include Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Keegan Bradley. Will Zalatoris and Daniel Berger will continue on the comeback trail from back injuries. Eight of the 10 DP World Tour graduates are entered, including Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk. In an indication of how the quality of the field falls off after the very top, all 30 Korn Ferry grads will play, led by the No. 1 finisher, Ben Kohles. And, finally, here's the probable/possible/maybe final mention of Michael Block, who has qualified for the second week in a row thanks to winning the local Section championship -- and a section that is local to two consecutive PGA Tour events. Last year's history-making champion, 20-year-old Alabama sophomore Nick Dunlap, was in the Farmers field on a sponsor's invite even before Sunday. But he has withdrawn, saying in a statement released by the Tour that he wanted to return home to Alabama to be with friends, family and teammates. He did not elaborate.
The first three tournaments of 2022 were big-time birdie-fests. That all changes this week. Last year, Homa won at 13-under and only three players hit double digits. Two years ago, Luke List won at 15-under in a playoff over Zalatoris. In 2021, Patrick Reed was the only player to reach double digits, running away at 14-under par. The South Course, which will be in play for three of the four rounds, is a mere 235 yards shy of 8,000. The back-nine comes within 38 yards of 4,000. The track was actually a little shorter for the 2021 U.S. Open at 7,685 yards, but it played as a par-71 when Jon Rahm won at a minuscule 6-under. This week, we should expect a winning score in the low teens.
Seven of the 10 par-4s on the South are at least 450 yards. The shortest par-5 is 564 and two exceed 615. Three of the par-3s are 200-plus and two are 225-plus. Really, you could make a case that there's only one short hole on the entire course -- the 389-yard second. Traditionally, the 505-yard 12th and 480-yard 15th are the biggest brutes. Last year, the 437-yard 14th joined them, accenting that the back-nine is harder than the front. The sheer length of the course is not the only challenge; while the golfers will be standing far back in the fairway for their approach shots -- and they are narrow fairways, at that -- they will be aiming at some of the smallest greens on Tour. The tricky poa annua surfaces average only 5,000 square feet. Only two courses on the PGA Tour are at least 7,500 yards long with greens no larger than 5,000 square feet -- Torrey Pines South and Muirfield Village for the Memorial. If the golfers miss the greens, they are then faced with chipping from the gnarly kikuyu grass, which we'll also see in the rough at Riviera. Water is in play on just one hole, but it can be a game-changer on the 570-yard 18th.
The North course is some 500 yards shorter at 7,258/par-72 and is far easier, though a bit harder since a Tom Weiskopf redesign a few years back. Still, anyone hoping to contend must crush the North course and hope to survive the South. The 486-yard 18th on the North is often among the hardest holes on the entire PGA Tour. The greens are a bit larger than at the South at an average of 6,000 square feet, and they are bentgrass.
Needless to say, there's a premium on distance this week. Maybe not as much as with driver but long irons. The golfers won't see the rainy conditions they endured three years ago, but it will be on the cooler side on the weekend and it's always hard to imagine a short hitter emerging on one of the longest courses in the world. That said, Reed won in those difficult conditions, though his short game is something few others possess.
As for the weather, there was heavy rain and flooding in San Diego early in the week and it's not known how that will affect play starting Thursday. But the four days of the tournament should be dry. Temperatures will be in the low 70s the first two days before cooling into the low 60s on the weekend. Winds are forecast to be moderate all tournament.
DFS Strategy Tip: With the golfers playing the North either Wednesday or Thursday, it's a smart play to turn to a one-round game, Showdown or Tiers, and load up all six spots with guys playing the North that day.
Key Stats to Winning at Torrey Pines South
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approach from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2023 – Max Homa
2022 – Luke List
2021 – Patrick Reed
2020 – Marc Leishman
2019 – Justin Rose
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 - Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
Champion's Profile
In the past four years, the winning score has fallen between 13- and 15-under. Even though the South course is so long, driving distance has not correlated to success over that span. Now, we want to be clear on that: The longest hitters have not done the best here, but that doesn't mean the short hitters have. You have to have *some* distance this week. Let's call it "medium" distance. Last year, Homa ranked 55th in driving distance and you had to go all the way to seventh place and Rahm to find someone who cracked the top-25. Even two years ago, the long-hitting List ranked only 12th in distance. Clearly, the high finishers balanced accuracy off the tee, which made their approaches at least a little bit easier. Homa ranked ninth in fairways hit, 1st in SG: Approach, T3 in greens in regulation and a more-than-acceptable ninth in SG: Putting. The runner-up, Bradley, led the field in SG: Putting and ranked 10th in SG: Approach. So, as we always say, there certainly is more than one way to win a golf tournament, even on a long course. No matter what happens off the tee, there will be long iron shots. Driving accuracy and GIR numbers are annually among the lowest on Tour, which brings deftness around the greens into play. A check of course history over the past five or so years shows that a lot of guys do well here year after year, maybe more so than any other course. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 272.5, which is 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Collin Morikawa - $10,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1100)
Morikawa is one of quite a few top guys who have repeatedly done well at this tournament. We're skipping the top two guys on the DK board, Schauffele, who has had only one top-10 here, and Cantlay, who hasn't had any. Morikawa tied for third last year and for fourth two years back. At a course that asks for some distance but mandates accuracy, and where you can contend without elite putting, it's a good fit for him. Morikawa tied for fifth at the Sentry in his lone 2024 start so far. He ranked No. 5 in our model.
Max Homa - $10,100 (+1200)
Four of the California native's six career PGA Tour wins have come in his home state and another one has come at uber-long Quail Hollow in the 2019 Wells Fargo. Homa has finished top-15 or better in his past nine worldwide starts going back to last summer's Scottish Open, and he won a DP World Tour event in South Africa in November. Homa landed at No. 8 in our model, but it's set up to only consider rounds on the PGA Tour.
Sungjae Im - $9,900 (+2200)
Nobody thinks of Im as a long hitter, and he's not. But he's not overly short either, and he is highly accurate. That's why he's finished fourth and sixth here the past two years. With a tie for 25th last week at the Amex, Im has finished in the top-25 in eight straight tournaments going back to last summer's Wyndham.
Jason Day - $9,500 (+2200)
Day is a two-time Farmers champion. He's finished runner-up, too. He has three other top-10s, including the past two years. Frankly, our model doesn't rank him nearly as high as the other Tier 1 picks, but the course history is simply to strong to bypass.
Tier 2 Values
Keegan Bradley - $8,900 (+3000)
Bradley is another guy whose game is a good fit for this course, and it shows in his results. He was runner-up to Homa last year and has two other career top-5s at the Farmers. Bradley got off to a great start in 2024 with a runner-up at the Sony two weeks ago.
Sahith Theegala - $8,700 (+3500)
When you consider that Torrey Pines puts a premium on hitting the fairway and that Theegala's biggest trouble spot, this doesn't seem like a good play. But the kinda-nearby Pepperdine alum who is a crowd favorite in Southern California (and other places) tied for 25th two years ago and for fourth last year. Theegala opened with a 66 last year, tied for the second-best round of the week, but wasn't able to break 70 the final three days. Even with high fairway inaccuracy, he ranks inside the top-20 in our model.
Sepp Straka - $8,600 (+4000)
It doesn't seem that Straka has been around very long, but he's already played this tournament four times -- and that's with skipping last year. He's finished in the top-16 twice, including when he debuted here in 2019. And the Austrian is a far better player now, having climbed into the top-20 in the world rankings. Straka is coming off a tie for 12th at the Sentry after a runner-up at the Hero World Challenge.
Will Zalatoris - $8,000 (+5000)
We have been waiting on Zalatoris to get some indication where he stands in his recovery from season-ending back surgery last year. After tying for 20th at the micro-field Hero World Challenge in December and missing the Sony cut two weeks ago, he tied for 34th at the Amex. You wouldn't think that tournament would bring out his strengths, though he did tie for sixth there two years ago. The Farmers should be a better fit, and has been, with a playoff loss to List two years ago. At $8,000, we don't need a similarly high finish. But it appears Zalatoris is heading in that direction.
Tier 3 Values
Luke List - $7,800 (+6500)
Again, a player with a game that fits this tournament and a track record to back it up. List followed up his monumental win here in 2022 with a top-25 in his title defense. He has two other top-12s through a years. A repeat of a top-25 with a price of $7,800 would be quite nice. List opened 2024 with a T22 at the Sentry and a T66 at the Sony. Okay, nothing great. But past performance just weighs mightily for us, even though our model places him somewhere around 40th.
Ryo Hisatsune - $7,500 (+10000)
We turned to the 21-year-old Japanese sensation last week at a similar price, and he tied for 11th. The two Torrey Pines tracks might be harder to master on a first go-round than the three in the Amex rotation, but this graduate from the DP World Tour clearly has some game. We tend to think of Japanese players as shorter hitters playing on shorter courses back home, but Hisatsune lands almost in the middle at driving distance in this field. And our model places him at No.32 over all.
Michael Kim - $7,300 (+9000)
At 5-11 and 165 pounds, Kim is not a big guy. But he's a sneaky long hitter, having ranked in the top-60 on Tour in driving driving distance last year. He's made the cut here five of his past six visits, with one top-25. And he's made six straight cuts overall going back to last year, the best finish being last week's T6 at the Amex. That moved Kim into the top-100 OWGR for the first time, right at No. 100.
Austin Eckroat - $7,100 (+11000)
Eckroat is coming off a top-25 last week at the Amex, and he also made the cut the week before at the Sony. Our model says he's a top-10 guy on approach play from 200+ yards, one of the two or three most important metrics this week. In fact, Eckroat is in the upper half in this field in all of this week's key stats over the past 24 rounds. He missed the cut in both previous Farmers starts, but he has become a far better player over the past 12 months.
Long-Shot Values
Joseph Bramlett - $6,800 (+30000)
We found the entire collection of $6,000s very challenging this week. But since we need four, we'll start with the big-hitting Bramlett. He has made the cut here four years running, two of them top-20s, including last year's tie for 13th. Bramlett did not play the second half of 2023, presumably injured though one was never disclosed. He returned to tie for 52nd at the Sony before missing the cut last week at the Amex.
Doug Ghim - $6,800 (+25000)
Ghim does well in our model thanks to middle-of-the-road distance combined with high accuracy. Putting has always been his big trouble spot, but maybe he can get away with that this week (famous last words!). He's made the cut in three of his five Farmers starts, including a tie for 20th, though he missed the cut last year.
Joel Dahmen - $6,800 (+35000)
Like Ghim, Dahmen is a brutal putter -- remember when he missed a five-footer on Friday two weeks ago at the Sony to keep almost 20 guys inside the cut line? But Dahmen is also like Ghim in that he is medium long, and highly accurate off the tee and with his irons. He can play well at the Farmers, even though he's done it only once in five prior visits. That was a tie for ninth in 2019. Our model places Dahmen well inside the cut line.
Peter Malnati - $6,300 (+60000)
We promise to always provide at least one pick at $6,500 or under, and here he is ... one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour. Somehow, after missing Farmers cut after Farmers cut for years, Malnati has turned in top-25s the past three years, including a top-10 in 2021. How does he do it? With one of the best putting/short game combinations on Tour. That said, Malnati has missed both his cuts to start 2024.
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