DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

Purse: $20M 
Winner's Share: $4M 
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner 
Location: Orlando, Fla. 
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge 
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
2024 champion: Scottie Scheffler

Tournament Preview

Usually the preview of a big tournament such as the Arnold Palmer Invitational focuses on all the top players who are in the field. And we will get to them. But with signature events coming fast and furious -- this is the fourth one already in 2025 -- and virtually all the best players entering all of them, the runup to Bay Hill was more notable for who wouldn't be playing.

Word leaked a day before the field was published Friday that Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler -- the two biggest stars who had not qualified -- would surprisingly not get any of the four sponsor's exemptions.

Instead, we learned a day later, they went to four international players in Justin Rose, Mackenzie Hughes, Min Woo Lee and Rafael Campos.

It's true that Spieth had not been a regular visitor to Bay Hill -- far from it, with only one career start in the tournament before it became a Signature Event. But Spieth remains on the short list of biggest needle-movers in the game, and the PGA Tour needs all the needle-moving it can get these days. Fowler was perhaps the more curious omission, since not only had he been a regular entrant in the tournament, he also had a personal relationship with Palmer before the beloved golf figure passed away in 2016 and since then Fowler once served as an unofficial ambassador of the tournament.

Some also viewed Gary Woodland as a slight, considering he has been on the comeback trail following brain surgery more than a year ago.

"At the end of the day," said Sam Saunders, Palmer's grandson and on the committee to pick exemptions, "it's who's getting the ball in the hole the fastest that are the ones who get the opportunities. You can't make everybody happy with exemptions. So you try to just do it as fair and balanced as possible."

There are surely some holes in that quote, but what's done is done.

Okay, now to who is here. It's all the usual suspects -- 45 of the top-50 in the world rankings, and that includes Xander Schauffele, who'd been out since the season-opening Sentry while battling a rib injury. The API this will mark the first time in 2025 that the big three -- Scottie Scheffler, Schauffele and Rory McIlroy -- are in the same field.

Since some of you might already have said, "Hey, it's really a big four," we'll add that, yes, Ludvig Aberg is entered as well in the 72-man field.

As a reminder, the cut will the top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead.

Bay Hill is traditionally among the hardest courses the golfers will see all year, ranking in the top-10 six of the past seven years. In each of the past two years, it ranked 10th. Scheffler did get to 15-under, a high winning score, though he was five clear of runner-up Wyndham Clark. Two years ago, Kurt Kitayama won at 9-under and in 2022 it was Scheffler at 5-under.

At 7,400-plus yards, Bay Hill is kind of long, but it is a par-72. There are some very long holes. All four par-3s are 200-plus yards and there are five par-4s over 450, including the famed 458-yard 18th. The 480-yard ninth was the hardest hole on the course a year ago. All that means long iron play is important. That also tells us something about the par-5s. Three of the four are under 575 yards, one a mere 511, all are gettable in normal conditions and the golfers probably must make a big dent in them if they hope to win. In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau shot 10-under on the par-5s and just 1-under on the rest of the course.

They widened the fairways in 2015, so golfers can really let fly off the tee, though water is in play on half the holes. The greens are large at an average of 7,500 square feet and fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter, and most of the golfers will continue to do their happy dance on their beloved bermudagrass surface.

Since and extremely high percentage of the field will make the cut, that gives you a much greater chance to get all six of your guys through to the weekend (but of course the same goes for your opponents). That lends support to an imbalanced lineup approach because numerous $6000s will make the cut. So if you want to get two or even three of the top guys in your lineup, don't fear dipping down low to fill it out.

As for the weather, after a windy Thursday in which the temperature is not forecast to hit 70, things should calm down and warm up to near 80 he next three days. Showers are forecast for Sunday, but that's still a long way off for it to be a certainty.

API Interesting Factoids: Bay Hill marks the beginning of the Open Qualifying Series in the United States for the 153rd Open at Royal Portrush in July. There is only one spot for a golfer not already exempt. Future PGA Tour events with Open berths on the line are the Memorial and Canadian Opens, with one each, and the Scottish Open the week before Portrush, with three available.

API Fun Factoids: Gary Koch, formerly with NBC, was a two-time winner, in 1977 and 1984, and Paul Azinger, also formerly with NBC, won in 1988. Koch still holds the final-round scoring record of 63 set in 1984. Palmer himself won the tournament in 1971, when it was called the Florida Citrus Invitational and played at Rio Pinar Country Club. Palmer hauled in all of $30,000 for his one-stroke win over Julius Boros.

Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling 
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225 yards
• Par-5 Efficiency 550-600 yards

Past Champions

2024 - Scottie Scheffler 
2023 - Kurt Kitayama 
2022 - Scottie Scheffler 
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau 
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari 
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman 
2016 - Jason Day 
2015 - Matt Every

Champion's Profile

In the past eight years, the winning score exceeded 12-under only twice -- Scheffler at 15-under last year and McIlroy at 18-under in 2018. And as we said, Scheffler won by five. Two years ago, Kitayama won at 9-under He had a pretty good template for victory -- he ranked tied for first in fairways hit and greens in regulation at about 70 percent for each, and also ranked second in SG: Putting. And this was with Kitayama pretty much butchering the par-5s. He scored only 4-under on those 16 holes. But he played the par-3s in 3-under, which is outstanding.

We mentioned above how DeChambeau got 10 of his 11-under strokes on the par-5s. Last year, Scheffler got 12 of his 15-under on the par-5s. And get this: In 2022, Scheffler shot 11-under on the par-5s and won at 5-under, meaning he played the par-3s and 4s in 6-over!

As easy as the par-5s are, that's how hard the par-3s are, all 200 yards or more. In 2021, DeChambeau beat Lee Westwood by one stroke, but he shot 4-under on the par-3s compared to Westwood's 2-over.

This year, the over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 277.5 -- 10.5 under par. That was the same as last year.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $12,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +320)
Scheffler has yet to look like his former self in 2025, though T9, T25 and T3 in your first three starts would be cherished by 90 percent of the Tour. This may be Scheffler's best track among many places he has excelled, with two wins sandwiching a tie for fourth the past three years.

$9,000-$9,900

Ludvig Aberg - $9,900 (+1600) 
Bay Hill aligns nicely with Aberg's booming game off the tee. It could come down to how well his putter is working. It has not been great this season, though of course Aberg already has a victory in 2025. We may see gamers pivot to him to save a few bucks instead of Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Aberg has finished T24 and T25 in his first two starts at the API.

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,300 (+2500) 
Matsuyama has not registered a top-10 in five starts since his season-opening win at the Sentry. That's not necessarily unusual or a concern. He has finished top-20 here three of the past four years, a period that partially overlaps with Matsuyama's old neck and back issues. In the weakest part of his game, putting, he's ranked an impressive 34th on Tour this season.

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,100 (+3000) 
Fleetwood missed the cut here in 2024 but has three top-10s through the years, with a best of T3 in 2019. He has quietly run off 11 straight worldwide top-25s going back to last summer's PGA Tour playoffs, with some of those results far better -- like his T5 last time out at the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.

$8,000-$8,900

Sungjae Im - $8,900 (+4000) 
Im has never finished worse than 21st here in six tries, with a tie for 18th last year. He has already made seven starts in 2025, though he got the weekend off in his past two tournaments (MCs). Im is ranked top-25 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Sg: Putting.

Keegan Bradley - $8,400 (+5000) 
Bradley ranks 12th in our model thanks to an all-around game without any big weakness this season -- and that includes putting (ranked 116th). That's about where he finished at Bay Hill from 2021-23: T10, T11 and T10 again.

$7,000-$7,900

Taylor Pendrith - $7,900 (+5000) 
The Canadian is off to a strong with two top-10s and a top-15 already in 2025. It's a little hard to believe after you look at his putting numbers -- he's ranked 159th on Tour. This was a guy who ranked fifth on Tour last season. Once he turns that around, and he should, great things could happen. Because Pendrith is among the best off the tee, ranked third on Tour.

Akshay Bhatia - $7,800 (+7000) 
This is a great price for a golfer who finished T9 at the previous signature event at Torrey Pines -- and then finished T9 again at Mexico. Bhatia is among the most accurate drivers on Tour and rank 12th in SG: Putting. That explains why he's ranked 26th in bogey avoidance. This will be Bhatia's Bay Hill debut.

Adam Scott - $7,500 (+7500) 
Scott has played three times so far in 2025 and they've all been signature events. He has two top-25s. Scott is ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Approach and is first overall in par-5 scoring.

$6,000-$6,900

Cam Davis - $6,400 (+15000) 
After missing the cut in his first three trips to Bay Hill, Davis figured some things out and tied for 18th last year. He already has a top-5 (at Pebble) and two other top-20s in 2025. Davis is ranked 25th on Tour in SG: Approach and second in par-5 scoring.

Max Homa - $6,300 (+12000) 
This pick is not for the faint of heart, surely not for cash game players. Homa is amid a swoon we had never seen from him, which is why he's all the way down here. But if there's any place that starts to turn him in the right direction, it might be Bay Hill. Homa has played the course five times and finished top-25 every time, including T8 last year. There really is no statistical evidence to support this pick, only a stellar course history and the fact that the vast majority of the field will make the cut.

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