This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
DELL TECHNOLOGIES CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the Winner
Location: Norton, Mass.
Course: TPC Boston
Yardage: 7,342
Par: 71
2017 champion: Justin Thomas
Tournament Preview
Boston has been a big part of the PGA Tour over the past half century. There was a tournament known under various names, including the New England Classic, from 1969 to 1998. Dell arrived five years later, and it has been a playoff event every year since they began contesting for the FedEx Cup in 2007. But after this year, the Boston Tour stop will go away. Sort of. While this is the final year of the Dell Championship, with the playoffs shrinking from four events to three beginning next year, TPC Boston will fold into the rotation for The Northern Trust. New York and Boston will alternate as the site, with the tournament returning to Massachusetts in 2020 and again in 2022. This will also will be the final year of the very popular Monday finish on a holiday weekend, as future PGA Tour seasons will conclude before Labor Day.
For a modern tournament, one that's been around for only 15 years, the Dell's list of champions is laden with superstars: Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy (twice), Justin Thomas (last year), Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott are all former winners, and all but one of them will be back this year. Fowler will miss a second straight playoff event with an oblique injury, and his status for the Tour Championship, not to mention the Ryder Cup, is coming into question. Only one other golfer in the top 100 of the point standings won't play this week, and that's Francesco Molinari, who as far as we know is not injured and is just taking a pass. With a 98-man field, this will be perhaps the easiest week to hit 6-for-6 in DFS play. So don't necessarily consider a guy just because he has made a lot of cuts here through the years -- more than 70 percent of the field makes the cut. After this week there are no more cuts, for either the 70-man BMW Championship or 30-man Tour Championship.
This traditionally is the easiest track the golfers will see during the playoffs. It ranked 28th in 2017-18, middle of the road among the 50 PGA Tour courses. Thomas won last year at 17-under, but in the three previous years (won by McIlroy, Fowler and Chris Kirk), the winning score was 15-under each time. The fairways are pretty wide, the rough isn't all that penal and Arnold Palmer designed this course in 2001 with his attack-mode style of play in mind. Thomas is an aggressive player, as is McIlroy. That's not the only way to win this week, but we'll be targeting those types of golfers in the Value Picks below.
There are a couple interesting characteristics about TPC Boston. For one, it closes with a par-5 and, at a mere 530 yards, it was the easiest hole on the course last year, with 17 eagles. There's also a drivable par-4, the 353-yard 4th hole, which was the second easiest hole and notched five eagles. There's another easy par-5 at No. 2 (542 yards). So, while we often see gamers get concerned if their guys get off to a slow start, this is one week where it will be warranted, with two of the easiest three holes on the course coming within the first four holes. The two hardest holes appear early on the back nine, long par-4s at No. 12, which produced only 24 total birdies last year, and No. 14 (27 birdies).
Weather-wise, there is an excessive heat warning for the Boston area on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is still expected to be sizzling on Thursday before cooling for the weekend. Lastly and most importantly, it could be windy, and players have talked in the past how that makes the course far tougher.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Boston (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: tee to green
• Driving distance/strokes gained off the tee
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Birdie or better percentage
Past Champions
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Chris Kirk
2013 - Henrik Stenson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Webb Simpson
2010 - Charley Hoffman
2009 - Steve Stricker
2008 - Vijay Singh
Champion's Profile
Let's take a look at the past seven winners and their ranking in strokes gained; putting: Thomas was 8th, McIlroy 7th, Fowler 2nd, Stenson 10th, McIlroy 2nd, Simpson 1st. The worst of that bunch, Stenson, if we can call him that, was first in greens in regulation. The greens traditionally have been the fastest the golfers will see all season. As for scrambling, all but one of those seven winners finished top-10 in the field, too (McIlroy, T41 in 2016). With the fairways wide and the rough not too thick, big hitters have had the freedom to let fly. But as you see, shorter hitters have won here before, and there is no single type of player to target this week.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $11,400 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
Thomas arrives as the defending champion. He finished top-10 in his past three starts, all of them big events. He of course won the Bridgestone, then followed that with a close call at the PGA (T6) and a tie for eighth last week at The Northern Trust. Thomas has learned to control his aggressiveness -- that's what elevated his game to elite -- but he still takes his chances. Thomas is ranked third on Tour in birdie or better percentage and he's 10th in driving distance.
Brooks Koepka - $11,000 (12-1)
Koepka showed last week that he cares for more than just the majors as he tied for eighth. This is his fourth go-round at TBC Boston, and he's improved every visit, going from a missed cut to a tie for 57th to a tie for 18th last year. Koepka is ranked sixth in birdie-or-better percentage, and it should be bombs away for him this week.
Jason Day - $10,400 (16-1)
Day still leads the Tour in both strokes gained: around the green and SG: putting. He's been dancing around contention for the past couple of months, with five straight top-20s but no single-digit finishes. Day has six top-15s here through the years, though last year he tied for 25th. He's ranked ninth in birdie-or-better percentage.
Jordan Spieth - $10,000 (18-1)
For all his putting troubles this season, Spieth is ranked 12th in birdie-or-better percentage, and his putting continues to improve -- he was 24th in the field last week and is up to 127th in strokes gained: putting on the season. Spieth finished second to Thomas here last year and was tied for fourth in 2013.
Tier 2 Values
Adam Scott - $8,900 (25-1)
We had a big whiff on Scott last week. The Aussie, however, didn't miss much for a second straight tournament, again finishing in the top 5 with a tie for fifth. Scott did it by returning to his broomstick putter and, remarkably, he led the field in putting for the week. Scott won the inaugural Dell Championship back in 2003, long before it was a playoff event, but more recently he has four other top-10s at TPC Boston.
Jon Rahm - $9,100 (25-1)
Rahm will likely fly under the radar this week. Not only do we expect low ownership in DraftKings, but we suspect Rahm's temper will be muted at a course that favors his aggressive style of play. He tied for fourth here last year. Rahm is ranked second in strokes gained: off the tee and is fifth in birdie-or-better percentage.
Patrick Cantlay - $9,000 (25-1)
Another week, another good showing for Cantlay, who tied for eighth at Ridgewood to give him four top-15s in his past five starts. Nobody thinks of Cantlay as an aggressive golfer, but there is a place for steady this week when you're as good as Cantlay. He tied for 13th in his Boston debut last year. Cantlay is ranked 11th in strokes gained: off the tee and a surprising-to-us 23rd in birdie-or-better percentage.
Patrick Reed - $8,400 (30-1)
When a guy finishes top-6 at a tournament three years running, that's a trend that's hard to ignore. Perhaps the biggest weakness in Reed's game is his accuracy off the tee, and that is blunted thanks to the wide fairways at TPC Boston. Reed has a deft scrambling touch, ranking fourth in strokes gained: around the green. His all-around aggressiveness has him ranked 16th on Tour in eagles.
Tier 3 Values
Phil Mickelson - $8,200 (40-1)
If there's a living, breathing example of aggressiveness on the PGA Tour, it's this guy. The friendly fairways set up the rest of Mickelson's game. He tied for sixth here last year (when he wasn't playing particularly well), and he won back in 2007. Mickelson is fourth on Tour in birdie or better, 14th in strokes gained: approach and second in SG putting.
Tyrrell Hatton - $7,700 (60-1)
A frustrated Hatton walked into a local New Jersey golf store last Saturday night, plopped down $172 for a new putter and went out and shot 7-under 64 on Sunday at The Northern Trust. He tied for 20th, his fifth top-20 in his past seven worldwide starts, gaining nearly three strokes on the field in putting on Sunday. This will be Hatton's maiden visit to Boston.
Gary Woodland - $7,500 (60-1)
Woodland wasn't a good play last week; he's a better play at TPC Boston, where he's cashed top-20 the past three years. Last week's T48 at Ridgewood snapped a streak of three straight top-25s, one of which saw Woodland flirting to win the PGA Championship. He is third in strokes gained: off the tee and 21st in tee to green. Woodland's putting will prevent a victory, but he's still a respectable 56th in birdie-or-better percentage.
Kevin Na - $7,400 (60-1)
The worst part of Na's game is off the tee. Good thing the rest of his game is rock solid, and he's on form with top-20s at the PGA and Northern Trust. And don't forget his win at the Greenbrier last month. Despite sitting well back after his tee ball, Na is 32nd in strokes gained: approach, plus seventh in strokes gained: around and 22nd in SG putting. He's also 35th in birdie-or-better percentage. Na notched his best-ever Boston finish last year, a tie for sixth.
Long-Shot Values
Byeong Hyun An - $7,000 (125-1)
An is a stellar golfer in every way but one: putting. Last week he ranked 11th in strokes gained: off the tee, sixth in SG tee to green and even fourth in SG around. But he tied for 40th on the leaderboard because was 80th in putting. Even a bad week of putting instead of a horrible week would've landed him in the top 25. For the season, An is 17th on Tour in SG tee to green and 20th off the tee. Those are outstanding numbers. An has twice been a runner-up this year, once to Bryan DeChambeau at the Memorial and recently at the Canadian Open.
Jamie Lovemark - $6,900 (125-1)
Lovemark is a real conundrum for gamers. He has missed just two cuts since January, and he has seven top-25s in that span, but he is definitely underperforming. Last week was a case in point. Lovemark spun twin 66s to carry the lead into the weekend only to tumble with a 73-74 finish. He is 164th in final-round scoring, and nothing is more maddening than seeing your guy blow it all on Sunday. But one of these days, Lovemark will finish strong.
Danny Lee - $6,800 (150-1)
Lee has had one roller coaster of a season. He's made fewer than half his cuts: 14-of-29. But in those 14 cashes, he notched eight top-25s, three of them top-10s. You could get whiplash looking at his numbers. Lee has been more stable the past month-plus, making four cuts in a row. The first three were top-25s and last week he tied for 34th. And get this: With his season in danger of ending last Sunday, Lee birdied the first five holes on the back nine to just sneak into the top 100 at No. 98.
Keith Mitchell - $6,500 (250-1)
We're near the very bottom of the DraftKings board, but why not? The chances of making the cut are great this week -- for anyone. Mitchell has had an impressive rookie season, and needs another good week to climb into the top-70 (he's 78th). His will go at it like he always plays: attack. Mitchell is ninth in driving distance, sixth in strokes gained: off the tee and even 16th in birdie-or-better percentage.
