DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

There's a lot to like about this tournament, beginning with storied Pebble Beach, one of the most famous golf courses in the world and home to those magnificent ocean views and majestically rugged coastlines. And there's even the somewhat occasionally fun component of seeing big stars from sports and entertainment out of their element being just like us.

But the tournament certainly is an acquired taste, with 156 pros and 156 amateurs taking 156 hours to play a round of golf (We kid!). It' a shame, because there is a stellar field, led by Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson, and they will share top billing with Bill Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Wayne Gretzky, Justin Timberlake, Bill Belichick and many more.

The first three days will be a visual slog for all of us, with no cut for the pros or the amateurs until Sunday. And this year, it will be especially "sloggy," with storms hitting the Monterey Peninsula from now until they're forecast to end Friday. Pebble shares the action with two other sub-7,000-yard courses, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, Thursday to Saturday before it's the sole track for the final round. Even though Pebble has hosted many U.S. Opens, course conditions are far tamer for the AT&T because, well, nobody wants to make celebrities cry - that's never a good look. When the weather is benign, these are three of the easiest courses on Tour. But with the forecast as it is, it might be hard to complete three rounds by Saturday, and not everyone will be happy playing in these conditions.

We can look back just three weeks to the CareerBuilder to remind ourselves who thrives and who cowers in rainy, chilly weather -- and this will be nastier than La Quinta was. Even though the courses are tiny by modern standards, the weather will further favor the longest hitters, though with the tiniest greens on Tour at Pebble, myriad skills will be required to score. We'll take a closer look at what gamers should focus on in the Champion's Profile below.

As for lineup construction, keep in mind that the cut to 60 and ties does not happen until 54 holes, so a missed cut or even two won't be as damaging as it normally is, especially in a cash game. Monterey is clearly the easiest of the three tracks, so if you're looking for a tiebreaker between two golfers, the edge might go to the guy playing Monterey in the expected tougher weather Thursday and Friday. But if there is a clear advantage for one golfer over another, don't let that small difference sway you.

Key Stats to Winning at Pebble Beach

• Greens in regulation
• Approach-shot proximity to the hole
• Scrambling
• Strokes gained putting/putting average (putts per GIR)

Past Champions

2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Phil Mickelson
2011 - D.A. Points
2010 - Dustin Johnson
2009 - Dustin Johnson
2008 - Steve Lowery
2007 - Phil Mickelson

Champion's Profile

Other than 800 yards in length, there are comparisons between Torrey Pines and Pebble -- both are coastal courses with poa annua greens, which, like most putting surfaces, are liked by some golfers, disliked by others. All three courses are short, but will play longer after a very wet winter.

We've seen Dustin Johnson win this tournament twice, with other big hitters thriving. But statistically, we've seen other types of golfers win here, using various combinations of greens in regulation, proximity, scrambling and putting.

Yes, putting takes on more importance than in recent weeks. With the greens so small at Pebble, getting on them from the fairway will be harder and, when missed, scrambling comes into play. Further, Pebble is among the tougher courses on Tour for sand saves. Five of the last six winners have finished top 10 in GIR: Vaughn Taylor was second in GIR, third in proximity and third in putting average, but 60th in scrambling. Brandt Snedeker was third in GIR, first in scrambling and putting average, but 24th in proximity. Jimmy Walker was sixth in GIR and second in scrambling, but 26th in proximity and 14th in putting average. Snedeker in 2013 was sixth in GIR, scrambling and putting average, while 19th in proximity. None of these four winners was among the top 10 in driving distance or accuracy. While there are various ways to thrive around and on the green, clearly getting on the green in foremost.

Here's one last note that probably means nothing: Since 1965, there have been have only two non-U.S. winners of this tournament (but Graeme McDowell did win the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble).

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)

Spieth has not won this tournament, but he has two top-10s and two top-25s in his four visits. We surely need - and require - something better from the top price in the field. Spieth has been playing well for months, with five straight top-10s going back to autumn. This format is not for everyone, but Spieth says he likes it, and that counts for a lot (plus he said they give him "great food").

Dustin Johnson - $11,800 (8-1)

Throw out Johnson's trunk slam at Torrey Pines two weeks ago; he had just competed the week before in Abu Dhabi and really should've skipped San Diego. He's won here twice, once in awful weather, with four other top-10s. But he was T41 last year, and that certainly won't cut it at $11,800. We are favoring Spieth and Johnson over the No. 3 price in the field, Jason Day ($11,600), for a couple of reasons: We aren't taking three $11,000-plus golfers and Day's history of back trouble gives us pause in chilly, rainy conditions with the potential for multiple stoppages of play.

Brandt Snedeker - $10,000 (15-1)

Snedeker would seem like a slam dunk, with two wins the last four years. But he sandwiched those Ws with an MC in 2014 and a then fell to T35 last year. But he's a great putter and played well at Torrey two weeks ago (T9). Hard to pass him up.

Justin Rose - $9,200 (12-1)

Rose may be the best of the Tier 1 golfers - certainly the best value at nearly $3,000 less than Spieth. On the other hand, Rose also has been slowed by back issues. But he's been fine this year, smartly taking every other week off, and he finished T4 at Torrey after a runner-up at the Sony. Plus, Rose was T6 a year ago in his Pebble debut and is eighth in GIR this season. Here's a good place to point out that we again are bypassing everybody's new go-to guy, Jon Rahm ($9,600). We gave him consideration; we just like four other $9,000-plus golfers better. And we're passing on Phil Mickelson ($9,300), too. He has a good course history and good current form, but he's playing his fourth consecutive week and clearly faded on the back nine last Sunday at Phoenix.

Tier 2 Values

J.B. Holmes - $8,400 (30-1)

Holmes has surely enjoyed success here, with five top-20s through the years, including T11 last year and T10 the year before. And he's surely a big hitter who will enjoy an edge in this weather. But for such a long hitter, Holmes also displays a deft touch on the green, as he's 19th in SGP. His GIR and scrambling numbers are off-the-charts horrible, but he clearly has found a way to thrive at this tournament many times before.

Gary Woodland - $8,000 (40-1)

Woodland is another bomber off the tee who is also a better-than-most 37th in GIR and 26th in scrambling. He hasn't played this tournament since a string of three straight missed cuts from 2009 to '11. But Woodland was on form at Torrey Pines, tying for fourth before a trunk slam last week at Phoenix.

J.J. Spaun - $7,900 (60-1)

With top-10s in his last two starts, we'll bank on a third. The rookie thrived at Torrey Pines, but the former San Diego State star benefited from course knowledge. Here's hoping the similarities between Torrey and Pebble, including the poa annua, translate to Northern California for Spaun. He was seventh in SGP last week at Phoenix and led the field at the Farmers.

Roberto Castro - $7,900 (100-1)

Castro has a miss-the-cut-every-other-year streak going the last five years. And, yes, that logic calls for him to miss the cut this time around. But he was T8 last year and T19 in 2014. Castro also was T28 two weeks ago at Torrey Pines. While he has so-so numbers in GIR, scrambling and SGP, Castro sits T4 in proximity.

Tier 3 Values

Chris Kirk - $7,500 (60-1)

Kirk has all the tools to succeed this week: 20th in SGP, 31st in GIR and 36th in scrambling. It just that some weeks he shows up to play and other weeks he seems disinterested. So, there's that gamble. Kirk skipped Pebble last year and missed the cut the year before, He was runner-up to Snedeker in 2013.

Stewart Cink - $7,500 (Field, 3-1)

Cink is playing this year via his one-time career money list exemption, and he's making the most of it. After sitting out much of last year to be with his ailing wife, both are doing better. Cink is firing to the tune of ninth on Tour in GIR, while treading water on the green (68th in SGP). He was T21 here last year in his first visit since 2010, and he tied for 20th at Torrey two weeks ago. Clearly, the oddsmakers don't like Cink, as he's a Field bet.

Sean O'Hair - $7,300 (80-1)

O'Hair is bound to be a popular pick, having made eight straight Pebble cuts and three straight in 2017. And let's throw in a T12 at the 2010 U.S. Open. He's 31st in SGP and 33rd in GIR.

Richie Werenski - $7,100 (100-1)

The Web.com Tour grad is new to this tournament, but he's coming off a T20 at Torrey two weeks ago and a T9 at the rainy CareerBuilder the week before that. Werenski finds himself 14th in scrambling, T36 in proximity and 61st in GIR.

Long-Shot Values

Shane Lowry - $7,000 (50-1)

We've been hearing about curious DraftKings pricing, and this seems to be another. To wit: Lowry is only 50-1, a far cry from a $7,000 golfer. Lowry has made the cut the last two years, with a top-25 in his 2015 debut. Tee-to-green play is his strength (28th in GIR) and that should overcome his balky putter, at least getting him to Sunday play.

Matt Jones - $7,000 (100-1)

There's very little to support this pick other than the Aussie was T11 last year, T7 the year before and made the cut the prior two years. Jones has been struggling for more than a year now, but he did tie for 36th last week at Phoenix and wields a decent putter (42nd in SGP).

Cameron Smith - $6,900 (100-1)

The Aussie likely will be a popular selection at this price, especially coming off a T11 here last year. He's made three of his last four cuts, with a T33 at Torrey Pines. Smith is T18 in proximity, 41st in SGP and 45th in GIR.

Steve Stricker - $6,600 (125-1)

Stricker is nearing age 50, and he doesn't play so much anymore, but sign us for one of the game's best short-game performers at a bargain basement price. Stricker missed the cut last year in his first visit in sometime, but is coming off a T42 last week at Phoenix.