This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Purse: $12M
Winner's Share: $2.16M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
2021 champion: Bryson DeChambeau
Tournament Preview
This will be the sixth Arnold Palmer Invitational held without its namesake, who passed away in September of 2016. Thanks to the tournament being repositioned on the PGA Tour calendar, the 120-man field looks a little better than it did last year. Four of the top 10 in the world rankings, 10 of the top 25 and a robust 31 of the top 50 will be on hand. Last year, the tournament was wedged between the WGC-Workday and THE PLAYERS Championships and only three of the top 10 showed up. THE PLAYERS is still on tap next week, but last week's Honda Classic was an easy pass for all the top guys.
In an unusual move, there is an alternate-field event going on this week in Puerto Rico and, because the Bay Hill field is relatively small and packs quality, there are a handful of golfers of note taking part.
At the API, world No. 1 Jon Rahm heads the field, along with 2018 champion Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama. The tournament was dealt a big blow when 2021 champ Bryson DeChambeau withdrew, unable to give it a go because of wrist and hip injuries that also caused him to skip Riviera. No. 2-ranked Collin Morikawa also is not entered, and it certainly appears he could play less this season than any other top-10 golfer. Other players of note who will tee it up in Florida are 2017 winner Marc Leishman, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Sam Burhttps://youtu.be/4uezUwRXa9ons, Adam Scott and burgeoning fan favorite Sahith Theegala.
DeChambeau's victory broke a string of five straight international winners after the end of the dominant era of Tiger Woods and Matt Every -- that's a joke, but only sort of. Three years ago, eight of the top nine finishers were internationals and two years ago it was half the top 12. But last year saw many more Americans on the first couple of pages of the leaderboard. That said, there is a heavy influx of Europeans in the field, among them 2020 champion Tyrrell Hatton, course horse Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood, Thomas Pieters and 20-year-old Nicolai Hojgaard, who made his PGA Tour debut last week with a missed cut at PGA National.
Bay Hill is traditionally among the hardest courses golfers will see all year, ranking top-10 four of the past five years. In 2020, it was the absolute hardest, with Hatton winning at 4-under-par, though the weather was more of a factor than usual. It therefore might be prudent to not weigh that year too heavily in your permutations. Francesco Molinari won at 12-under in 2019 and DeChambeau won last year at 11-under -- still no cakewalk.
At 7,400-plus yards, Bay Hill is pretty long, but it is a par-72. There are some very long holes. All four par-3s are 200-plus yards and could be critical in the outcome. There are five par-4s over 450, including the famed 458-yard 18th. That means long iron play is important. That also tells us something about the par-5s. Three of the four are under 575 yards, one a mere 511, all are gettable and the golfers probably must make a big dent in them if they hope to win. In fact, DeChambeau shot 10-under-par on the par-5s and just 1-under on the rest of the course. The fairways were widened in 2015, so golfers can really let fly off the tee, though water is in play on half the holes. The greens are large at an average of 7,500 square feet and fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter, and most of the golfers will continue to do their happy dance on their beloved bermudagrass surface.
More than half the field will make the cut. That gives you a much greater chance to get all six of your guys through all four rounds, and lends support to an imbalanced lineup approach this week because so many below the $7,000 mark will play the weekend.
Weather-wise, temperatures are expected to be in the 80s all four days, with little chance of rain. However, the wind could pick up Friday and onward.
API Factoid I: In years past, pre-2000 champions Robert Gamez, Paul Goydos and Tim Herron were grandfathered into the field, making it 123 deep. But none of them is in this year, leaving things at the usual invitational level of 120.
API Factoid II: Bay Hill marks the beginning of the Open Qualifying Series in the United States. Berths in the Open Championship will go to the three top finishers not already exempt -- and this year it's an extra special one, with the 150th anniversary at St. Andrews. Other PGA Tour events with Open berths on the line are the Canadian Open (two spots), the John Deere Classic (three) and the Barbasol Championship on the eve of the Open (one).
Even More API Factoids: NBC's Gary Koch won this event twice, in 1977 and 1984, and Paul Azinger took home the title in 1988. Koch still holds the final-around scoring record of 63 set in 1984. Palmer himself won it in 1971, when it was called the Florida Citrus Invitational and played at Rio Pinar Country Club. He hauled in all of $30,000 for his one-stroke win over Julius Boros.
Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach -- especially from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225
Past Champions
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
In the past five years, the winning score exceeded 12-under only once -- McIlroy at 18-under. Leishman was 11-under, Molinari at 12, Hatton at 4 and DeChambeau at 11. Last year, DeChambeau led the field in driving distance and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and was second in both greens in regulation and SG: Tee-to-Green, yet was only 30th in SG: Around-the-Green and 21st in Putting. As mentioned above, he was 10-under on the par-5s. Molinari was only 4-under on the par-5s but Leishman was 11-under -- meaning he played the other 60 holes at par. It doesn't happen that way every year, but the winning score has been low most of the time of late, putting a greater emphasis on par-5 birdies (or eagles) and par-3 pars (or birdies). Molinari wasn't especially long but he did rank third in driving accuracy, which was good enough to be sixth in GIR, fifth in scrambling and fourth in putting. Eight straight winners had finished in the top-eight in putting until Hatton and DeChambeau were further back. As easy as the par-5s are, that's how hard the par-3s are, all 200 yards or more. DeChambeau beat Lee Westwood last year by one stroke, but he shot 4-under on the par-3s compared to Westwood's 2-over. In 2019, Molinari was 2-under on the par-3s in a two-shot win over Matt Fitzpatrick, who was 2-over on the par-3s. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com was 274.5, or 13.5 shots under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $11,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1000)
McIlroy is one of the few big-name guys who comes back to Bay Hill every year -- maybe as an homage to Palmer, maybe because he usually plays well. In the past seven years, McIlroy has six top-11s, including a win in 2018 and nothing worse than T27 (2016). He even is playing better now than he had been entering some of those prior tournaments.
Viktor Hovland - $10,800 (+1800)
The huge greens do a great job of identifying the better putters. Hovland surely isn't thought of in that vein. But he quietly has been doing far better on the greens, ranking 34th this season in Strokes Gained: Putting. Scrambling is still a huge concern. Hovland has finished in the 40s in all three of his Bay Hill starts, but with better putting and his iron play so solid, he should do far better this time around.
Scottie Scheffler - $10,600 (+1600)
Scheffler has been playing as well as anyone of late, with a Phoenix win followed by another top-10 at Riviera. There really is no weakness to his game, but if there were one it would be accuracy off the tee -- and the very wide fairways should take of that problem this week. Scheffler is among the best putters of the top guys, ranking 24th in SG: Putting. He tied for 15th in his lone Bay Hill visit two years ago.
Sungjae Im - $9,900 (+2200)
Im is the perfect golfer for this cour ... oh wait, we said that last week when he flamed out and missed the Honda cut. Brutal. The data still stands despite one bad week. Im finished third in his first two trips to Bay Hill and tied for 21st last year. His conservative style of play is warranted on this stingy track. Im certainly loves Florida, just not last week.
Tier 2 Values
Will Zalatoris - $9,400 (+2500)
Zalatoris is such a poor putter -- ranked 164th in SG: Putting -- that it's hard to envision an outright victory here. But the rest of his game is so good -- ranked first in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green -- that a top-10 is surely in play. Zalatoris finished 10th here last year in his Bay Hill debut.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,200 (+2000)
Fitzpatrick might be playing better than he ever has right now -- and he's already been course horse at Bay Hill for years. He's finished top-10 the past three years, including runner-up to Francesco Molinari in 2019. In his two 2022 starts, Fitzpatrick was sixth at Pebble Beach and 10th at Phoenix. He's ranked second in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, pretty remarkable for a guy averaging only 287 off the tee.
Max Homa - $8,700 (+4500)
Homa has proven time and again his ability to handle big-boy tracks, the latest evidence being a tie for 10th two weeks ago at Riviera. He was also 10th here a year ago and 24th the year before. Homa is ranked only 108th in greens in regulation, but that should improve on these large greens, and he's also 31st in Putting.
Jason Kokrak - $8,400 (+5000)
Kokrak has played great at Bay Hill through the years, even before developing a quality putting stroke. In nine starts, he recorded four top-10s and two other top-25s. last year he finished tied for eighth. Kokrak ranks 22nd on Tour in par-3 200-225.
Tier 3 Values
Keith Mitchell - $8,100 (+4500)
Mitchell has played well here before, with a pair of top-sixes in 2019-20. And now he's playing well everywhere, carving out four top-12s already in 2022. He's ranked third on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and 15th in Tee-to-Green, and he's a better-than-average putter to boot, ranked 61st. Mitchell is also 31st in par-3 200-225.
Justin Rose - $7,700 (+6000)
Looking at Rose's past three API results -- WD-MC-T63 -- might be misleading. He actually was sitting in the top-10 after two rounds last year when he woke up with a bad back. He tried to give it a go but couldn't continue. This will be his 17th start at Bay Hill, and he has five top-10s with some podium finishes sprinkled in. Even though Rose is now 41, he showed he can still deliver on the long tracks of today, tying for sixth recently at Torrey Pines.
Chris Kirk - $7,500 (+7000)
Kirk continues to impress with the best tee-to-green numbers of his long career, and he is now ranked 18th on Tour in that department after another good showing last week. Kirk finished eighth at Bay Hill last year, and he has four other top-20s here through the years.
Lanto Griffin - $7,100 (+7500)
Griffin is having a good season, having made nine of 10 cuts with four top-25s, three of which have doubled as top-10s. He was third at the Amex and 16th at Phoenix, while also making the weekend at Torrey Pines and Riviera. Griffin doesn't shine in any one area, though he's ranked top-50 in both SG: Approach and Putting, and just outside that in Tee-to-Green. He's made both of his Bay Hill cuts, including a top-25 last year.
Long-Shot Values
Martin Laird - $7,000 (+15000)
Laird won this tournament long ago, way back in 2011. That remains his only top-10 in 11 starts here, yet he has missed only one cut through the years. Putting is preventing that for the 39-year-old Scotsman who continues do deliver in all other facets. He's ranked in the top-60 in every other strokes-gained category, and his an outstanding 20th in Tee-to-Green. Laird is three for three in cuts in 2022, including Torrey Pines, Riviera and a T14 at Phoenix.
Alex Smalley - $6,400 (+25000)
Smalley is pretty long off the tee, and pretty accurate, with better-than-average GIR and Tee-to-Green numbers. He's a very good long iron player, ranking 24th on Tour in GIR from 200+ yards. The Korn Ferry grad has made eight of 12 cuts this season, including four of six in 2022, among them Torrey Pines, Riviera and PGA National.
Danny Willett - $6,400 (+20000)
Willett had a pretty good week at the Honda in his 2022 stateside debut, tying for 48th. He was good in most facets, and not terrible in putting, which is his main trouble spot. The Englishman has made the Bay Hill cut in four of five starts, along with a WD, and all four of those cashes were T31 or better. He is ranked an excellent T42 in GIR from 200+, the same as this next guy ...
Adam Schenk - $6,100 (+50000)
It's hard to recommend a golfer at $6,100 who's playing poorly -- like really poorly, like he's-missed-five-of-six-cuts-in-2022 poorly. But we know Schenk has played well at times (third at the Shriners in the fall), and his numbers on par-3 200-225 and GIR from 200+ are outstanding. Schenk is ranked 30th in SG: Putting and finished 29th in his lone Bay Hill start two years ago. If you pick Schenk and he blows up, don't @ us. Fair warning: Do not try this at home.
