AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap: Spieth Takes Easy Victory

It was during the tail end of 2015 that Jordan Spieth became No. 1 in world. Won the Masters, won the U.S. Open. They said he was the heir apparent to Tiger Woods. But then a funny thing happened: Spieth started going the wrong way, dropping to second … third … fourth … fifth … and last week, sixth. Sixth? SIXTH!

But over four days at Pebble Beach, it was as if Spieth said: Enough already!

Spieth rolled to a bigger-than-it-looked four-stroke victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on Sunday, reinforcing his standing as the Masters favorite just two months before the year's first major. His odds dipped from 8-1 to 6-1 after the win.

Remarkably, Spieth had fallen so far that the victory couldn't even budge him from sixth in the latest rankings released on Monday morning. But he's not only close to fifth, he's not far from No. 1, where Jason Day manages to hang on.

The top six are really bunched – Day, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Hideki Matsuyama and Spieth are separated by less than one and a half points, which, even in the complicated world of the OWGR, is this close. (For those who think Spieth or anyone truly is the heir apparent to Woods, consider that at one point in his career, Tiger was 19 points ahead of Phil Mickelson.)

Any of the six could be No. 1 by the Masters; in fact, Johnson and Matsuyama have a chance to overtake Day this week at Riviera, with Spieth potentially climbing as high as No. 2. All four of them are in the field. Spieth will be the top price on the DraftKings board, rightly so, and still it's hard to see gamers going wrong anytime he plays.

Spieth's decline from the top spot has been well chronicled. As he became an attraction not seen since Woods, he proceeded to make a worldwide cash grab from late 2015 into early 2016, spanning the globe for appearance fees. It admittedly fatigued him and screwed up his entire PGA Tour season.

Spieth learned, took much of this past offseason off and has subsequently strung together a bunch of top-10 showings, including a win in Australia in November. Always among the sport's top putters, Spieth has gotten the rest of his game in form, and he's now first on Tour in greens in regulation. It doesn't take Brandel Chamblee to tell us that first in GIR plus with best clutch putting produces a formidable combination. Spieth was second in strokes gained putting through three rounds at Pebble, but with a six-stroke lead heading into Sunday, he played conservatively and finished the week fourth (and third in GIR).

With a workmanlike 2-under 70 on Sunday, Spieth has broken par in all 16 rounds he's played this year.

There are a lot of good golfers. A case for No. 1 can be made for a number of them. But after Sunday, the strongest case may be made for Spieth.

The oddsmakers think so, and they're pretty smart.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Phil Mickelson

We've been in the minority – we've been down on Mickelson lately. That's a bit of a tough stance to take since he had four top-25s in four starts this season entering Pebble. But he's been overpriced and hasn't paid off, with not even one top-10. At Phoenix, when in semi-contention, he shot 40 on the back nine. At Pebble, priced at $9,300, he ballooned to 44 on the back on Sunday to finish 65th and last among those who made the 54-hole cut. For goodness' sake, he's 46 years old, coming off two sports hernia surgeries and now has played four straight weeks. You going to pick him this week at Riviera as he makes a fifth straight start?

Kelly Kraft

Kraft finished solo second for the biggest cash of his career – by far – and in the process likely secured his card for next season. He was first in GIR and, if he had made some putts (37th in SGP), he could've really pressured Spieth. Kraft's previous best was T5 at the John Deere last year, but he still returned to the Web.com Tour Finals to regain his card. But now, if you look at his past five finishes – T21, T27, MC, T28, 2 – you wonder if Kraft has suddenly flipped a switch. Stay tuned, beginning this week at Riviera.

Jon Rahm

We were not high on Rahm following his breakthrough win at Torrey Pines two weeks ago, and we clearly have been wrong. We thought he'd let down and have distractions after his maiden win at Torrey Pines, but he tied for 16th at Phoenix. And now, with a T5 at Pebble, he has six top-10s in 19 career starts. Rahm is taking this week off, and we're surprised. Riviera is the only PGA Tour course besides Torrey Pines where there's Kikuyu grass in the fairways and rough, and that gnarly grass creates problems for many golfers.

Rob Oppenheim

Sad story, wonderful story. Oppenheim was the guy who was $392 shy of his Tour card last fall when the Web.com Tour Championship was canceled by Hurricane Matthew. Fast forward to last week: He's 37 years old, he got into Pebble as a sponsor invite and the huge New England Patriots fan played the first three rounds in the same group as Bill Belichick. And he played great. He wound up tied for eighth on the week, getting him to the field at Riviera this week. Is he worth your consideration? Probably not. But still a wonderful story.

Pat Perez

It was certainly ominous that Perez, one of the feel-good stories of the young season, withdrew from Phoenix with shoulder woes – the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. But he bounced back at Pebble with a T14, climbing the leaderboard on Sunday. He's of course a West Coast Swing kind of guy and, before missing the Riviera cut last year while injured, had four straight cashes there. But he had only one top-40 finish in that stretch (T13 in 2012), and he'll surely be priced fairly high this week. You'll need a much better showing from him for a return on your investment.

Patrick Reed

Reed tied for 23rd, another guy overpriced for the way he's been playing. He cost $8,300 and you expect more than barely top-25 – you need more if you expect to cash with him in your lineup. Reed has one top-10 in five starts this season, and that came in the limited-field Tournament of Champions. Riviera suits him better than Pebble, but he will face the toughest field of the season and it also will be his third straight week of action. That for a guy who recently admitted fatigue.

Steve Stricker

A short-game and putting specialist cost $6,600 and, to us, that was too good to pass up. He was one of our long-shot value picks. Stricker tied for 23rd (same as Reed) and showed that, two weeks shy of age 50, he still has significant value on shorter courses where putting is at a premium.

Luke Donald

Donald is nowhere near Stricker in age, but same thing: strong short game, good putter, sub-$7,000 price. We didn't have him in our value picks, and that was bad on us. He also tied for 23rd.

Patrick Cantlay

The former top amateur in the world hadn't played on tour since 2014 (back injury), but he made quite a splash in his return. He shot four rounds of par or better to tie for 48th. Cantlay certainly picked a course that suits his game, but still, this is a remarkable accomplishment. He's not in the field at Riviera, but we should learn a lot more from his next outing.

Webb Simpson

Putting wasn't so integral to success two weeks ago in Phoenix and Simpson finished runner-up. At Pebble, where it was, he missed the cut. Simpson can be a valuable lineup addition – but know when to use him, and when not to.

Smylie Kaufman

This guy has just two top-10s since his win at the 2015 Shriners, and he's made only three cuts in six tries this season. After trunk-slamming at Pebble, Kaufman has pulled out of Riviera (he tweeted that he's been playing hurt). The reason he's been getting any #DFS love is because he's part of golf's Rat Pack, along with Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas. He's like the fourth member of the Beatles – the luckiest guy in the world. (If we weren't dating ourselves with the Beatles, we surely were with Rat Pack – Google it.)

RotoWire value picks

Last week: Winner (Matsuyama), three top-10s, 7 top-25s, five missed cuts.

This week: Winner (Spieth), four top-5s, eight top-25s, one MDF, three missed cuts.

We tabbed 16 value picks. Jordan Spieth was playing so well that even the top value of $12,000 did not sway us. But at that price, you pretty much need a top-3 showing for him to pay off. And he did. We also liked high-priced Dustin Johnson ($11,800) and Brandt Snedeker ($10,000). They finished solo third and fourth, respectively, so that was very solid. Our fourth Top Tier guy, Justin Rose at $9,200, didn't pay off with a Sunday slide to T39. Tier 2 pick Gary Woodland ($8,000) was a steal after a T5. J.B. Holmes at $8,400 was a so-so T23, but Roberto Castro and J.J. Spaun missed the cut and that's horrid for Tier 2. We cashed all four of our Tier 3s -- Chris Kirk, Stewart Cink, Sean O'Hair and Rickie Werenski, though O'Hair was an MDF. Our long shots were sweet. Shane Lowry ($7,000, T14), Matt Jones ($7,000, T23) and Steve Stricker ($6,600, T23) scored top-25s. Cameron Smith was an awful MC, even at $6,900. But we'll take three top-25s among four long shots all season long, especially in a 156-player field.