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Texas Children's Houston Open Betting Preview
Following an exciting Florda Swing that finished with Viktor Hovland showing a sign of his old form to win at the Valspar, the PGA Tour heads to Houston for the first of two events in the Lone Star State. Although it's not a signature event, World. No 1 Scottie Scheffler and current FedExCup leader Rory McIlroy headline the field as players ramp up their preparation for The Masters in two weeks. Last year, Stephan Jaeger (45-1 odds) captured his maiden Tour victory by one stroke over Scheffler, Tony Finau, Thomas Detry, Taylor Moore and Alejandro Tosti.
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Course Overview
Par 70, 7,475 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.0
- SG: Approach: 15.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 26.5
- SG: Putting: 3.3
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 10.8
- Driving Distance: 15.8
- Driving Accuracy: 29.5
This is the fifth time Memorial Park is hosting the Houston Open and it's always nice when the Tour visits a public course. One of things that makes it unique is that there are only 21 bunkers throughout the course, making it the fewest of any Tour venues. Playing nearly 7,500 yards as a par-70 with five par-3s and three par-5s, the length of the course stands out as five of the par-4s play at least 490 yards. That's going to put a premium on distance as players will be forced to pull driver often, especially considering that the rough is minimal. Putting stands out as a key metric this week, with the winner ranking fifth or better in the category in all four editions of the event. The winning score has ranged between 10-16 under which shows that this is a challenging test, so I prefer to target those that rank well in bogey avoidance to go along with driving distance and putting.
Course History
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Memorial Park (minimum eight rounds):
- Tony Finau: 68.0
- Scottie Scheffler: 68.4
- Aaron Rai: 68.4
- Stephan Jaeger: 68.6
- Joel Dahmen: 69.2
Finau has feasted at Memorial Park, following up his four-stroke victory in 2023 with a shared runner-up last year after holding the 36-hole lead. He's also done it in different ways, ranking second in putting in 2023 and first from tee to green last year. Finau comes into the event tied for the fourth choice on the board at 30-1 odds and has one top-5 in seven events this year. Looking to defend his title at the same odds he had last year is Jaeger, who has already been in contention to win in the final round twice this year. Although he hasn't been historically known for his putting, he's gained 1.6 strokes per round on the greens the last two years here and has gained over a stroke per round putting in seven of his last 14 tournaments. Combine that with his length off the tee and there's plenty of reasons to think he'll play well here once again.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.98
- Rory McIlroy: 1.70
- J.J. Spaun: 1.46
- Michael Kim: 1.42
- Rico Hoey: 1.35
While the narrative seems to be that Scheffler isn't playing that well, you wouldn't know it by looking at the stats. Sure, he hasn't been the 2024 version of himself but only trails Collin Morikawa in SG: Tee-to-Green for the season. The Texas native has finished T2 in two of his last three appearances here and is the clear favorite at 7-2 odds. A little farther down the leaderboard we find Kim at 35-1, and he's going to tee-it-up for an eighth consecutive week as he looks to secure a spot at Augusta National (currently 52nd in the OWGR and needs to get to top-50). The downside is this isn't a place he's ever played well at with a best finish of T47 in three trips, but we've also never seen him playing this well in past years.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Outright Picks
Aaron Rai (28-1)
We can see from the above list that only Finau has a better scoring here, as Rai has never finished worse than T19 at Memorial Park, highlighted by back-to-back top-10s at the venue. He's also in great form with three consecutive top-15 finishes.
Jacob Bridgeman (45-1)
If you're looking for someone that's trending in the right direction, Bridgeman is your guy. The second-year Tour pro has made huge strides this year with a shared runner-up at PGA National and a solo third last week. He also finished T21 in his debut here last year.
Kevin Yu (75-1)
The strength of Yu's game is his ball-striking, where he ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 29th in approach. That's not what you typically see in the 75-1 range. Yu is in good form with three top-20s across his last five starts.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Lee Hodges (13-2)
Hodges makes his return after skipping the Florida Swing due to a rib injury, and these are generous odds for a player that has four top-10s over his last nine starts and is 18th in SG: Total this year.
Ryan Fox (15-2)
Fox sets up as a good course fit as one of the longer but more inaccurate drivers on Tour, and he's Tour average or better everywhere else. The 38-year-old posted three top-10s over a six-tournament stretch at one point last year and posted a top-20 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago.
Danny Walker (12-1)
Walker is a Tour rookie that started slow with back-to-back missed cuts to start the year, but he's started to find his groove with a T13 in Mexico and a T6 at TPC Sawgrass. The University of Virginia product ranks 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and has flashed good distance off the tee.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sahith Theegala (-110) over Ben Griffin
While it has been an uneventful year thus far for Theegala, this is a great place for him to come to life with his short game prowess. He's made all three of his cuts here, albeit with a best finish of T22. Griffin's main advantage over Theegala is his iron play but that's not a huge factor here, and Griffin has also missed back-to-back cuts.
Andrew Novak (-120) over Harry Hall
Following a breakout 2024 campaign and solid start to the year, Hall has lost his game to an extent. He's missed three of his last five cuts with a best finish of T34, and he's only gained strokes off the tee or on approach once during that stretch. Hall may be the superior short game player, but Novak is solid in that regard and the much better ball striker. I'll lay the extra money on the favorite.
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