2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on March 12, 2024 9:14PM EST

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview

The Florida Swing kicks into full gear with golf's "fifth major" and the PGA Tour's flagship event -- THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

Although a big event, it is not of the Signature variety, so 144 players will be on hand, and there will be a 36-hole cut after which the top 65 players and those tied will play the weekend. The field is headlined by both last year's and last week's winner in Scottie Scheffler, who is unsurprisingly the favorite at 11-2 odds.

Last year, Scheffler -- at 10-1 odds -- cruised to a five-shot win over Tyrrell Hatton for his sixth PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:30 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-72, 7,275 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: THE PLAYERS Championship Winners Since 2018

SG: Off-the-Tee: 26.6
SG: Approach: 22.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 13.6
SG: Putting: 27.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 11.4
Driving Distance: 33.2
Driving Accuracy: 36.8

TPC Sawgrass is one of the most iconic courses that the PGA Tour visits, and it is headlined by the featured island green par-3 17th hole that has led to some dramatic finishes and noteworthy moments. It's certainly not the only hole down the stretch that leads to drama, as the par-5 16th can lead to eagles as well as bogeys with water in play on the approach shot, and then the par-4 18th has water down the entire left side that will test the nerves. As we can see from the stats above, nothing stands out much, as this course doesn't tend to fit one specific style of play, as is the case with most Pete Dye designs. There are only three par-4s that play 470 yards or longer, so I lean slightly towards the straighter hitters over the bombers as there are a lot of doglegs and forced layups off the tee. Approach play is the stat I look at the most, as the top four finishers last year ranked fifth or better in SG: Approach. Not a lot of middle irons will be needed here, so I like to look toward those that approach it well from less than 150 yards and over 200 yards.

Sawgrass Savants

The following players have the lowest scoring average over the last five tournaments at TPC Sawgrass.

Fleetwood pairs the lowest scoring average with four top-30s here over his last five appearances, a stretch that includes a pair of top-10s. Something will have to give between his course history and current form, however, as he ranked dead last in SG: Approach at Bay Hill last week. It's also important to note that nobody in the field has a scoring average in the 60s, showing that not only is the course difficult, but also that it's tough to consistently play well here. Thomas is another player that has fared well at Sawgrass, as the 2021 champion has never missed a cut over eight appearances. He's also had a resurgence this year with four top-15s across five starts. Thomas is tied for the fourth choice on the board at 22-1 odds.

The Proper Approach

These golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Hoge tops the list for a second straight week after leading the field in the category at Bay Hill. Unfortunately, he only beat two players on the greens en route to a share of 12th place. Hoge is coming off a career-best T3 result here a year ago in which only Collin Morikawa gained more shots on approach. He's a quality long-shot option at 65-1 odds. Another player with long odds on is Taylor, who is also coming off a T12 finish last week. The Canadian has won twice since last year's event and ranks 20th in SG: Approach and 19th in putting this season. He doesn't have the best PLAYERS track record with a best finish of T16, but his current form could certainly outweigh that.

THE PLAYERS Championship: Outright Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (35-1)

While course history may not matter here as much as other places, it's hard to ignore Matsuyama's track record, which includes six top-25 finishes across eight appearances. He's in much better form than most of the golfers priced above him.

Shane Lowry (40-1)

Lowry continues to play some of his best golf in Florida, and he is coming off back-to-back top-5 finishes in which he was in the final pairing in both tournaments. He has made the cut here three consecutive years and was seventh in SG: Approach in last year's edition.

Tony Finau (55-1)

Finau elected to skip last week's event at Bay Hill, so he comes in fresher than a lot of the big names in the field. He has ranked top-10 in SG: Approach in four consecutive tournaments while also gaining shots off the tee each of those weeks. Don't sleep on him.

THE PLAYERS Championship: Top-10 Wagers

Brian Harman (11-2)

Harman is coming off a solid week in which he held the 36-hole co-lead. He ultimately finished tied for 12th and was third in SG: Approach. He has posted three top-10s here since 2015, gaining shots off the tee in each of those tournaments due to his superb driving accuracy.

Adam Hadwin (15-2)

Hadwin has been in good form this year with a pair of top-10 finishes over his last five events. He ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green here last year en route to his second straight top-15 result. His steady all-around game fits TPC Sawgrass well.

Stephan Jaeger (10-1)

Jaeger ranks well in numerous statistical categories, most notably being 22nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 24th from tee to green. That has led to two top-5 results over his last five starts, and he should be a top-10 contender with a good putting week.

THE PLAYERS Championship: Head-to-Head Matchups

Sungjae Im (-120) over Tom Kim

Here we have a matchup between a couple players that haven't had their best stuff this year, but I'll side with Im due to Kim having lost shots with his ball striking in back-to-back tournaments. Im showed signs of bouncing back into form at Bay Hill, gaining shots in every Strokes Gained category for the first time all year.

Erik van Rooyen (-110) over Keegan Bradley

van Rooyen has been on a heater over the last several months -- over his last 18 starts he posted a win and 12 top-25 finishes, which is excellent consistency for a matchup target. He also finished T13 in his last appearance here in 2022. Meanwhile, Bradley hasn't recorded a top-10 since losing in a playoff in Hawaii, and he also missed the cut here last year.

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