This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
John Deere Classic Betting Preview
It's John Deere Classic week! One of my favorite tournaments of the year. I'll be in attendance and looking to cash some tickets as the PGA Tour heads to the Quad Cities and TPC Deere Run preceding back-to-back weeks in Scotland. Although Patrick Cantlay was a late withdrawal, two-time event champion Jordan Spieth returns for the first time since 2015, while Sungjae Im (16-1) is the tournament favorite. Last year, Sepp Straka (60-1 odds) won by two shots over Alex Smalley and Brendon Todd for his second Tour victory.
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Course Overview
Par 71, 7,289 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: John Deere Classic Winners Since 2019
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.0
- SG: Approach: 23.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 13.0
- SG: Putting: 14.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 6.5
- Driving Distance: 34.0
- Driving Accuracy: 14.8
Deere Run is a course I know well and it's not long by Tour standards with just three par-4s over 460 yards. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately wide fairways that are tree-lined and surrounded by thick rough. As a result, there's much more of a premium on accuracy over distance, and golfers aren't forced to use driver as much as other courses as a few of the par-4s are forced layups. Simply put, good drives will lead to scoring opportunities and those that are spraying it will struggle to save par. In addition to accurate drivers, I'll also be targeting good wedge players as we'll see a lot of approaches in the 100-150 yard range. The winner has reached at least 21-under in four of the last five, so I'll target birdie makers and quality putters as well.
Deere Run Darlings
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Deere Run over the last five years (minimum two appearances).
- Lucas Glover: 67.2
- Adam Schenk: 67.6
- Brendon Todd: 67.7
- Alex Smalley: 67.8
- Sepp Straka: 67.8
2021 champion Glover tops the list with three top-10s over his last four appearances here. He's excelled with his iron play at the venue, ranking third in SG: Approach twice during that stretch. Although he's been unable to maintain the high level we saw from him last summer in which he won twice, Glover's managed a top-25 in five of his last 10 starts and comes in at 45-1 odds. Another player that's thrived at Deere Run is Smalley, who has made all three of his cuts, notably finishing T2 last year in which he led the field in SG: Approach and tee to green. He enters the week with longshot odds of 110-1 following three consecutive missed cuts, but this is as good of a place for him to get things back on track.
Shotmakers
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Aaron Rai: 1.72
- Davis Thompson: 1.65
- Keith Mitchell: 1.32
- Sungjae Im: 1.26
- Kevin Yu: 1.19
Rai heads this list for a second week in a row and is coming off a T2 finish in Detroit in which he ranked third in SG: Approach. This will be his first trip to the event and considering he ranks in the top-10 this season in approach and driving accuracy, he should be an ideal course fit. Rai is getting the respect from oddsmakers as the third choice at 20-1. Not too far behind him is Mitchell at 30-1, who is also in excellent form from tee to green. Whether or not the putter will cooperate is always a question mark, but he did finish T7 here in 2018 despite losing strokes on the greens. Mitchell's only win came at PGA National in 2019, home of Straka's only Tour win prior to last year's triumph here.
John Deere Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Denny McCarthy (22-1)
Over the last two years, McCarthy has shot 66 or better five times which has led to back-to-back T6 results. He ranks second in SG: Putting this year, and his lack of distance off the tee isn't much of a detriment here.
Maverick McNealy (25-1)
Similar to McCarthy, the talent level is too good for McNealy not to win soon. He's missed just one cut all year and has three top-25s over his last four events. McNealy has also played well here, finishing T18 and T8 in his last two appearances.
Jason Day (30-1)
This will only be the fourth time this year that Day is playing in a non-signature event, so a drop down in competition should be what he needs to break out of a mediocre year by his standards that still includes four top-10s. His short game (48th in SG: Around the green and ninth in putting) remains strong.
John Deere Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Doug Ghim (11-2)
Coming off a pair of top-10 hits last week with Luke Clanton and J.J. Spaun, I'll start this week with Ghim who ranks 27th in driving accuracy and 17th in SG: Approach this year. That's a good recipe for success, and he's also an Illinois native that ranked second in approach here in 2021.
Brendon Todd (17-2)
These are some generous odds for Todd, who was in contention to win last year before faltering late to finish T2. He has a pair of top-10s over his last 12 starts and is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour.
Zach Johnson (12-1)
If you like the course history angle, it's difficult to find anyone that's had more consistent success than the Iowa native. Over his last 14 appearances, he's never missed the cut and has a win and seven top-5s.
John Deere Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup
Eric Cole (-115) over Ben Griffin
Cole finally found his form, finishing T6 in Detroit last week for his first top-10 since February. I think that's a sign of things to come the rest of the summer. He matches up here against Griffin, who outside of a runner-up finish in Canada, has a best finish of T31 over his last six starts. He also has the disadvantage of this being his first trip to the venue.
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