2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on October 17, 2023 7:39PM EST

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Betting Preview

Following an exciting week in Las Vegas that saw Tom Kim successfully defend his title at the Shriners Children's Open, the PGA Tour heads to Japan for the annual ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Added to the schedule in 2019, this is the third time this event will be held at Narashino Country Club just outside of Tokyo. The field is noticeably stronger than we've seen at other fall events, as 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee it up. That group is headlined by tournament favorite Xander Schauffele, who checks in with 7-1 odds. Unlike the other fall events, this is a no-cut, 78-player field and includes several golfers who play primarily on the Japan Tour.

Last year, Keegan Bradley -- at 35-1 --PGA picked up fifth Tour victory with a one-shot victory over Rickie Fowler and Andrew Putnam.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:30 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Narshino plays as a par-70 at 7,041 yards, so it's a short course by Tour standards. There are five par-3s, three par-5s and a mixture of short and long par-4s, with four under 410 yards and five over 480 yards. Unfortunately, this isn't a venue that tracks Strokes Gained data, but we can determine based on the players that have finished at top of the leaderboard that it tends to favor longer hitters over the more accurate ones. With the winning score being only 15-under-par each of the last two years, it's a difficult venue that will put an emphasis on play around the greens.

Going Low at Narashino

The following five golfers, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Narashino Country Club.

Matsuyama has been dominant in his home country, finishing runner-up in his debut before coasting to a five-shot victory two years ago. But will the home-field advantage right the ship? Matsuyama has just two top-10s this year and withdrew with a back injury last time he teed it up, which was all the way back in August at the BMW Championship. Right behind him on this list is the defending champion, who has clearly taken a liking to the course with finishes of T13 and T7 in addition to his win. Last year's victory ended a four-year drought for Bradley, who proved it wasn't a fluke with another trophy this summer. The biggest question mark will be how he handles a nearly two-month layoff, but at 22-1, he's a nice value as the ninth choice on the board.

Tee-to-Green Titans

These golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds:

Morikawa is the class of this field when it comes to tee-to-green efficiency, as he sits second in approach and 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee. However, he has had only modest results at Narashino, posting finishes of T22, T7 and T45 in three appearances. He's the second choice on the board at 11-1. Schauffele and Im land on both lists, with both faring well during the FedExCup Playoffs and on this course. While Schauffele is the man to beat this week, Im isn't too far behind at 14-1.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Outright Picks

Rickie Fowler (16-1)

Last time we saw Fowler he was struggling at the Ryder Cup, but he reportedly wasn't feeling well and has never thrived in that format. He has been excellent in stroke-play events this season and held the 54-hole lead here a year ago.

Adam Scott (25-1)

While it has been a relatively quiet year for Scott, he's still gaining 0.89 strokes on a per-round basis when combing the off-the-tee and approach numbers. Plus, his weakness -- being sporadic with the driver -- isn't much of a detriment here. Scott played in the Japan Open last week, so he won't have to deal with the jet lag that a lot of participants will.

Adam Schenk (35-1)

Schenk is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, but he's playing too well for that drought to last much longer. He lost in a playoff at Colonial this summer, was just one back at the Valspar and was in the mix late at the John Deere.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Other Wagers

Davis Riley
Top-10 Finish: 13-2

The oddsmakers are only giving Riley about a 13 percent chance at a top-10 finish, which looks like solid value considering the small field and how good of a ball striker he is. To be precise, he ranks 52nd in driving distance and 41st in SG: Approach this season. His results have been mediocre of late, but his irons were sharp last week and he tends to play better on tougher setups.

Alex Noren
Top-5 Finish: 9-1

Noren finished a respectable T18 in his lone appearance here two years ago, and he comes in hot off a T3 finish at the Shriners in which he ranked top-10 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach. That bodes well considering his short game is one of the best in the world.

K.H. Lee
Top-5 Finish: 10-1

Lee struggled mightily this summer, missing seven of eight cuts to end his season, but he's turned it around this fall with a pair of top-15s. The break clearly did him some good -- he was fourth in SG: Approach in Napa and his T7 in Vegas was his best result of the season.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Thomas Detry (-120) over Emiliano Grillo

I went 2-for-2 on matchups last week, so let's make it four in a row. Grillo is off to a rough start this fall with back-to-back missed cuts, and he was awful with his irons over his last three tournaments. Detry will be making his debut in Japan but should be a good course fit with his superb length and strong putting over the last couple months.

J.J. Spaun (-110) over Adam Svensson

In a competition between two pretty even players, I like the Spaun side, as he has been better around the greens and is the superior iron player among the two. While Svensson has been on a nice run lately, Spaun has made seven cuts in a row himself and finished T25 here last year. In the same tournament Svensson posted a T59.

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