2023 The Genesis Invitational Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on February 14, 2023

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads back to California for the final stop on the West Coast Swing -- The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles.

It's the second straight designated event on the schedule and another $20 million purse comes with it. The much-anticipated return of Tiger Woods is the big news of the week, as he will be teeing it up for the first time since The Open Championship last July. Also in the field are tournament favorite Jon Rahm -- at 15-2 odds -- and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at 10-1. They are among 23 of the top 25 players making the trip.

Last year, Joaquin Niemann -- at 60-1 -- picked up his second PGA Tour victory by two shots over Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young. Niemann will not be on hand this week to defend his title.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-71, 7,322 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The Genesis Invitational Winners Since 2018

SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.6
SG: Approach: 9.2
SG: Around-the-Green: 14.6
SG: Putting: 17.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.0
Driving Distance: 15.8
Driving Accuracy: 45.6

Riviera plays as one of the tougher tests on Tour and doesn't provide many scoring opportunities outside of the short and downhill par-5 first hole that plays more like a par-4. The par-3s average nearly 200 yards and all but two of the par-4s are under 430 yards. One of those is one of the most recognizable holes on Tour in the driveable par-4 10th that is surrounded by bunkers -- a risk/reward hole that will yield birdies and also plenty of double bogeys. Tee-to-green play has been a key to success, with the champion ranking top-3 in that category three straight years. Distance off the tee gets a premium over accuracy due to a lack of deep rough or hazards. I'll be targeting players that do a good job of avoiding bogeys and those that approach it well from 150-200 yards, with many iron shots coming in that range.

Regal at Riviera

The following golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Riviera County Club over the last five years.

Hovland will be making his third trip to Riviera. He found immediate success, notching back-to-back top-5 finishes. He has excelled with his ball striking at this venue, ranking top-20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach both years. He's due for a bounceback following a mediocre T42 in Phoenix, where he lost 4.6 shots around the green and putting combined. Meanwhile, the only two-time winner in the field is Scott, who went 15 years between victories before coming out on top in 2020. Despite a strong finish to last season and a runner-up at the Australian Open in December, he seems somewhat overlooked by the oddsmakers, ranking outside the top 20 choices on the board at 55-1. I like Scott as a mid-range DFS option as well.

Trending in Tee-to-Green

These five players gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

After winning in his first two appearances of the season -- one on the PGA Tour and one on the DP World Tour -- McIlroy disappointed in his stateside debut last week with a T32 finish. Even so, he did gain strokes in every category except for putting. The Phoenix Open is not his preferred scene, and he should enjoy going back to Riviera, where he finished top-10 in three of his last four visits. Popping up on both lists are Finau (16-1) and Morikawa (20-1), who both have a runner-up here and have been in good form this season. Morikawa is looking to bounce back from a missed cut, and considering his struggles came in the short game, it seems there is a good possibility he will.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Outright Picks

Justin Thomas (16-1)

Thomas surged back into form last week with his first top-5 finish since June, ranking third for the tournament in SG: Off-the-Tee and second in SG: Tee-to-Green. It was only a matter of time for the superb ball striker, who gained 8.8 strokes with his long game in Phoenix. He notched three top-10s at Riviera over his last five appearances.

Xander Schauffele (16-1)

Schauffele's results in this event have been consistent, as he has posted a top-25 in all five of his starts, although just one top-10. He started out strong last week with consecutive rounds of 67, so the form is there as well. He appears to be close to putting it all together and winning again soon.

Will Zalatoris (40-1)

I'm not sure if Zalatoris is 100 percent after taking last week off following a missed cut at the Farmers, but at these odds I'm willing to take the risk. He's finished T26 and T15 in his two appearances at Riviera and ranked 10th in SG: Approach here last year.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Alex Noren (13-2)

Coming off a top-10 with Hatton last week, I'll look at another European in Noren, who has a decent track record here, with four made cuts in four starts and a pair of top-20s. He closed last season with a top-5 in Houston and started the year with another one in a solid field in Abu Dhabi, so I'm going to overlook last week's missed cut.

Wyndham Clark (7-1)

Since last summer Clark has become more than your average Tour professional, recording seven top-20 finishes over his last 20 starts, including a top-10 last week. He's a great course fit for Riviera, with his only weakness being that he's sporadic off the tee. That won't be as much of a detriment as usual considering how difficult it is for even the most accurate drivers to hit the Riviera fairways at a high clip.

Cam Davis (12-1)

Davis has been trending in the wrong direction, but with that comes value, and he does rank 20th in SG: Off-the-Tee despite his struggles. Most of his troubles have been in the short game, so I like his chances to finish near the top of the leaderboard if he can right the ship in that area.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Sam Burns (-120) over Cameron Young

Young broke through at this event last year with a T2, but he is in the midst of a bit of a sophomore slump. Burns, on the other hand, is full of confidence on the heels of consecutive top-15 results. He has also had success here, notching a third-place finish in 2021. That's enough for me to pay up slightly on the narrow favorite.

Corey Conners (-110) over Keith Mitchell

Conners lacks a top-10 showing through seven starts this season, but we don't necessarily need one in a one-on-one bet. He made the cut in six of his last seven starts and has done so despite ranking 165th in SG: Putting. This is an event Mitchell has traditionally skipped because it doesn't fit his game well, but it's hard to pass up these designated events. He missed the cut in his only appearance in 2019.

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